RADIO
Welcome to the fourth WR/CB Matchups article of the 2021 NFL season. My goal last year was to create the first fully free WR/CB matchups article to share with the fantasy football community. I appreciate all the support and feedback I received. If you enjoy my work, please follow me on Twitter @draft32teams. My process includes a close study of college draft prospects, so I've scouted the majority of NFL CBs even before they step foot on an NFL field. I love fantasy football, but my real passion is scouting players for the NFL Draft.
Compiling this data and writing this article each week has made it clear that while matchups do matter, a receiver's talent and target share are more important than his opposition in many cases. This point is extremely important to understand. The PPGA (points per game allowed) numbers align much more closely with the skill level of the WR each CB faced rather than the skill level of the CB himself. For example, in Week 1, Tyreek Hill had a boom game and played mostly RWR. Denzel Ward is still one of the better cover corners in the league, but he was assigned those points. On the flip side, bad corners may have low PPGA because they faced a WR group or offense that simply isn't that good or doesn't target that position much. It's a reminder that we're dealing with small samples and an inexact science.
I've decided to change the name of the article from "Matchups to Target and Avoid" to "Matchups to Target and Downgrade." Too many times a WR has a tough matchup and produces anyway. A difficult matchup is not a guarantee that a WR will underwhelm. On the flip side, an easy matchup doesn't always mean a huge game. There are a myriad of reasons a player might fail in an easy matchup and excel in a tough one. The chart is best used to understand the context of matchups overall, not predict outcomes.
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Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first being the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science. The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on the right side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy matchup. WRs highlighted in light red have a tough matchup. The chart is a useful tool, but should not be used as a start/sit cheatsheet.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups - Week 4
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WR/CB Matchups to Target
We start with Thursday Night Football when the banged-up Bengals secondary takes on Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. Trae Waynes will likely be back for Cincy, but Chidobe Awuzie is banged up and Eli Apple has been awful. Both outside WRs for the Jags get an upgrade. I project Marvin Jones Jr. to see more of Apple based on past alignment tendencies. Let's pray for fewer injuries than last week.
On the other side of that game, the C.J. Henderson-less Jags secondary represents an easy matchup for Joe Burrow's weapons. Shaquil Griffin is now playing RCB and has been a better player in the past than he's shown so far this year. The Jags have also been burned more by RWRs and slots than the LWR position, so I am not upgrading Ja'Marr Chase by that much. If Tee Higgins plays, he sees a bump. Tyler Boyd is also in a good spot. As a reminder, the vast majority of NFL teams move their WRs around the formation, so it's very possible Chase plays some RWR this week.
UPDATE: Higgins has officially been ruled out.
DeVonta Smith has been underwhelming the past two weeks, but Kansas City has been awful against opposing LWRs so far this year. Smith moves around the formation, but he has a great opportunity this week to feast against guys like Mike Hughes.
Tre Flowers is one of the worst starting CBs in the NFL and fresh off giving up a dominant day to Justin Jefferson. Brandon Aiyuk seems to be out of Kyle Shanahan's doghouse, so a big week is a possibility.
On the other side of that game, the 49ers outside CBs are banged up, which represents a smash spot for D.K. Metcalf. Tyler Lockett has been playing more outside, so him popping off as well is not out of the question.
Mac Jones and the Patriots haven't had the best matchups for passing production thus far, but this week get a Bucs pass D that has been suspect at best in 2021. The only thing holding back the Pats' pass catchers against a pass funnel defense is volume and their rookie QB. I expect at least one of Nelson Agholor or Jakobi Meyers to have a big game in Brady's return to Foxborough.
The Washington defense has been horrible to start the year, so look for Calvin Ridley to have his best game of the season in Week 4.
As far as good slot matchups for super deep options, Amon-Ra St. Brown gets the burnable Duke Shelley, while Braxton Berrios (or Jamison Crowder) gets the slow-footed Elijah Molden. Meanwhile, Zach Pascal will take on a Miami nickel duo that was just roasted by Hunter Renfrow, and the Panthers trio of starting receivers gets to take on Jourdan Lewis, who has been an easy matchup his entire career. The Panthers move their WRs around a lot, so D.J. Moore or even Milk Carton Robby Anderson could be benefactors this week. However, Terrace Marshall Jr. plays the most slot, which is why he's listed there.
WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade
The Browns defense is coming off a dominant performance against the Bears and has been terrific at limiting LWRs all year. You aren't sitting Justin Jefferson, but he gets a downgrade this week. I'm watching Greg Newsome closely as a rookie standout.
Speaking of young breakout players, Trevon Diggs yet again played fantastic this past week. D.J. Moore is awesome and very well could make a bunch of plays against Diggs. It's just not an easy spot.
Marquise Brown is coming off an incredibly disappointing showing against the Lions, and things will be much tougher against the Broncos formidable defense this week. Patrick Surtain II is right next to Greg Newsome in the DROY race through three weeks.
Xavier Rhodes is back for the Colts, and I believe their secondary will improve as the season goes on. DeVante Parker isn't in a great spot this week.
Bryan Edwards has flashed at times for the 3-0 Raiders, but all three Las Vegas WRs have tough matchups against the Chargers' terrific secondary. Edwards, Henry Ruggs III, and Hunter Renfrow all get downgrades, but it's highly unlikely that all three disappoint in a game with a 52.5-point total.
Brandin Cooks has been awesome so far, but this week will be his toughest matchup against a Buffalo pass D that has been excellent at limiting opposing WR production.
CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper didn't do much against a tough Eagles' secondary, and things don't get much easier against the Panthers. Both always have the potential to pop off, but the matchup is a difficult one.
Speaking of the Eagles' secondary, this week they take on Tyreek Hill and the Chiefs. You obviously aren't sitting Hill, but if he pops off I expect it to be from the slot as Steven Nelson and Darius Slay have both been above average so far.
The Steelers offense has been a mess with a decrepit Ben Roethlisberger at the helm, and one outside WR will have to deal with Jaire Alexander on every snap. Depending on the status of their starters, it could be Chase Claypool, who will have to overcome this matchup with his size.
A.J. Green is coming off a 100-yard game, but this week takes on a Rams' secondary that has been stingy against RWRs since Darious Williams took over at LCB last season.
Parris Campbell probably isn't being started in any leagues and has to deal with Xavien Howard, while the Bucs WR2 spot (Antonio Brown, Scotty Miller, or Tyler Johnson) gets a downgrade facing J.C. Jackson.
The Texans don't have much going for them as a franchise, but Desmond King has always been a tough slot corner. The Bills should be able to do whatever they want against Houston, but the better matchups are on the outside, which means Cole Beasley gets a downgrade.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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