Week 6 is in the books and we have further confirmation that Devonta Freeman is good, DeAndre Hopkins is really good, and Andy Dalton deserves to be taken seriously. We're getting awfully close to the midway point in the season, and it's time to really look at some recent trends and determine how legitimate they are. Will Freeman remain the #1 running back? What about Hopkins as the #1 WR?
Those questions are worth discussion, but this piece is meant to examine some players and situations where respective stocks are rising or falling in ways that demand context and further investigation. Not obvious statements such as: "Well yeah, LeVeon Bell is pretty darn good" or "boy, Joique Bell is toast right?" but instead whether Lamar Miller's resurgence is for real.
Let's get down to business (bonus points for you if you couldn't help but continue that lyric).
Week 7 Fantasy Football Risers
Chris Ivory - RB, NYJ
Chris Ivory wants to be taken seriously this year. He pretty much spat in the face of anyone who propped up the Redskins as a good run defense with 146 yards on 20 carries with a touchdown. Oh, and he tacked on three receptions for 50 yards. Pretty darn decent line he put together there. While the Jets still exploited the poor secondary of Washington, it was more the skill of the Jets' receivers rather than that of Ryan Fitzpatrick. He threw some terrible passes, but Brandon Marshall and company made some exceptional plays. Ivory displayed that he has the skills to carry his weight in the receiving game now too, adding another weapon to his arsenal out of the backfield. No longer strictly a bruiser running back, he has shown bursts of speed and agility outside of the tackle box as well as still being able to pummel safeties coming up to plug a gap. Ivory is an unquestioned RB1 in 2015 and it's not debatable.
Lamar Miller – RB, MIA
Oh, so that's what the Dolphins can do with a competent coaching staff. Ain't that a hoot. Lamar Miller churned out 113 yards on 19 carries and got a touchdown in his first game with Dan Campbell as Head Coach for the Dolphins. In his first four games Miller was averaging about 10 carries per game, so it is more than encouraging to see him double that under new management. He responded well to the extra workload, showing a burst that we hadn't seen out of him yet in 2015. It's worth reaching out to Miller owners to see if he's still available via trade.
Martavis Bryant – WR, PIT
All it took was Landry Jones to come in and heave the ball up to Martavis Bryant in the back of the endzone for Bryant's 2015 to be kickstarted. Sunday was Bryant's first action after being suspended and injured for the first five games, which saw him see eight targets in six catches for 137 yards and two touchdowns. His first touchdown was a "go up and get it" type ball that allowed Bryant to use that 6'5" frame, as well as his football IQ when he got the knee down before falling out of the back of the endzone. Most of those yards came on a slant route that saw Bryant make a few defenders miss and then show off incredible breakaway speed down the right side of the field for 88 yards. Size, hands, and speed. Bryant's got a lethal skillset that should produce plenty of points for owners, especially when Ben Roethlisberger comes back.
Matthew Stafford – QB, DET
He's alive? I mean, okay it was against the Chicago Bears, but all the same it has to be heartwarming to see that Stafford can still actually make the throws. He completed 27 of 42 attempts for 405 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. So this performance was pretty much the equivalent of the Monty Python and the Holy Grail guy who is trying to say he's not dead yet. The Vikings defense is tough sledding in Week 7, but the Chiefs secondary is his opponent in Week 8, and they've been getting destroyed all year long.
Allen Robinson - WR, JAX
Yes, Robinson suffered a knee injury at the end of the game on Sunday as he had a nasty knee-to-knee collision with a defender, but what might get lost in that news shuffle is that he still put up a stat line of six receptions, 86 yards, and a touchdown on 12 targets. Blake Bortles is throwing the ball a lot. The Jaguars defense isn't scary at all. The Jaguars offensive line can't really run block that effectively. Allen Robinson is proving that he absolutely belongs in the WR1 conversation. Even with Julius Thomas having a good game, Robinson was still Bortles' #1 read (ignore Bryan Walters' 8-87-0 line, he's more Rashad Greene than Allen Hurns).
