RADIO
Plunging into the world of football analytics is without question the best way to find fantasy sleepers for the coming season. Especially in the case of wide receivers, where how they are lining up on the field has a direct correlation with production.
Slot receivers don't quite offer the boom-upside an outside receiver will deliver (unless he's called Cooper Kupp). What they do excel at is running high percentage routes and catching passes in traffic. Many of the game's best slot receivers are often regarded as some of the best and most undervalued options in PPR formats.
In this column, I will try to find the position's best sleepers based on the team's tendency to target the slot, the player's slot volume, and the current situation the team is in.
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Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders
Yes, the Raiders added top-tier WR Davante Adams to the fold. Yes, Derek Carr re-signed with the franchise and is going nowhere anytime soon (which is good news to me, by the way, but you might be one of those that don't like the QB that much). Also yes, the Raiders have a sound TE1 in Darren Waller. Does all of that change Renfrow's upside entering 2022? I'm not really worried that'd be the case, honestly.
Renfrow is coming off his best season as a pro by a mile. The main reason? An impressively high 32% slot rate. The Raiders' players logged a combined 2,093 snaps running their routes from the slate (data from RotoWire) and Renfrow did so 676 of those times. He was the clear no. 1 slot-man in Las Vegas, and that 32% rate ranked third-highest among WRs last year. Best of all, though, is that Renfrow was well worth the usage at that position, putting up 83% of his total PPR points when running slot routes. That means that Waller's and Adams' presence in the lineup won't take chances from him when it comes to slot snaps. There should be a downtick in targets, but it shouldn't be that large considering Renfrow's legit production.
Somehow, though, Renfrow is getting drafted with an ADP of 89 in FFPC drafts throughout the month of April exclusively. Renfrow was the WR11 of the 2021 season in PPR leagues, and I see no real reason he can't have another top-15 season at the very least in 2022 with Adams and Waller taking looks from him but also giving him more room to operate as they'll also get more than a few eyes from defensive players on them.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
All of the drama involving diva wideouts during the past few weeks has turned some very interesting and capable wide receivers into legit under-the-radar assets going for cheap ADPs. The likes of A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel (already requested a trade), and DK Metcalf are entering contract years and there is a very serious threat floating in the air of their franchises when it comes to their future in the cities they're currently living in.
I'm not here to argue against any of those three players and their clear WR1 role in the TEN/SF/SEA offenses respectively, but what about their main competitors on the depth chart? You better don't forget about them. Case in point: über-effective veteran and slot-maven Tyler Lockett. Lockett, mind you, finished 2021 as the WR16 to Metcalf's WR14 position. I mean, what's the difference? Seriously. The gap amounted to 1.9 total PPR points and in fact, Lockett outperformed DK on a per-game basis with 15.1 FPPG against 14.3.
If Seattle locks Metcalf into a long-term deal, they might end up trading Lockett away (and they'd be wrong for not doing just the opposite thing). Whatever the case, Lockett comes off playing 482 snaps off the slot position for a share of 27% of all such Seahawks' slot snaps and ran 59% of his total routes from that position. The results couldn't be better, and in fact, Lockett let his coaches know that he should actually get more slot reps as 76% of his total PPR points came from routes ran from that alignment. Don't get Lockett's great slot numbers wrong, though: the WR boasted 90th+ percentile marks in all aDOT, Completed AY/Target, and Yds/Route through the 2021 season while putting up the eighth-most receiving yards, crafting a profile far from the usual slot-WR1, but still ridiculously productive.
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are, well, big-time charging with sights toward that elusive Super Bowl that their neighbors just happened to snatch last February. The free-agent signings came from everywhere and they included the likes of CB JC Jackson inking the second-biggest deal of the offseason and TE Gerald Everett to bulk up the receiving corps--among a lot of other moves. LA also traded for Khalil Mack, and of course, re-signed Mike Williams to a tasty $40-million extension. Where does that leave Keenan Allen and the Chargers offense for 2022? Pretty much where they already were, only now with a young QB having an extra season of experience under his belt.
Allen has been a top-15 WR every single season since the Chargers moved from San Diego to Los Angeles. It's been five seasons in a row with at least 136 targets, 97 receptions, 992 receiving yards, and six receiving TDs. That whole stat line (again, from combining the lowest marks Allen's put together from 2017 on) is one that has been reached in only 96 player seasons since the year 2000. Of course, five of those belong to Allen and from 2017 on, it's only been 31 such campaigns. Of course, no-freaking-body has gone five-for-five like Allen in that span, and in fact, Davante Adams ranks second with just three-of-five seasons reaching that threshold. Insane.
Allen, while employed on the outside often, was also one of only 24 WRs getting a slot rate above 25% of all of his team slot-route-ran snaps. It could (should?) have been even more, as Allen got 74% of his total PPR points from that alignment compared to running a tad lower share of routes from his total amount from it (72% of his routes started off the slot). Allen's 167.8 PPR points from the slot were only bested by five other WRs. Currently boasting an ADP of 37 in the month of April, the value Allen is projected to hand to his fantasy GMs is quite high, so you should take advantage of the glitch while it lasts.
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