RADIO
Welcome to Week 9 of the WR/CB Matchup chart. Last week DFS players needed to have A.J. Brown and Michael Pittman Jr. in their lineups to have any shot to win a big tournament. Both were highlighted in the Week 8 chart.
Unfortunately, my preferred strategy was to play one of those WRs and run it back with the opposing RB on the other side. I wish I had paid more attention to the chart. Week 8 is proof that in some cases, understanding matchups can give you an edge.
Creating the weekly matchup chart has been more challenging than usual this year due to the fact that most teams are moving their WRs around more than they ever have. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-v-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week. The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers, if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.
While matchups do matter and every piece of information can give you an edge, it is important to understand that WR skill level and target share are more predictive than matchup in many cases. Blindly following the chart is not recommended, but it can be useful in making tough lineup decisions between two WRs close in skill level. The chart is best used to understand the context of matchups overall, not predict outcomes.
WR vs. CB Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.
The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on the right side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy matchup. WRs highlighted in light red have a tough matchup. The chart is a useful tool, but should not be used as a start/sit cheatsheet.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Week 9
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WR/CB Matchups to Target
We start on Thursday Night when Mike freaking White and the Jets travel to Indy to take on the Colts. Rock Ya-Sin is back for the Indianapolis defense, but the Colts have still given up the most FPPG to opposing RWRs this season. Denzel Mims actually played more snaps at RWR than Elijah Moore last week, but all Jets outside WRs get a bump with Tom Brady Jr. at the helm.
Brandin Cooks produced in a relatively tough matchup last week against the Rams, and this week gets the underperforming Dolphins secondary. Cooks should cook in this spot.
DeAndre Hopkins is banged up and had an underwhelming performance last week in a dream matchup against the Packers. San Francisco has been bad against WR1s since Josh Norman signed with them. Assuming a full workload, Hopkins is in a nice bounce-back spot.
The Bears have been one of the easiest matchups for RWRs. Diontae Johnson played more LWR than RWR last week so he will likely see more Jaylon Johnson. Chase Claypool on the other side should draw the easier matchup against Kindle Vildor.
The Packers will have their work cut out for them defending Tyreek Hill. Rookie Eric Stokes has actually played some shadow coverage and could potentially follow Hill around the formation. Whether it's Stokes, Rasul Douglas, or Chandon Sullivan, Hill will have an obvious quickness and speed advantage.
Emmanuel Sanders is coming off a big fat zero but has an easy matchup as the WR2 against Jacksonville. The Bills move Stefon Diggs and Sanders around a lot, but Sanders plays more RWR than any other Buffalo receiver. The Jags give up the fifth-most FPPG against opposing RWRs. Jacksonville also struggles defending the slot, which puts Cole Beasley squarely in range for a big day.
Jerry Jeudy didn't do much with a lighter workload than usual coming off injury last week. This week his snaps and production should increase matched up against Jourdan Lewis, the very burnable Cowboys slot corner.
The Eagles have been stellar defending outside receivers but aren't stout versus slots. Keenan Allen should have no issue with Avonte Maddox on Sunday.
Darnell Mooney is also in a good spot, as the Steelers have not been great defending slots all year.
Finally, all three starting Rams receivers are in smash spots against a leaky Titans CB group. Expect Cooper Kupp to continue on his historic pace, while Robert Woods and Van Jefferson are also more than viable starts. I wonder if anyone wrote a bold predictions article that predicted a big season from Kupp?
WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade
Laviska Shenault Jr. has been a gigantic bust this season and gets Tre'Davious White in Week 9. On the other side, Marvin Jones Jr. also has a tough matchup as the Bills have been terrific at limiting outside receiver fantasy production.
Falcons LCB A.J. Terrell deserves a shoutout as he's been terrific all season. The Falcons give up the fewest FPPG to opposing RWRs, so Tre'Quan Smith isn't a preferred sleeper.
Trevon Diggs might not be the best cover man in the league, but he and the Cowboys have been good at limiting opposing WR1s all year. Courtland Sutton will have a tough matchup.
On the other side of that game, Amari Cooper will have to deal with the tough Broncos CB duo of Ronald Darby and Patrick Surtain II. Cooper is matchup-proof for the most part but he does post some duds. This could be a spot for one.
DeVonta Smith has been a ghost recently with Jalen Hurts struggling as a passer. This week both he and Quez Watkins will see the tough outside coverage of the Chargers CB duo. They aren't recommended plays unless you have no other good options.
Bryan Edwards could be seeing more targets in the future with Henry Ruggs III out of the picture, but Adoree Jackson has been a tough matchup for opposing LWRs all year.
Mike Williams got Belichick'ed last week and this week has to deal with Darius Slay and Steven Nelson. The Eagles give up the fewest FPPG to opposing WR1s.
A.J. Brown is coming off a monster performance against the Colts and should be looking at a ton of usage going forward. You aren't sitting Brown, but he does have a tough matchup against the Rams, who have limited RWR production all year.
Kadarius Toney didn't do much in Kansas City on Monday Night, and now has to deal with Casey Hayward. He's always a threat with the ball in his hands but this is a tough spot.
Robby Anderson continues to be a major disappointment. His direct alignment matchup this week projects to be J.C. Jackson, which would be more bad news. However, it is very possible the Patriots choose to shadow D.J. Moore with Jackson, which would put a slight damper on Moore's outlook. Regardless, the most important factor for the Panthers WR group is how well P.J. Walker plays at QB.
A.J. Green is likely out this week, which should mean Christian Kirk plays more outside snaps, while Rondale Moore sees a bump in snaps and possibly touches. The 49ers are stout against RWRs and slots, so both aren't in great spots. However, volume supersedes matchup in most cases, especially for an explosive offense. Even with slight matchup downgrades, Kirk and Moore are worth a shot with DeAndre Hopkins banged up and Green out.
Tyler Boyd produced in a tough matchup last week but could fall back to earth in a tough matchup against Troy Hill in Week 9.
Mecole Hardman is catching more passes overall but hasn't really broken out in a struggling Chiefs offense. The Packers defend slots well, which makes me think KC will choose to align Tyreek Hill more outside while Hardman gets swallowed up by the good Green Bay slot defense.
Jamison Crowder has a tough matchup against Kenny Moore, but I'd have no problem taking a shot based on projected elite QB play.
That was a joke. I think.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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