Andrew Luck - QB, IND
This is more about how Luck showed he was still able to put up QB1 numbers after missing time with an injury. If you watched him throw against the Patriots on Sunday you are already aware how many points he actually left on the field. He was sailing a bunch of his throws, and quite frankly I'm surprised one of his receivers didn't get flipped and hurt. All the same, he ended the day with 312 yards and three touchdowns without turning the ball over (though he should have been picked off a few times). This is one of the more backhanded "risers" blurbs you'll see, but awareness is power, and everyone needs to be aware that completing 60% of his passes tells more of the story than one would like to see.
DeMarco Murray - RB, PHI
If Murray owners were worried the strong Week 5 outing was a fluke (20-83-1, 7-37), they can breathe easy. Murray followed up this strong effort with another great game against what had been a very strong run unit in the Giants defense. Murray put up 109 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries while adding three catches for 14 yards . These are the numbers that people expected out of Murray going into the year, both Eagles' coaches and fantasy owners alike, and he's finally rising to the occasion. Now isn't the best time to buy, but give it a week once the Eagles play the stout Panthers D/ST unit to throw a trade to Murray owners.
Gary Barnidge - TE, CLE
Outside of Rob Gronkowski and Greg Olsen, is there really any other tight end you'd want over Gary Barnidge? He was only able to get three of his nine targets converted to receptions, but two of them were for touchdowns. He is the unquestionable first read for Josh McCown around the end zone, and the Browns defense isn't nearly good enough to allow the Browns to be playing with a comfortable lead in most games. They will be throwing. Even against the best passing defense in the league, Barnidge put up clear cut TE1 numbers. There is no reason that this won't continue.
Week 6 Fantasy Football Fallers
Peyton Manning – QB, DEN
There is very little to see here anymore. Yes, his receivers had a few key drops that would have bolstered Manning's stat line in Week 6. But at the end of the day this was an offense with plenty of firepower against a Cleveland defense that was missing its top two secondary options in Joe Haden and Tashaun Gipson, and they failed to impress at all. Peyton Manning threw some terrible passes, with one particularly ugly throw that Barkevious Mingo was able to jump up and snatch. If Manning thought he had put enough on the throw to arc it over Mingo, he was dead wrong. Misfires like this against a subpar defense make it very difficult to trust Manning at all. If he can't do well against that dinged up Browns' defense, when can you ever trust him? Correct. You cannot.
Melvin Gordon - RB, SD
Melvin Gordon struggled again in San Diego's Week 6 matchup in Green Bay in front of his family and friends from his Wisconsin days, putting the ball on the ground twice and getting benched for Branden Oliver. 2015 just doesn't look like it's going to be Gordon's year. While there is a narrative going around about Wisconsin backs being unsuccessful in the NFL, I don't think it's entirely fair to judge Gordon based on the fact that the Chargers' offensive line is so beaten up. When lanes don't open, there's little that can be done. Philip Rivers is carrying the team right now with the passing game, and now Gordon has lost the trust of the coaches with how often he is fumbling the ball. With all of these factors coming together, Gordon is shaping up to be quite the bust relative to his ADP that saw him going around the third-fourth round.
Carlos Hyde – RB, SF
Carlos Hyde might be dealing with more of a foot injury then is being let on, but for now all we can do is look at his stat line from Week 6. It reads more like the narrative from Weeks 2-4 where he struggled to get anything going. Week 6 had him rush 21 times, so it wasn't for lack of opportunity, but he only went for 55 yards. That's a 2.6 yards per carry clip for my mathematicians out here. While Colin Kaepernick seems to be finding his passing game again, Hyde is struggling to resemble the Week 1 stud that looked like he could take 2015 by storm. Perhaps as Kaepernick continues to improve then it will force defenses to respect the pass more and leave some holes for Hyde, but right now things are not looking good. Dates with Seattle and St. Louis in the next two weeks don't figure to improve things for Hyde either.
