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As I sit down to write this article, only one thought comes to mind: Shohei Ohtani remains an absolute marvel. Not only did he pitch seven scoreless innings with no walks, 11strikeouts, and 29 whiffs, but he also led off for a team that scored eight runs, having the highest exit velocity for the game at 109.2 MPH. I'm sorry, what? For all fantasy managers in weekly leagues, we really need to figure out a solution to let him count as both a hitter and pitcher; greatness ought to be recognized.
Fantasy baseball teams are built through the draft, but an argument can be made that leagues are won through in-season management. Being able to leverage your lineups appropriately so that you are starting the players who are a) playing in the most games and b) are in the most favorable matchups will allow accumulating as many statistics as possible, regardless of league format.
One common way to create the optimal lineup is streaming hitters off of the fantasy baseball waiver wire. It is very common to pick up pitchers who have favorable matchups, but what about doing the same for hitters? Outside of batting average, the other four traditional 5x5 hitter categories are counting statistics, meaning that you can gain a legitimate edge by targeting undervalued hitters on the waiver wire you have the best opportunity to produce. That is the focus of this column. Every week, we will be taking a look at which hitters are the most valuable streaming assets off of the waiver wire. All of these players are under 50% owned in Yahoo leagues, yet could be premium contributors for the upcoming week. Who are these intriguing fantasy baseball streamers? Let us dive right into it!
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When it comes to streaming hitters, outside of overall talent, there are three factors to pay attention to:
- How many games is that team playing this week? Obviously, playing in the most games gives you the most opportunity to rack up the counting statistics we are looking for. Six games are the standard for a week, with anything above that very enticing and anything below that worrisome.
- What parks are they playing at? There is a major difference between playing your games in Colorado and playing your games in Oakland when it comes to offensive success. Targeting players who will benefit from playing in hitter-friendly targets is a great way to gain an edge over your opponents. For this study, we will be using Baseball Savant's park factors to rank the friendliness of the stadiums each team is playing at for this upcoming week.
- Which pitchers are they facing? To calculate the strength of the opponent, we will be using Fangraphs Depth Chart's ERA projections for each starting pitcher they will face.
By taking the average park factor and projected opposing starting pitcher ERA for each of their games, and then adding a boost based on the game played, we can accurately measure the "friendliness" of each team's upcoming matchups. Speaking of which, it is time for the great reveal!
Well, with six of the top-ten teams ranking in the bottom-ten in weighted-runs-created plus (wRC+), with the Brewers not far behind, this certainly is not a week where matchups line up with the overall talent of the offense. Making matters more complicated, teams like the Astros and Dodgers feature lineups with practically all of their starters over 50% rostered in Yahoo leagues.
This may not be the perfect week if you're looking to stream a hitter for seven games. Instead, targeting a player who will be facing a lackluster collection of opposing pitchers in favorable ballparks appears to be the much better approach this week; quality over quantity. That won't be the case every week, but it's where we find ourselves ahead of Week 5.
Stats via Baseball Savant
Tommy Pham, OF, Cincinnati Reds
37% rostered
Two weeks ago, we highlighted Tommy Pham as a hitter on the verge of a breakout where his underlying numbers were not matching up his surface-level statistics. Since then, he has proceeded to post a .353/.431/.686 slash line, along with a 212 wRC+. As a result, his roster% has increased by ...... seven percentage points. I'm sorry, what?
Although Pham posted just a .229/.340/.383 slash line last year, it came with a 10% barrel rate, and a .280 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) that was low for his standards. It was easy to see future improvement in the overall numbers coming, particularly when he signed with the Reds, where he'd play his home games at the second-most friendly ballpark for right-handed hitters, per Baseball Savant. It took a while for his results statistics to catch up with his process statistics, but we have finally reached that point.
So far, all of Pham's underlying skills are still there. He has a 12.7% barrel rate, is absolutely destroying the baseball (58.4% hard-hit rate), and continues to not chase pitches outside of the zone (20.1% chase). It's a little concerning he only has one stolen base attempt to his point, as he stole 14 bases last year, but it's not a case of his athleticism being down; his speed metrics being about in line with where they were last year. At the very least, you're getting a player with above-average power and a .250 batting average, while hitting third consistently for the Reds. At a time where the offensive environment is worse than ever, that is quite valuable.
To make matters better, Cincinnati plays seven games this week, four of them coming against the Pirates. It's only a matter of time before more people put aside his slow start to the season, but while that is still sitting at the back of their minds, take advantage!
OF AJ Pollock, Chicago White Sox
37% rostered
Sticking with veteran outfielders who changed teams this offseason and now play in the midwest (what are the odds?), it's difficult to be encouraged by AJ Pollock's start to the season. After all, the 34-year-old has a 28 wRC+ through 44 plate appearances thus far. That being said, this is a player worth picking up for at least this week.
There is very little you can learn through 12 games; Pollock missed about two weeks due to a hamstring injury. Rather, we should look towards what he has done in the past. Since the start of 2020, Pollock has posted a .290/.357/.547 slash line, combining the ability to make a lot of contact with tremendous power- 11.1% barrel rate, 19% strikeout rate. Even after being traded away from the Dodgers and the durability concerns with him, there were plenty of reasons to take a stab at him later in fantasy baseball drafts.
