RADIO
There are so many different fantasy football draft strategies nowadays, but no other strategy comes with as much scrutiny and judgment as the zero-running back strategy. For the longest time, the running back position was widely accepted as the most important position in fantasy football. For some, that’s still very much the case. However, with PPR leagues' growing popularity and the utilization of running backs by committee (RBBC), fantasy managers are beginning to take a different approach to this position.
The Zero-RB fantasy football strategy attempts to take advantage of the high injury rate that can often wreak havoc on early-round running backs who are often expected to touch the ball a high number of times each week, increasing the chances for injury. The running back position also tends to have more players found later in fantasy drafts become fantasy relevant. The theory is that you’ll be able to hit on some of these late-round players or waiver wire additions who become starters after an injury in front of them.
If you focus on a quarterback, receiver, and tight end early and are able to hit on a waiver wire addition, your lineup can go into overdrive. Selecting quarterback and receiver early also lowers your chances for a “bust” selection as these players are generally safer. How you want to incorporate a Zero-RB strategy is up to you. Typically, it involves waiting until at least round six to pick your first running back. Some advise waiting even later. We’ll be looking at a few players every fantasy manager should be looking to target at certain spots in their draft if they’re planning on using a Zero-RB strategy.
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Zero RB Early Round Targets: Rounds 6–8
Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers
Simply put, a player like Elijah Mitchell would not have been available in the sixth round 10 years ago. Even five years ago, but as already discussed, the running back position isn’t being valued as highly as it has previously been.
All Mitchell did as a rookie was rack up 1,100 total scrimmage yards on 226 touches and six touchdowns in 11 games. You can currently draft him in Round Six, which is a really good value. Last year, he averaged 20.5 touches per game, which was tied for the seventh-most in the NFL.
As is often the case in early padded practices, a lot of work on the run game. RB Elijah Mitchell is noticeably bulked up a bit from last year to better handle the pounding the job requires. No shortage of touches for him early in camp. For now, at least, the clear RB1.
— Nick Wagoner (@nwagoner) August 1, 2022
He appears locked into the RB1 spot for one of the most rushing attacks in the NFL. If there’s a downside to Mitchell, it’s that he wasn’t very involved in the passing game last season, earning just 1.82 targets per game.
Luckily, the 49ers are a good team and shouldn’t be put into too many negative game scripts. Mitchell is the primary ball-carrier, who should have 15+ touches per game, and has high touchdown potential.
He may not have the typical archetype of the kind of running back fantasy managers are looking for when using a Zero-RB strategy, but with the devaluation of the position, certain running backs that wouldn’t have been around this late are available and that’s a great thing for Zero-RB truthers.
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
Tony Pollard is likely going to be one of the most favorite darlings for Zero-RB strategists this season. For starters, he brings standalone RB3 value in half-PPR leagues and possibly standalone RB2 in full-PPR. The real reason for his value is that if anything happens to Ezekiel Elliott, Pollard becomes a top-10 running back and a league winner.
Unlike Mitchell and Gibson who didn’t fit the Zero-RB mold as much, Pollard definitely does because he’s expected to catch a good number of passes. In fact, his receiving role has grown every year he’s been in the league.
He received 20 targets as a rookie and that doubled to 40 his sophomore season. In 2021, he garnered 46 targets and turned them into a career-high in receptions (39) and yards (337).
Even more impressive, his total touches have grown from 101 as a rookie up to 169 in 2021 and his total scrimmage yards went from 562 (2019) to 628 (2020) to 1,056 (2021). Fantasy managers can clearly see a player who is not only getting better but is becoming more and more utilized within the offense.
Tony Pollard May Get Work Out Of The Slot https://t.co/u1syThKgiR
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) June 13, 2022
With Amari Cooper in Cleveland, Michael Gallup unlikely to play early, and James Washington injuring his foot, Pollard could be looking at an even bigger role in the passing game. Any decline in Elliott’s efficiency could also lead to a bigger role for Pollard.
