RADIO
Welcome to the second WR/CB Matchups article of the 2021 NFL season. My goal last year was to create the first fully free WR/CB matchups article to share with the fantasy football community. I appreciate all the support and feedback I received. If you enjoy my work, please follow me on Twitter @draft32teams. My process includes a close study of college draft prospects, so I've scouted the majority of NFL CBs even before they step foot on an NFL field. I love fantasy football, but my real passion is scouting players for the NFL Draft.
The Week 1 chart was not very predictive overall, but some of the points highlighted in the article gave solid actionable advice. Going into Week 1, I had to piece together depth charts without confirmation about how teams would deploy their WRs and DBs. Week 1 snap and alignment data is now reflected in the Week 2 chart, so everything will be more accurate going forward. There is no guarantee that teams will deploy and align their WRs and DBs the same way they did in Week 1, but the chart reflects where players lined up the majority of the time.
Compiling this data and writing this article each week has made it clear that while matchups do matter, a receiver's talent and target share are more important than his opposition in many cases. This point is extremely important to understand. The PPGA (points per game allowed) numbers align much more closely with the skill level of the WR each CB faced rather than the skill level of the CB himself. For example, Tyreek Hill had a boom game and played mostly RWR. Denzel Ward is still one of the better cover corners in the league, but he was assigned those points. On the flip side, bad corners may have low PPGA because they faced a WR group or offense that simply isn't that good or doesn't target that position much. Nate Hobbs may turn out to be a guy to target against, but he faced off against Baltimore's passing attack in Week 1. The Ravens don't exactly have a threatening slot receiver, so his PPGA is low. It's a reminder that we're dealing with minuscule samples and an inexact science.
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Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first being the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science. The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups, rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on the right side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy matchup. WRs highlighted in light red have a tough matchup. The chart is a useful tool, but should not be used as a start/sit cheatsheet.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups - Week 2
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WR/CB Matchups to Target
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers had a tough time against a stout Saints pass defense in Week 1. Fortunately for Green Bay, the Lions outside corners represent an easy matchup for Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Odell Beckham Jr. is still out for Cleveland. Donovan Peoples-Jones gets to face off against Vernon Hargreaves, who has been one of the easiest matchups at CB since he entered the league.
Calvin Ridley and the Falcons started off slow against a tough Eagles secondary, but this week take on the Bucs without Sean Murphy-Bunting. If Tampa Bay chooses to shadow Ridley with Carlton Davis, he should still get enough targets to have a decent game. If the Bucs let Ridley work on Jamel Dean, he should feast.
In that same game, Russell Gage is coming off a zero-catch performance but will face off against Ross Cockrell, who came into the season as Tampa Bay's fourth-best corner. Cockrell is a pro, but it should be a better week for Gage.
Eli Apple was assigned Adam Thielen's big game in Week 1 and has always been a burnable corner. Marquise Goodwin played mostly outside in Week 1 while Darnell Mooney played more slot snaps. Whoever lines up against Apple, including if the Bears move Allen Robinson around, should have a big day.
On the other side, Bears nickel back Marqui Christian was torn apart by Cooper Kupp in Week 1. Tyler Boyd didn't fare well against the formidable Mackensie Alexander, but Christian represents an easy matchup.
K.J. Hamler dropped a long would-be TD against the Giants, but with Jerry Jeudy down, I expect him to get the most slot snaps for the Broncos. Tyson Campbell was not good in his Week 1 debut against Houston and doesn't have the profile to contain the smaller, quicker Hamler.
The Steelers defense played admirably in Week 1 against Buffalo, but starting slot corner Tre Norwood is a huge question mark. Hunter Renfrow gets an upgrade as a dependable, low aDOT option against a good pass rush.
With Jason Verrett out, the 49ers' CB group has become a weakness, especially on the outside. The Lions don't have a good receiving corps, and even they made a bunch of plays against the San Francisco secondary. I don't know exactly how the Eagles will attack, but their outside receivers have a big-time talent advantage this week. DeVonta Smith and Jalen Reagor get a boost.
Shane Waldron's debut as the Seahawks OC was a smashing success. It was notable that he used Tyler Lockett more as a RWR than slot in Week 1. We will monitor this going forward but if Lockett gets matched up with the slow-footed Elijah Molden on the inside, he should have another big week.
Keenan Allen made a good corner in Kendall Fuller look bad in Week 1. This week he gets Jourdan Lewis, who was torched by Chris Godwin in Week 1 and has not been good at limiting fantasy points as a pro.
WR/CB Matchups to Avoid
Part of the reason I like writing this article each week is to give some exposure to defensive players who most people might not pay much attention to. Trevon Diggs was outstanding against Mike Evans in Week 1, and will likely shadow opposing WR1s in future matchups. Mike Williams also played well in Week 1, so this matchup is a great one on paper. If Diggs limits Williams, we may be looking at a tough matchup CB going forward.
Jalen Ramsey was used all over the formation against the Bears, as he actually led the Rams' DBs in slot snaps. If he's the Rams' slot corner in nickel packages, opposing slots will get downgrades every week. I don't expect a repeat performance from Zach Pascal in Week 2, and both Michael Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell will have to deal with enough of Ramsey and Darious Williams that they get downgrades.
Marshon Lattimore is out for the Saints, which means Desmond Trufant will likely be matched up with D.J. Moore. On the other side, Paulson Adebo had an awesome first game at LCB and should see more of Robby Anderson. The Saints defense is tough and Sam Darnold is still learning a new offense. Anderson gets a slight downgrade.
Terry McLaurin had an underwhelming Week 1 and saw his starting QB go down. Things don't get easier on Thursday night as he should see a healthy amount of James Bradberry. Adoree Jackson isn't bad either. Dyami Brown may pop off at some point this year but I don't think Thursday is his breakout either.
The Eagles defense was very impressive against the Falcons in Week 1 as Steven Nelson and Darius Slay shut down the outside passing attack. Avonte Maddox is generally exploitable, but even he held Russell Gage without a catch. Deebo Samuel is coming off a monster week, but neither he or Brandon Aiyuk has a good matchup.
The Seahawks used the burnable Tre Flowers at RCB in Week 1 and he did well to limit the Colts' outside receivers. This week he'll see tougher competition in A.J. Brown and should have his hands full. On the other side, Julio Jones is in a clear bounce-back spot after being called out by his coach. Unfortunately, he'll see D.J. Reed who has been above average since he earned the starting LCB job last season.
Brandin Cooks made plays against the Jaguars' questionable CB group in Week 1, and will likely be used all over the formation again this week. He played more slot snaps than any other Texans receiver, which is why I have him matched up against Troy Hill on the chart. Hill is a tough matchup and both Cleveland outside corners are better than they showed against Tyreek Hill.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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