Eddie Lacy – RB, GB
So now the Green Bay Packers are 6-0 and for all intents and purposes, they would probably be exactly where they are with or without Eddie Lacy. The Packers gave Lacy only six touches in a shootout with the San Diego Chargers, who boast quite the horrid rush defense. James Starks got the bulk of the work after Packers' Head Coach Mike McCarthy said that he wanted to give Starks some more snaps after running strong for a few weeks now, as well as his effort in practice. Lacy hasn't scored since Week 1, and has yet to have a 100 yard rushing game. Week 6 saw Lacy rush four times for three yards, and get two receptions for 17 yards. Lacy owners are panicking, and now is the time to buy. Owners might be sweating hard about Lacy's numbers to date, and now they'll have to sit through the Packers' bye week while staring at that eyesore on their roster. The woes can set in and you can capitalize if you want to invest in a running back in an amazing offense for later on in the season. On deck for the Packers after their bye: a SNF showdown at Denver, followed by a date in Carolina against that solid front. So be aware that his stock might dip even further for future speculation, or that if you buy him now you shouldn't expect immediate turnaround. Regardless, his stock is plummeting right now.
Randall Cobb - WR, GB
Randall Cobb's first three weeks were great for his owners, capped by a three touchdown performance Week 3. Since Week 4 it has been a different story. "Randall Cobb with cable" type of stuff is going on. In the past three weeks Cobb has seen 19 targets and reeled in ten of those, gaining 105 yards and with zero touchdowns. Lacy owners have been hurting for a long time, but Cobb owners are starting to join the misery party in Green Bay. Complaints from Cobb are arising that he is seeing so many double teams that it's forcing the ball to go elsewhere. Aaron Rodgers is too smart and Green Bay has enough options (even without Jordy Nelson) where they aren't going to force the ball into double coverage. Cobb has a bye week, then a date with Denver's Aqib Talib, and then a date with Carolina's young upstart shutdown corner Josh Norman. Things don't look promising for Cobb in the near future.
Brandin Cooks - WR, NO
Cooks' lone bright spot this year was a last second garbage touchdown in Week 5. Outside of that, he hasn't scored at all and he only one game of over 80 yards receiving (that same Week 5 game where the garbage stats were flowing for New Orleans). If he was consistently getting garbage time stats then nobody would really be complaining, but he's not even getting that. The Saints have actually looked better recently, and their best receiver appears to be Willie Snead. Benjamin Watson also had a great game for New Orleans as it seemed that Atlanta insisted on not covering him. There should be brighter days for Cooks ahead, but it'd be difficult to recommend moving anything of value for him given the price tag that most owners are probably still anchored to. Luckily for Cooks, there isn't any real competition behind him for snaps, he'll continue to be out there with Drew Brees to try to get things going. He is not a WR1 though, that much is clear.
Mike Wallace - WR, MIN
It really just looks like Teddy Bridgewater and Mike Wallace cannot get anything consistently going between them. Wallace had nine targets on Sunday, which Wallace owners would probably sign up for week in week out if they had the option. Unfortunately, only two of those targets actually turned into catches. That is not good. The chemistry is seriously lacking between quarterback and receiver here. With the emergence of Stefon Diggs and a clear connection there, Wallace looked like the clear-cut WR2 for Minnesota. Luckily, Charles Johnson is still not 100% and has been extremely underwhelming when he's been on the field, so it isn't as though Wallace's playing time is threatened in any way,. Still, owners are going to want to see some production before inserting him into fantasy lineups.
Joseph Randle - RB, DAL
The bye week was very bad to Joseph Randle. According to many sources close to the Dallas Cowboys, Christine Michael is poised to take over as the starting running back in Week 7 against the New York Giants. It would appear that Joseph Randle's carelessness with the ball and general play style isn't meshing with what Dallas coaches want to see. It seems that his stretching for the goal line and putting the football out there in a vulnerable spot really put him in the doghouse. Outside of this, the coaches seem encouraged by Christine Michael and want to see what he's got. Just as Michael is trending up from this news, Randle's stock takes a big hit.
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