Regardless, with their current offensive personnel, Pollard is locked in as one of their top play-makers and he’ll enough chances each game to touch the ball – most importantly in the passing game. He’s one of the best Zero-RB targets available early.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs
While Clyde Edwards-Helaire has mostly become a laughing stock of the fantasy football community, fantasy managers would be unwise to dismiss him.
Yes, the Chiefs made a mistake not taking Jonathan and D’Andre Swift ahead of him, but that has no bearing on CEH’s fantasy value. It just means the organization messed up. It also means we, as fantasy managers messed up. Our expectations of CEH were incredibly way too high.
You might be surprised to learn that he finished as the RB22 in half-PPR PPG as a rookie and he was the RB24 in the first four weeks of the 2021 season before suffering a sprained MCL.
Edwards-Helaire dealt with the Covid-19 training camp of 2020 and then had gallbladder surgery where his weight dropped all the way down to 160 prior to the 2021 season. He’s never had a typical, healthy offseason. This will be his first.
As a rookie, despite missing three games, he still finished with 1,100 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns on 217 touches. It really wasn’t all bad. We just remember it being bad because it failed to meet our expectations. Does that mean CEH was bad or our expectations? I’d lean towards the latter.
With Darrel Williams now in Arizona, CEH could be looking at the most involvement he’s ever had in the passing game in Kansas City. This is especially true since Tyreek Hill is in Miami and they’ll be starting three brand new receivers.
When it comes to running backs with the Chiefs’ first team, it’s been Clyde Edwards-Helaire taking the first rep almost every series. Jerick McKinnon has usually been the next up with Isiah Pacheco, Ronald Jones and Derrick Gore and mixing in from time to time.
— Pete Sweeney (@pgsween) August 2, 2022
Fantasy managers don’t need to fade CEH, they just need to alter their expectations. He’s now being drafted outside of the top- 24, which presents value for fantasy managers.
There’s an easy pathway to him being the primary receiving back for the Chiefs, even if he shares some of that role with Jerrick McKinnon and at the end of the day, he’s still a running back on a top-five offense who fantasy managers can get quite cheap.
Chase Edmonds, Miami Dolphins
Chase Edmonds is another running back who fits the more prototypical Zero-RB target we want to target because of his role in the passing game.
The Dolphins made Edmonds a priority this offseason and while they may have also signed Raheem Mostert and Sony Michel, Edmonds received significantly more money and guaranteed money, which should be a sign of how they feel about him compared to the other running backs on their roster.
He was incredibly effective in the passing game last season. He had a 13.4% target share, which ranked seventh among running backs and averaged 1.65 yards per route run, which ranked ninth. He's never going to be a big touchdown guy with his 205-pound frame, but Edmonds is going to remain highly involved in the passing game.
Chase Edmonds is a great value at his ADP (RB35). Here’s why.
- Edmonds left one game early w/just 1 carry.
- In the other 11 games, he had 3+ catches in 9 of them.
- Averaged 10.5 carries per game (178 pace) working primarily behind James Conner for most of the season.
1/ ?— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) June 8, 2022
Not only that, but he was incredibly efficient with his opportunities. He averaged 5.7 yards per touch, which ranked seventh among running backs, according to PlayerProfiler. We also cannot ignore Moster's injury history, which gives Edmonds plenty of upside in the event he's unable to play 17-games.
Chase Edmonds is a screaming value on Underdog at RB34.
He should see 70 targets with relative ease & 150 carries.
Based on his career averages, that would equal 700 rushing yards, 55 catches for 400 yards. Throw in just 4-5 TDs & you have a low end RB2.
Buy Chase Edmonds
— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) May 13, 2022
If you're looking to try a Zero-RB strategy in 2022, Edmonds needs to be on your draft board.
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
He needs to be on fantasy manager's radars at this point. Recent reports are that he has all but locked up the starting role for the Houston Texans and that makes him a viable Zero-RB target.
