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WR/CB Matchups to Target and Downgrade - Week 8

D.J. Moore - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

You did it. You survived Bye Week Hell. You were also lucky enough to avoid Allen Robinson in all your drafts. I know this because anyone who drafted Allen Robinson has surely quit fantasy football by now and wouldn't be reading this article.

Creating the weekly matchup chart has been more challenging than usual this year due to the fact that most teams are moving their WRs around more than they ever have. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-v-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week. The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers, if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.

While matchups do matter and every piece of information can give you an edge, it is important to understand that WR skill level and target share are more predictive than matchup in many cases. Blindly following the chart is not recommended, but it can be useful in making tough lineup decisions between two WRs close in skill level. The chart is best used to understand the context of matchups overall, not predict outcomes.

 

WR vs. CB Chart Details

The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.

The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on the right side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.

The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy matchup. WRs highlighted in light red have a tough matchup. The chart is a useful tool, but should not be used as a start/sit cheatsheet.

 

Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Week 8

Click image for full-screen view

 

WR/CB Matchups to Target

We start with the biggest game of the season so far when the 6-1 Packers travel to the desert to take on Kyler Murray and the undefeated Cardinals on Thursday night. With Jaire Alexander still out, the Packers have given up the most fantasy PPG to opposing WR1s. DeAndre Hopkins has the dreamiest of dream matchups here. He was questionable throughout the week but is playing and should be a surefire WR1.

On the other side, Davante Adams and Allen Lazard are out, which should open up healthy target shares for Aaron Jones, Randall Cobb, Robert Tonyan, and possibly A.J. Dillon. We don't know if Marquez Valdes-Scantling will be back from injury, but he would become their best outside option if he is active. The Cardinals have given up an above-average amount of points to both LWRs and RWRs so MVS would be a decent streamer if he does play.

The Panthers' offense has been a mess without Christian McCaffrey, but D.J. Moore is in a bounce-back spot against Atlanta's Fabian Moreau. It is fair to have some concern over how bad Sam Darnold has looked. Still, Moore is talented enough to produce without great QB play.

The Chiefs are fresh off being embarrassed by A.J. Brown and Tennessee and have given up the third-most fantasy PPG to opposing WR1s this season. Darius Slayton projects to be the Giants' top outside option on Monday night and could be a sneaky play.

Miami has been extremely disappointing overall, and Byron Jones' regression has been a huge part of their struggles. Jones is banged up and has to take on Josh Allen and the prodigious Bills passing game. Stefon Diggs gets a slight bump, but keep in mind that he and Emmanuel Sanders switch sides a lot and that Diggs will see some Xavien Howard.

The Titans' pass defense was terrific against Kansas City last week but has given up a ton of fantasy points over the course of the year. If T.Y. Hilton is healthy, he'll be a low-end option in an easy matchup. The same goes for Zach Pascal. Michael Pittman Jr. is approaching weekly must-start territory and with an easy matchup this week, he shouldn't be benched unless you have multiple elite alternatives.

The Washington Football Team secondary continues to hemorrhage fantasy points to opposing receiver groups after yet another carving at the hands of Aaron Rodgers last week. Teddy Bridgewater is an underwhelming real-life QB, but he should have no issue helping Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick produce this week. Jerry Jeudy is also expected to be back and should see the most slot snaps of any Broncos receivers. He's a terrific play assuming a full complement of snaps.

Deebo Samuel has been outstanding this season and gets to take on the Bears this week. Chicago has just one good CB in Jaylon Johnson and Samuel moves around the formation. He is obviously an elite play.

Elijah Moore was inefficient as a receiver yet again last week but showed off his wheels on a rushing score against the Patriots. Moore has an advantageous matchup against Eli Apple. Pending QB play, his breakout game could come this week.

While Xavier Rhodes did have some issues with Deebo Samuel last week, he looks to be regaining his form otherwise. Julio Jones will have to deal with more Rhodes, while A.J. Brown will get the easier matchup against Isaiah Rodgers.

Sidney Jones is back for Seattle, which is good news for Marvin Jones. Trevor Lawrence's passing production should start improving and the Seahawks defense represents an easy matchup.

K.J. Osborn has been solid as the third option in Minnesota. The Cowboys give up the most fantasy PPG to opposing slots so he gets a bump.

Finally, I would mention Allen Robinson's easy matchup against Josh Norman, but it would likely just frustrate anyone who's played him because of easy matchups in the past. Thankfully, no one who drafted Allen Robinson reads this article as they have obviously quit fantasy football by now.

 

WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade

One of the reasons I like doing this research and writing this article is to give exposure to CBs who many football fans don't know about. Chidobe Awuzie is a seasoned vet having a career year for the upstart Bengals. It's bad news for Corey Davis.

I've highlighted Tre'Davious White and Trevon Diggs numerous times in this article over the past two years. Justin Jefferson and DeVante Parker (if he plays) get downgrades against two of the premier CBs in the league.

The Chargers have become a run funnel defense and have a stout secondary. Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, and Jakobi Meyers all get downgrades against the Bolts.

The Lions would probably be wise to feature their RBs against the Eagles this week, as Philly has been tough against outside receivers and bad against the run. Kalif Raymond might be working as the WR1 but his matchup is difficult.

Robby Anderson's inefficiency has been astounding and this week he gets the tougher of Atlanta's outside corners in A.J. Terrell. No one is going to start Anderson this week for good reason so naturally, he'll score an 80-yard touchdown.

Tee Higgins commanded an encouraging number of targets last week but didn't do much with them. This week, he gets standout second-year CB Bryce Hall, who has been a tough matchup for WRs all year. Speaking of young standout CBs, Jets rookie slot corner Michael Carter has also been terrific, so Tyler Boyd isn't in the most advantageous spot. Keep in mind that Higgins and Boyd may start being put in schematically favorable positions as defenses try to focus on Ja'Marr Chase. Most people are surprised by Chase's fast start, but I did expect him to be a WR1 this season.

Finally, K'Wuan Williams is back for the 49ers, which is bad news for Darnell Mooney.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week.



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