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Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball, almost as much as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and then see their production improve that can really tip the scales in your favor where the standings are concerned.
The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.
Here are some undervalued candidates to pursue in trades and some overvalued ones who you should consider dealing if they presently occupy a spot on your roster.
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Undervalued Players To Trade For
Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox
One of fantasy baseball’s best five-category threats, Robert hit .338 with a .378 on-base percentage, 13 home runs, and six stolen bases in 296 plate appearances last season. In fact, in his first career 523 plate appearances, spanning the 2020 and 2021 seasons, the outfielder hit .294 with a .345 on-base percentage, 24 home runs, and 15 stolen bases.
Because of that success, it was unsurprising that Robert went extremely early in drafts. Prior to Opening Day, the White Sox stalwart had an ADP of 16.18 according to NFBC, right after Mookie Betts and right ahead of Walker Buehler and Ozzie Albies.
Fast forward through the month of April and Robert is hitting .246 with a .258 on-base percentage, three home runs, and five stolen bases. The production in terms of homers and steals is certainly nice, but if the manager in your league with Robert on their roster is worried about the low batting average (and similarly low walk rate, which is 1.6%), now’s the time to make a move. Because Robert’s average and on-base percentage aren’t going to stay like this for long. Plus, there’s a chance his power numbers are going to improve as well. His quality of contact has just been too good for the struggles to continue. The outfielder currently ranks in the 97th percentile or better in max exit velocity (114.8 MPH, 98th), xwOBA (.460, 98th), xSLG (.743, 98th), and xBA (.358, 99th).
He’s also entrenched at the top of a quality lineup. Robert has hit second behind Tim Anderson every game. Chicago has utilized the likes of Jose Abreu, Yasmani Grandal, and AJ Pollock in the third spot in the order, so Robert should continue to see plenty of RBI and run-scoring opportunities.
As long as his expected metrics and quality contact continue, Robert has a chance to finish the season as a top-15 overall fantasy player, right in line with his pre-Opening Day ADP. If you can swing a trade for Robert by dealing away a batter taken in the third, fourth, or fifth round, it could end up being a league-winning move. Someone like Starling Marte or Paul Goldschmidt.
Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles
Mancini has just one home run and a .224 average to his name in 84 plate appearances so far this season, but like Robert, he’s been one of baseball’s best in terms of quality contact. The percentile rankings aren’t quite nearly as eye-popping as Robert’s, but they’re still notable for a player hitting below .240 with a .609 OPS. Entering play Wednesday, Mancini ranked in the 75th percentile or higher in barrel rate (11.5%, 75th), xwOBA (.395, 88th), xSLG (.577, 89th), hard-hit rate (52.5%, 90th), and xBA (.325, 95th).
So, in the short term, there’s certainly pay-off potential as Mancini’s metrics figure to even out over time. But there’s long-term potential as well. As one of Baltimore’s most established veterans, there’s a chance Mancini is traded at some point this summer. Of course, that’s entirely speculative, but a deal to a different park might do him some good from a power production standpoint (not to mention hitting in an improved lineup).
Generally a positive for home run hitters, Baltimore’s Camden Yards had the second-highest park factor in the league where home runs were concerned from 2019 to 2021, according to Statcast. However, Mancini’s only home run this season came on the road against the Angels and his expected home run metric for Camden Yards is just one. That being said, using the same expected home run stat, Mancini would’ve already hit four home runs at five different parks if he had played all of his games at each, respectively. Furthermore, with the designated hitter now a staple in National League lineups, it opens up considerably more trade fits for Mancini, though again that’s purely speculative on my part.
Overvalued Players To Trade Away
Owen Miller, Cleveland Guardians
Miller has been one of baseball’s most productive players early in the season, batting .377 with a .44 on-base percentage and a pair of home runs through his first 63 plate appearances. And while a number of his metrics point to there being some sustainability here – he’s improved his walk rate while cutting down on strikeouts and his xwOBA is a promising .365 – there are some red flags in his number that may indicate some regression on the horizon. There’s the obvious, .462 BABIP for starters. That’s all sorts of unsustainable. Plus, Miller’s xwOBA is more than .100 points lower than his actual wOBA of .470.
The infielder also seems an unlikely candidate to make a significant impact in the home run or stolen base departments. He has three barrels on 41 batted balls entering play on Wednesday, good for a 7.3% barrel rate. It’s a decidedly good-but-not-great metric and not one that points to significant power being on the horizon. Furthermore, Miller never hit more than 13 home runs in a single minor league season and was graded by FanGraphs as having future and current in-game power grades of 30/40 when the publication ranked the top-49 Cleveland prospects in January of 2021.
And while he’s currently ranked in the 80th percentile league-wide in Statcast’s sprint speed metric, Miller has yet to steal a base this season and has never stolen more than five in a single minor league campaign. Keeping the infielder on your team for the next few months –or even for the rest of the season – is a perfectly justifiable move here. But if you have roster depth from a position player standpoint and are looking to move for pitching, now might be the time to work out a trade for Miller. He’s likely to stay productive, but not quite this productive.
Tucker Barnhart, Detroit Tigers
Given the scarcity of depth at the catcher position, trading well-performing backstops can be a useful way to acquire options elsewhere if you have the depth. If you drafted or added Barnhart as a bench option on your fantasy team behind a catcher like Daulton Varsho, Willson Contreras, or Yasmani Grandal, now might be the time to move the former Reds catcher.
Barnhart’s 37% strikeout rate actually has nothing to do with it and probably isn’t a reason for concern. The veteran is actually logging the lowest chase rate of his career at 18.9%. It’s more the .317 average that’s propped up by a rather unsustainable .542 BABIP. The catcher isn’t making all that much hard contact. He’s yet to register a barrel and has a hard-hit rate below 32% for the eighth year in a row. In fact, Barnhart has just two extra-base hits this season, so his production has been mostly singles.
He provides much more value in real life with his glove and pitch framing for the Tigers, but given the lack of depth at catcher in fantasy baseball, you may be able to move Barnhart now if you have other options at his position. I’d look to trade him to a catcher-needy team for a useful streaming option in the rotation or a reliever who could be in the mix for saves at some point this season like Matt Barnes, Drew Steckenrider, Emilio Pagan, or Diego Castillo.
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