Dameon Pierce is out here stealing souls with cuts like these
DAME TIME pic.twitter.com/MaDSBewjds
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) August 26, 2022
He's earned the climb atop the depth chart too and it's time for fantasy managers to take notice. As it stands right now, he looks like the clear leader for early down work and goal-line work. That makes for a viable target here in rounds 7–8. He could be looking at 215 carries with the majority of goal-line work. The bigger question is who is going to handle the pass-catching duties? If that continues to Rex Burkhead, as it was last season, Pierce's upside is capped. On a team unlikely to be in many positive game scripts, Pierce could absolutely blow up if he had that role. Still, that upside is worth chasing here.
If Burkhead continues to operate as the primary third-down back, it may have been better to wait on Devin Singletary in the next grouping. However, Singletary has no real upside as a pass-catcher, not with the selection of James Cook. Pierce does. Burkhead is old. Really old and he's never been a great player by any means. It's certainly within the realm of possibility, Pierce works his way into that three-down role and that's worth chasing.
Zero RB Mid-Round Options: Rounds 9–12
Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills
Devin Singletary falls into the same group of runners as Mitchell and Gibson, as these aren't typically the kind of running backs we're targeting in Zero-RB builds, but when starting running backs drop this far, we need to pay attention.
The Bills are widely expected to be a top-three offense, which should present Singletary with plenty of scoring chances and positive game scripts. Yes, Josh Allen will continue to vulture touchdowns and the Bills will continue to rely on their passing game, none of that is going to change. However, Singeltary should still get 13–17 touches per game.
The draft addition of James Cook will likely decrease his role in the passing game, but his experience and veteran status should keep him involved in that area of the game to some extent. There's also no denying just how efficient he was in 2021.
Devin Singletary in 2021:
-12th in @FTNFantasy elusive rating
-11th in missed tackles forced (41)
-4.4 YPC against stacked boxes (8th)Stop sleeping.
— Adam Pfeifer (@APfeifer24) July 2, 2022
He won't always find the end zone, but when he does, he has a lot of potential for big scoring weeks. From Weeks 12–18, he was the RB6 in half-PPR scoring with a 14.3 PPG.
A lot of that was driven by touchdowns, but he still racked up 569 total yards. If you're waiting close to the double-digit rounds while implementing a Zero-RB strategy, grabbing the starting running back for a top-three scoring offense is a viable strategy.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson should be on everyone's radars entering his second season. According to PlayerProfiler, he averaged 3.09 yards created per touch, which ranked 15th among running backs.
He was incredibly efficient and displayed the hard kind of running skills that endears a young player to Bill Belichick. The Patriots' offense is likely going to cater to the running game and in that regard, Damien Harris and Stevenson will carry the vast majority of the load.
Who gets more is slightly irrelevant because we're more interested in who will get the goal line touches and the targets. Based on Harris's 2021 season, fantasy managers should expect Harris to lead in both categories, but the difference is unlikely to be as large as it was last season.
#Patriots top targets in team drills Day 2:
- Tyquan Thornton 4/4
- Hunter Henry 3/4
- Rhamondre Stevenson 3/4
- Jakobi Meyers 3/3
- DeVante Parker 2/3
- Nelson Agholor 1/3 https://t.co/pmMoeyCSp0— Andrew Callahan (@_AndrewCallahan) July 28, 2022
What we have seen in training camp thus far is that Stevenson has been the primary pass-catcher out of the backfield and to this point, it hasn't even been close.
There have been multiple reports of Stevenson running with the 1's and that should give fantasy managers hope the rushing workload may be split more evenly this season. Even if Harris handles most of the red zone work, as long as Stevenson maintains his hold on the pass-catching responsibilities out of the backfield, he'll make a fine Zero-RB target this late in drafts.
With the news of James White's retirement, Stevenson offers plenty of value in this range of fantasy football drafts. If he winds up with a role of 40% of the rushing attempts and 50% of the running back targets, fantasy managers will have found a nice gem this late in the draft.
