RADIO
Welcome to the third WR/CB Matchups article of the 2021 NFL season. My goal last year was to create the first fully free WR/CB matchups article to share with the fantasy football community. I appreciate all the support and feedback I received. If you enjoy my work, please follow me on Twitter @draft32teams. My process includes a close study of college draft prospects, so I've scouted the majority of NFL CBs even before they step foot on an NFL field. I love fantasy football, but my real passion is scouting players for the NFL Draft.
Compiling this data and writing this article each week has made it clear that while matchups do matter, a receiver's talent and target share are more important than his opposition in many cases. This point is extremely important to understand. The PPGA (points per game allowed) numbers align much more closely with the skill level of the WR each CB faced rather than the skill level of the CB himself. For example, in Week 1, Tyreek Hill had a boom game and played mostly RWR. Denzel Ward is still one of the better cover corners in the league, but he was assigned those points. On the flip side, bad corners may have low PPGA because they faced a WR group or offense that simply isn't that good or doesn't target that position much. It's a reminder that we're dealing with minuscule samples and an inexact science.
I've decided to change the name of the article from "Matchups to Target and Avoid" to "Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade." Too many times a WR has a tough matchup and produces anyway. A difficult matchup is not a guarantee that a WR will underwhelm. On the flip side, an easy matchup doesn't always mean a huge game. There are a myriad of reasons a player might fail in an easy matchup and excel in a tough one. The chart is best used to understand the context of matchups overall, not predict outcomes.
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Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first being the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science. The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on the right side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy matchup. WRs highlighted in light red have a tough matchup. The chart is a useful tool, but should not be used as a start/sit cheatsheet.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups - Week 3
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WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade
We'll start with Thursday night when the Texans burnable outside corners match up with a revived Sam Darnold and the Panthers. Thursday night games can be weird, but it's an easy matchup for both D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson. Anderson actually played more slot snaps than Terrace Marshall Jr. in Week 2, but no one in the Texans' secondary has Anderson's speed.
Cardinals rookie RCB Marco Wilson has not been good to start the year. D.J. Chark gets an upgrade in a game environment where the Jaguars will likely need to pass a lot.
Kenny Golladay made headlines for all the wrong reasons after a disappointing performance against the Washington Football Team last Thursday. Fabian Moreau and the soft Falcons pass defense is just what he needs to bounce back. Darius Slayton also gets a bump. Golladay and Slayton have split time on each side of the formation, and it doesn't really matter which Atlanta outside CB lines up opposite them. Both have struggled and don't have the luxury of a pass rush.
Marquise Brown has started off hot and both he and Sammy Watkins have easy matchups against the burnable Lions' outside corners. With Jeff Okudah and Ifeatu Melifonwu down for Detroit, UDFA Bobby Price and our toasty friend Amani Oruwariye should allow for big games from one or both of Brown and Watkins.
Cooper Kupp is the WR1 through two weeks, which shouldn't surprise anyone who read my bold predictions article. He should keep the good times rolling in a shootout against the Bucs. Van Jefferson will see a bunch of Jamel Dean, which makes him a decent play as well.
Michael Pittman Jr. is coming off a big performance in Week 2, and this week gets the reeling Titans pass defense, which has been embarrassing so far this year. None of the other Colts WRs are amazing plays, especially with questions at QB and Carson Wentz a longshot to play, but all have an easy matchup.
Stefon Diggs is due for more volume going forward and the duo of Benjamin St. Juste and William Jackson has not been good at RCB for the Washington Football Team. I expect Diggs to feast.
Eli Apple is turning into a smash target and this week he should draw a lot of Chase Claypool. Claypool could boom, assuming Ben Roethlisberger is good to go.
While Trevon Diggs has been awesome so far, Dallas has struggled mightily against RWRs and slots. While the Eagles move their WRs around quite a bit, I expect Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins to enjoy the easy matchups while DeVonta Smith draws Diggs.
The Colts have been bad against RWRs, which is where A.J. Brown lines up most with Julio Jones in Tennessee. Brown struggled with drops and D.J. Reed last week, but is in a great bounce-back spot against Indy in Week 3.
Will this be the year Tyler Lockett sheds the "inconsistent" label? He gets yet another juicy matchup against Bashaud Breeland on Sunday and could smash again.
WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade
Terry McLaurin laughed when he read this article last week and proceeded to shred James Bradberry and the Giants pass defense. Staying true to the process, he has another tough matchup this week against Tre'Davious White. I'll make this point again - while matchups do matter, a receiver's talent and target share are more important than his opposition in many cases. Don't sit McLaurin, but don't be surprised if he has a down game.
The Browns have been tough on opposing LWRs so far this season. Allen Robinson moves around the formation a lot but he may not have huge numbers in Justin Fields' first start against the formidable Cleveland secondary.
Do the Chargers have the best secondary in the NFL? Maybe, and now Derwin James is playing slot corner. You obviously aren't benching Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce, but it might not be the best week to target the Chiefs' ancillary receivers.
If the Chargers don't have the best secondary in the NFL, then the Rams might. You probably aren't benching any Tampa Bay receivers but it seems likely that at least one of them will have a down game against Jalen Ramsey and company.
One of the biggest surprises of the first two weeks from a DB standpoint has been the play of the Eagles corners. Steven Nelson and Darius Slay could make things difficult for the Dallas WRs. While Avonte Maddox hasn't usually been good, he's given up very little to opposing slot receivers so far this year. I wouldn't sit Cowboys, but Monday Night may not be the shootout fantasy players want.
Adam Thielen's TD regression may simply never come, but he does get the much tougher draw against Seahawks LCB D.J. Reed.
Lastly, the Saints have been tough against slots this year, so I don't think Jakobi Meyers' breakout game will come this week.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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