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If the early returns are any true indication of how the full season will play out, then Francisco Lindor will prove to be one of the best early-round picks of 2022 fantasy baseball drafts. Some were skeptical about him rebounding in a big way in his second year in New York, and it was reflected in his Average Draft Position.
Lindor had a National Fantasy Baseball Championship ADP of 51.0 and he was the eighth shortstop off the board, but Lindor has put the 2021 season behind him with a fast start to the 2022 campaign, as the Mets have played like the best team in the National League over their first four series of the season.
Today I'll take a deeper dive into Lindor, and the Mets as a whole, based on in-person interviews that I conducted with Mets players recently at Citi field.
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The 2022 New York Mets: Lindor exceeding expectations early
We visited with Lindor for RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio as the Mets took three of four games in impressive fashion this week. Lindor, who plays fantasy football, knows how he performs will be reflected in where he will be drafted every year.
“If they draft me high, yeah, “ Lindor said when asked if he takes it well when people say they draft him in fantasy baseball. “But if they draft me late I’m doing something wrong,” he added with a laugh.
Lindor is off to a terrific start this year after his well-documented struggles in his first season with the Mets. He hit his fourth homer on Thursday and is batting .308 with 10 RBIs, 12 runs scored, and three steals. In 2021, he hit .182 in April, with one home run, three RBI, and no steals. Lindor told us he isn’t doing anything much different in terms of his hitting mechanics.
“It’s been very similar. I just wasn’t being consistent last year with my at-bats,” he said. “I feel the same, I’m doing the exact same thing. I’m just getting more results this year than I did last year.”
Francisco Lindor continues to make things happen. pic.twitter.com/h7nJcBLc3H
— John Flanigan (@jflan816) April 19, 2022
Lindor’s Launch Angle of 12.5 is in line with his career number of 12.0, and the 7.5 Barrel% is actually lower than the 8.2 of last season. His Exit Velocity of 89.4 is also right in line with his career number of 89.9. So he was telling us what the numbers indicate.
He did have a career-low .248 BABIP last season, and a career-low 18.6 Line Drive rate. The advanced numbers don’t fully tell the true story of how much Lindor fell off from his usual levels in 2021. Playing in New York for the first time under the weight of a massive contract was among the factors that contributed to what may be remembered as an outlier down season. This year, Lindor is having fun early and looking like a fantasy superstar again.
A more judicious offensive mindset
The Mets as a team are taking a more patient, calculated approach at the plate. After ranking 17th in OBP last season, they are tied for the MLB lead at a .349 clip. Lindor had a .419 OBP after 14 games and reflected on how this year’s Mets are being heavily disciplined at the plate.
“I think that comes with not trying to be a hero in every single at-bat,” he said. “We are just a bunch of selfless guys that want to win the games. If I don’t get the pitch to hit I let the guy behind me do it.”
New York's first base coach, Wayne Kirby, echoed Lindor’s sentiments when speaking to us, crediting the rest of the coaching staff, including new hitting coach Eric Chavez.
“When we started spring training we wanted to take what the opposing team would give us,” Kirby said. “That’s Eric Chavez and this group. They’re very patient and they understand what they’re doing”
We can finally uncover some reasons for Lindor’s rejuvenation when we examine his plate discipline indicators, which are exemplary of the team mantra of being astute at the plate. Lindor has career-lows in Swing% (44.7), and Z-Swing% (62.6). His 61.4 F-Strike% is his highest since his rookie season. He is being very selective and we are seeing the real Lindor again. He is loose, having fun, and making Mets fans and fantasy players revel in his early success.
“He had a pretty good spring. He’s in a good place,” said New York manager Buck Showalter. “He’s fun to watch. Quick to smile. He doesn’t take himself too seriously.”
So can we expect Lindor to possibly be a big key to a fantasy championship in 2022? Or should you trade him while he is sizzling early on? These are small sample sizes of his surface and advanced numbers so far. You likely didn’t spend a pick in the first three rounds on Lindor and spent less in a salary cap draft than you did in past seasons. He is already looking like he will deliver a very good return on where he was drafted, and we can expect season totals closer to his career norms. Don’t mess with success, and enjoy the rebound ride with Lindor in 2022.
Jeff McNeil is re-emerging
Jeff McNeil is also removing doubts that surrounded him heading into the 2022 season. McNeil was a fantasy afterthought on draft day. He is hitting .283 with a .365 OBP and has six RBI and six runs scored. This is the first season that Kirby is working with McNeil, yet he is already impressed with him as a hitter while having some fun with his nickname.
“I know his nickname is ‘Squirrel’ and I just tell him to come get some nuts every day,” Kirby said. “So far, it’s been pretty good. He’s a very polished hitter and he understands what he’s going to do in an at-bat. Sometimes he can predict what he’s going to do.”
Keith called it!!
Jeff McNeil with a two-run double down the line pic.twitter.com/9oLGZX7XMO
— SNY (@SNYtv) April 19, 2022
McNeil has told reporters that after a disappointing 2021 season, he went back and watched video of his 2018 campaign, where he shot through the minors on his way to MLB and hit .329 in his first 63 games with the Mets. He looked like the next Daniel Murphy, a super savvy hitter who added power to his game, too.
McNeil has raised his Launch Angle to 13.7, more in line with the 13.8 mark from his second season, which was his best in the Majors so far. Like Lindor, he has a career-low 48.6 Swing%. His 6.1 SwStr% is also a career low. Again, here we are seeing an example of the team’s commitment to being more discerning at the plate.
For McNeil, that should mean a return to a higher batting average, even if he does not approach 20 home runs again. If he ultimately hits .285 with 12 to 15 homers you will certainly take that for where McNeil was drafted, at an NFBC ADP of 317.6. He can plug a lineup hole as a middle infielder or fifth outfielder, supporting the stars in your lineup quite well. If you do have to address such a need, it may not take much to land McNeil in an early-season trade.
The 2022 New York Mets are letting it fly on the bases
While the Mets have been been a selective bunch when they are at the plate, once they get on base, the runners become aggressive. In 2021, New York ranked 27th in stolen bases. This season, they are tied for the league lead with 11. Starling Marte and Lindor have three each on five attempts.
Kirby pointed out that the preseason goal was to take advantage of whatever is available on the base paths. “One of the keys is we don’t take our eye off the ball and we make good decisions,” he said.
Some fantasy players tossed out the preseason narrative that Marte could see a drop-off in steals in his age 33 campaign, but Marte’s success is not just based on pure speed. Last year, when he led MLB with 47 stolen bases, his Sprint Speed of 28.4 was outside the top 100. Marte’s stolen base success is based heavily on experience and savvy, not just his pure wheels.
“He’s very patient on when he wants to go and when he doesn’t want to go,” Kirby said. “He’s got great technique, and his jumps are unbelievable. He studies pitchers, and we try to give him all the information we can to do it. He usually picks a good time in the game and a good spot.”
These are not the same Mets under Showalter and his staff, and that is something to keep in mind when considering trading away or targeting their hitters in deals. Yes, it’s early, but there is a different aura and mentality that permeates the lineup. We’ve heard a lot about the New York pitching early in the season, but you should have an optimistic fantasy view of many of the Mets hitters. The team is certainly feeling good about its chances internally, and several New York hitters can elevate your fantasy outlook in 2022.
"This year with the new additions the team plays a little bit different,” Lindor said. “I’m excited for what we have now here.”
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