The other thing to consider with Stevenson is his role in the event of a Damien Harris injury. There were six games last season where Harris either did not play (two games) or played on fewer than 30% of the snaps (four games) and in those games Stevenson had 445 total yards on 97 touches.
He also found the end zone six times. That's an average of 16 touches per game and 74 scrimmage yards. A role in the passing game, which seems to be forming would only help.
Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons
If you're waiting this long for your first running back, Cordarrelle Patterson is one of the best targets of the group and my favorite Zero-RB target in this range. Why? His locked-in receiving role with the Falcons.
Many will forget because Patterson finished the season on a sour note, but from Weeks 1–14, he was the RB7 in half-PPR. He was averaging 15.8 PPG. Let's take that back, okay? From Weeks 1–14, he was the RB7 and averaged 15.8 PPG. The fact that he can be drafted this late is an absolute steal and one every player should be taking advantage of – especially Zero-RB truthers.
He suffered a high ankle sprain late in the season that only forced him to miss one game, an injury other players go on IR for, which is something to consider before we hammer on his disappointing finish to end the year. What has changed to make fantasy managers ignore what he did last year?
The Falcons released poor journeyman Mike Davis and signed another poor journeyman, Damien Williams. That's about the definition of a lateral move. They also drafted Tyler Allgeier. He was an excellent runner at BYU, but to expect him to take over this backfield isn't realistic.
Allgeier is going to have a role – he's going to be the short-yardage, between the tackles, and between the 20-yard lines plodder – and that role comes with very little fantasy value. Allgeier will help take some of the beating off of Patterson and do the things he doesn't do so well, like running into between the tackles.
However, Patterson's role in the passing game will still be there and Patterson is going to be the primary red zone weapon. Last year, Patterson finished with 42 red zone touches, which ranked 18th among all running backs. Patterson's role is the one we want to target for fantasy scoring purposes. Targets plus red zone work equals fantasy football goodness.
You’re too low on Cordarrelle Patterson. Here’s why…
- Played 40%+ of the snaps in 11 games.
- He had 58 targets (5.3 per game). 90 target pace over 17 games.
- Had w/44 catches (4 per game). 68 catch pace over 17.
- Averaged 34.5 yards per game. Pace of 588.
1/ ?— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) June 7, 2022
The Falcons drafted Drake London and already have Kyle Pitts on their roster and they'll be the No. 1 and 2 targets in the passing game, but after those two, it's wide open and we should be expecting Patterson to be the third-most targeted Falcon this season.
He's very likely to once again be one of the most heavily targeted running backs (he had the fifth-most targets last year among running backs) and that kind of workload is incredibly valuable in any PPR scoring league. Any Zero-RB drafter should be thrilled to land Patterson this late.
Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles
Miles Sanders has been held out of practice for the past two weeks with a hamstring injury and that means that Kenneth Gainwell absolutely needs to be on your radar. He had an 11.3% target share, which ranked 16th among running backs. That was as a rookie and it's something any Zero-RB drafter should be thrilled to see. The archetype of player we're looking for when implementing a Zero-RB strategy centers around finding upside or finding pass-catchers who have a steady floor. Gainwell has both.
It's not out of the question that Gainwell could become the 1A in Philadelphia this season. Fantasy managers should expect this offense to pass more this season than they did in 2021, but with the No. 1 offensive line in the league, this is still going to be a run-centric offense, so we need to expect a running back by committee for the Eagles. Still, with news of Sanders' injury, Gainwell could become the lead back sooner than later.
Don't sleep on Kenneth Gainwell ?