In spite of his poor production, Pollock's quality of contact has been strong with a 12.7% barrel rate, while he's hitting the ball (45.5% hard-hit) as hard as ever. Once his 12.5% line-drive rate normalizes, he'll see massive positive regression in his BABIP, which will help the batting average.
Ideally, Pollock wouldn't be chasing (38.4%) or whiffing (29.2%) as much as he is currently. Then again, it's been 12 games. The White Sox have a seven-game home stretch this week, with three of those games coming against the back-end of the Guardians rotation. Production has never been a concern with Pollock, and the further he is removed from his hamstring injury, the better. As things stand, it could certainly happen this week.
1B Rowdy Tellez, Milwaukee Brewers
34% rostered
By next week, I would be absolutely shocked if Rowdy Tellez still is under 50% rostered in all formats. If your league's waiver wire process involves a free agent bidding process, be ready to have to outspend your competitors should you really want to acquire his services.
Well, why wouldn't you? After all, we're talking about a player who not only has a 171 wRC+ with 7 home runs through his first 83 plate appearances, but appears destined for a complete breakout season. To be fair, Tellez has shined in the past, posting an 11.6% barrel rate with just a 20% strikeout rate last season. Yet, between him not receiving consistent playing time and poor batted-ball luck, it never has fully come together for the 27-year-old. Well, until now.
With 57 batted-ball events, we're at the point where quality of contact metrics start to hold more value. Thus, the fact that Tellez has a 22.8% barrel rate cannot go unnoticed. With a career 117.4 max exit velocity, this is a player who has an extraordinary amount of raw power, but the combination of that and hitting the ball into the air more has seemingly unlocked another level of power for him. With that in mind, I'd bet on the power continuing to be of extremely high quality moving forward.
Coming into the season, Tellez was mainly seen as a platoon bat for the Brewers, but that is no longer the case. He's now started multiple times against lefties, and is entrenched in the middle of their lineup. Either way, Milwaukee only faces one righty this week, and faces plenty of pitchers with home-run problems, such as Vladimir Gutierrez, Hunter Greene, and Elieser Hernandez. Add in the fact that three of those games are in Cincinnati, and it's hard to envision him slowing down any time soon.
With how well he's playing, this is really the last chance to get Tellez on your fantasy team. At a time where power is down, he looks to be primed to bring the boom, while also providing a fine batting average as well. What to shake up your league? It's time to make your team a bit more Rowdy!
Brandon Nimmo, OF, New York Mets
32% rostered
Back to the well with a player from last week, and for good reason. The Mets may not play eight games this week, but they face the second softest schedule of opposing pitchers, including a three-game series with the Nationals. Thus, they'll score plenty of runs, and who better to target than the leadoff hitter?
This isn't just a play on runs, though; Brandon Nimmo is performing very well right now. Remember, we are at the point of the season where batted-ball numbers start to be more significant, and Nimmo has impressed thus far with a 12.5% barrel rate, a nice uptick from the 4% barrel rate he had last year, while he's made much more contact in the zone (86.2%) this year as well. Meanwhile, as his 18.8% line-drive rate improves, his BABIP will get back around to at least the .313 mark THE BAT X projects him for, which makes him an asset in batting average.
I'm a little skeptical of Nimmo's power, even with the barrel rate increase; it's still early int he season, and his 1.9% solid contact rate suggests that we may be getting slightly lucky in terms of his barrels. Still, the the leadoff hitter on the Mets, who also will give you a strong batting average and at least average power, should not be rostered in just 32% of Yahoo leagues. With another favorable week ahead, make sure to add him onto your fantasy team.
Chad Pinder, 2B/OF, Oakland Athletics
5% rostered
Speaking of eight-game weeks, that's what the A's are facing in Week 5. With the first two series of the year being initially cancelled due to the lockout, we will continue to see more eight-game weeks ahead; MLB is methodically re-scheduling those missed games.
Of course, the A's, after undergoing quite a teardown this offseason, don't exactly have a lot of impact offensive producers to choose from. Heck, even Sheldon Neuse is over the 50% rostered threshold. However, if you squint hard enough, Chad Pinder stands out as a viable streaming option this week.
Since he missed ten days of action while on the COVID-19 list, Pinder doesn't have quite as large of a sample size (61 plate appearances). That being said, he's continuing to hit the ball extremely hard (54.1%), while making more contact in the zone (84.5%) than previously. Considering he has a career 11.7% barrel rate and had a 16% barrel rate last year, the power is legitimate, and even if unfavorable ballparks, you want to take a chance on him swatting a home run or two in an eight-game week.
Eventually, Pinder will not continue to have a 33.4% contact rate on pitches outside the zone, leading to his strikeout rate dropping down to around where it was last year (26.6%). When the league-wide batting average is around .230, he's no longer hurting you in that department, especially with the power potential he brings to the table. Obviously, this isn't a sexy pick, but eight-game weeks don't come around that often, especially against a favorable group of opposing pitchers. Sometimes, you just have to close you eyes, sit back, and hope for a Pinder bomb!
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