2020 NFL Early-Draft Exploits: VOA vs. ADP for Quarterbacks

If you're a loyal RotoBaller reader, you know we strive to give you the edge no matter the fantasy sport you happen to be playing. Just a few weeks ago I took another step and introduced three metrics for fantasy football: Value Over Starter (VOS), Value Over Average (VOA), and Value Over Replacement (VOR). The idea behind the concept was simple: Take position scarcity into account and calculate how each player over/underperformed when compared to those with starter/average/replacement value at that concrete position. With that in mind, it is easy to identify who provides the most value at each skill position, how the players pertaining to it rank in similar tiers, and who should be drafted earlier based on how many more points he provides compared to his peers.

Now that the 2019 season is well behind us and we're already locked into what is about to come in just a few months time, it is time to check the drafts and ADP values before the NFL draft to see who is going under the radar and who is being massively overvalued this time of the year. We've already looked at the WR position, TE position, RB position, and today quarterbacks are up.

I already went through the data in another column as an introduction to the positional breakdown I'll be doing next. Using VOA+ and ADP I will try to identify overvalued players at each position and picks going under the radar worth taking later in drafts given their performance levels when compared to the average starter at the position. Let's get it going.

Overvalued/Undervalued Quarterbacks by VOA/ADP

With the data at hand (that is, the 2019 VOA+ and 2020 ADP values of each player as of this writing), it is time to try and find some players going off the board way earlier than they should considering the value they provide compared to other players at the position. In order to do so in an objective way, we'll use VOA+.

Those with higher values would carry the best value/price and those with the lowest the worst. Imagine two players with a VOA+ of 200 going first overall and 100th overall. You'd definitely want the second one (same production, 100 times cheaper), and in fact, his value would be much higher (200^100 against 200^1) than that of the first player.

First of all, here is how both VOA+ and ADP compare for players at the quarterback position.

The quarterback position saw 11 players perform above average, the second-fewest only behind the tight end position (10). In standard 12-team leagues, that means one fantasy owner was stuck with an underperforming starter for the season (not really but on average an in a theoretical world that would have been the case) with only Tom Brady (98.7 VOA+) being close to the average level at the position while still falling under the 100 mark.

2020 Super-Early-Round Quarterbacks

As of this writing, fantasy owners are drafting just two quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes) inside the first three rounds and only three (Deshaun Watson) inside the first four. Although the Mahomes pick might look a little bit crazy if looking at the raw numbers, the truth is that is current ADP reflects his what could have been season more than his actual one given he missed two games entirely and was pretty banged up through the year, which dropped his VOA+ a notch to 105.

I wouldn't advise taking a quarterback so early, as it is highly risky and the odds of either Jackson or Mahomes playing to the levels of their 2019 and 2018 seasons respectively are pretty slim. If you're going to pay a big price for a player at the position, though, they might be the only two assets worth such a high price.

2020 Early-Round Quarterbacks

Going down the ADP leaderboard (to the right of the plot) is where some inefficiencies start to appear, although truth be told, there aren't many at the quarterback position

Let's make a group of players with ADPs between 46 (Watson) and 72 (Dak Prescott). All of them are being virtually drafted in rounds five and six but not all of them are performing to the level their prices indicate.

Watson has lost DeAndre Hopkins and will probably suffer a hit in production, making him a risky and unworthy pick. Aaron Rodgers and Kyler Murray might improve their VOA+ in 2020, but both are coming off pretty average seasons.

Russell Wilson and most of all Dak Prescott are the clear targets of this group of QBs. They both had VOA+ marks over 120 last season and are flying way under the radar for the value they returned.

2020 Mid-Round Quarterbacks

As impossible as it seems, no underperforming quarterback (VOA+ under 100) is being drafted inside the first eight rounds nowadays, something pretty surprising:

There aren't true bargains past Wilson and Prescott, but all of Aaron Rodgers, Kyler Murray, Carson Wentz, and Josh Allen performed to similar VOA levels in 2019 while their prices vary wildly. Rodgers has a 62.4 ADP while Allen is going off the board with a 93.4 ADP, more than 30 spots later and almost three rounds after Rodgers!

Of all mentioned quarterbacks, Josh Allen and Kyler Murray should see bumps in their production due to the addition of DeAndre Hopkins and Stefon Diggs to their receiving corps. Keep in mind how much cheaper Allen is, though.

2020 Later-Round Quarterbacks

From the end of the eighth round on, most players underperformed compared to the average player at the position:

Only Matt Ryan and Jameis Winston had VOA+ marks over 100. The former doesn't look primed to see his production improve, and the later is most likely going to start the season on a bench. Keep an eye on Winston, though, as he could be the perfect substitute and QB2 of 2020 fantasy leagues given his monster upside if/when he takes on the starter role from someone else (think of 2019 Ryan Tannehill).

Between Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, and Jimmy Garoppolo (all of them underperformers in 2019), almost everybody would bet on Mayfield raising his production level given Cleveland's additions to the offense and some potential bounce-back seasons from its members. If the price gets too high, though, betting on Mayfield means betting on more than a bunch of what-ifs. Both Cousins (Stefon Diggs) and Garoppolo (Emmanuel Sanders) lost offensive weapons this offseason.

Keep an eye on Tom Brady. He was the "best underperformer" of 2019 but his price is a little too low these days. He will probably go a bit higher with time, but if you're drafting now you might want to make him your QB1 in a very late round.

Top QB Targets and Avoids for 2020 by VOA+

Finally, here are the top-three players to target and to avoid at the quarterback position given their VOA+ marks from 2019 and their current ADPs:

• Top-3 QBs to Target: Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Josh Allen
• Top-3 QBs to Avoid: Jimmy Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield

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