In 2021 as a rookie:
- 9th among qualified RBs in broken tackle rate (Sports Info Solutions)
- Targeted on 24.7% of his routes run (6th best)
- 7th among RBs in fantasy points per opportunityMore Sleepers on today's show! #FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/18O3T44yiP
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) August 24, 2022
Gainwell averaged 1.05 fantasy points per opportunity, which ranked seventh among running backs. He also racked up 20 red zone touches as a rookie, which ranked just 46th, but it was just three less opportunities than Sanders, which shows they trusted him in the red zone, even as a rookie Even if he never materializes into being the lead man, he averaged 1.73 yards per route run, which was the sixth best among running backs. This should keep him heavily involved in an offense that is likely to pass more.
Zero RB Late-Round Options: Rounds 13–16
James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars
Early in the draft season, it was unknown if James Robinson would be ready for the 2022 season. Now that we're just two weeks away, it seems like a guarantee that Robinson will be suiting up Week 1 for the Jacksonville Jaguars and that means he absolutely needs to be on your radars in these "free" rounds.
As a rookie, he racked up 1,414 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns. As a sophomore, in just 15 games, he had 989 scrimmage yards and 8 touchdowns. He's averaged 40 receptions in his first two seasons in the league. He's been one of the better running backs for fantasy the past two seasons and he's been highly effective for the Jaguars. Robinson averaged 11.3 half-PPR PPG last year, which ranked 24th among running backs. He was even better as a rookie, averaging 16.1 PPG, which was the sixth-best average. That's the kind of player he's been for Jacksonville.
“James Robinson is expected to
return to full speed in time for the team's Week 1 matchup… If Robinson is able to suit up for the Jaguars, it should be expected that he eventually move forward as the team's lead tailback.” https://t.co/yO9ZZbmgwJ— NFL Beat Writers (@32BeatWriters) August 18, 2022
With Travis Etienne healthy, it seems like he'll likely lead the backfield early, especially with Robinson still working his way back, but it's not out of the question that this becomes a running back by committee as this season moves along. Etienne may very well work as the primary pass-catching back, but Robinson could reclaim his early-down role and if that comes with the goal line work, Robinson is a tremendous value this last in drafts.
Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders
Brian Robinson seems to be the early-down running back for the Washington Commanders, which seems hard to believe after the first two years Antonio Gibson has had, but nonetheless, Robinson has worked as the primary ball carrier this preseason.
Commanders RB preseason to-date*
Brian Robinson:
14 att
4.1 YPC
+0.30 EPA/rush
57% success
3.75 yds after contact/rushAntonio Gibson:
6 att
0.8 YPC
-0.69 EPA/rush
17% success
1.0 yds after contact/rush*week 1 + week 2 first half
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 20, 2022
As a fifth-year senior at Alabama, Robinson finished with 1,343 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns and head coach Ron Rivera seems to like Robinson's hard, north and south running skills that he brings to the table. It's hard to know how this backfield is going to shape out because there's also J.D. McKissic to think about. He's going to continue operating as the primary pass-catcher, which means Robinson and Gibson may share the rushing work. We generally don't want to target a committee inside of another committee, but the price is too cheap to ignore the upside.
The coaching staff in Washington seems fed up with Gibson as he's been relegated to special teams work this preseason and if Robinson shows he's able to handle the role, the signs the coaching staff has been sending, is that he'll get it. His 230-pound frame could mean he's the primary goal line back.
Eno Benjamin, Arizona Cardinals
When Darrel Williams signed with Arizona, it seemed like he was going to walk into Chase Edmonds' role from last season, which was a fantasy-friendly role. However, reports are that Williams could be on the chopping block and Benjamin has had a great training camp.
James Conner average pass snaps 2021:
?Games with Chase Edmonds: 13.6
?Games without Chase Edmonds: 34.8With the talk of Darrell Williams being on the chopping block, Eno Benjamin could be in line for a sneaky role.
— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) August 25, 2022
As you can see from the tweet above, James Conner's pass snaps dropped significantly when Edmonds was active. If Benjamin takes over that Edmonds, he'll be in a very viable pass-catching role. However, the bigger reason he needs to be on your Zero-RB draft board is if Conner gets hurt, Benajmin easily shoots up inside the top-24.
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