RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target ~200
CURRENT ADP: 225
ANALYSIS: Zack Cozart had an unimpressive track record going into 2017 and move to a pitcher-friendly park, from Cincinnati to Los Angeles are reason enough to ignore his impressive 2017 numbers (.297/.385/.548 with 24 HR). This view seems to have become common perception, allowing owners willing to look past it an opportunity to buy low on an extremely versatile player. Cozart's breakout was supported by contact quality metrics. He hit more flies (39.9% FB% in 2016 vs. 42.3% last year), ensuring Cozart has the volume of flies necessary to produce homers with middling power.
While his average airborne exit velocity held constant last season (89.5 mph last two years), his rate of Brls/BBE doubled in that time frame (2.3% to 4.4%). He also pulled way more fly balls in 2017 (40.3%) than he has over his career (30.8%). Add in a juiced ball that seems to allow everybody to jack homers, and Cozart's HR/FB spike (15.6% in 2017, 9.5% career) suddenly looks more believable. Cozart's ultimate slot in the Angels batting order is yet to be determined, but it'll be tough to beat the second slot the Reds gave him last year. Still, this is a guy whose perception falls far short of the value he can potentially provide to a fantasy roster.
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