RADIO
It was back-to-back winning nights for my double dog picks as the Heat finished off the Sixers and the Mavericks won their game six in impressive fashion beating the Suns 113-86 at home thus forcing a decisive game seven back in Phoenix on Sunday. Overall, I went 5-1 with two of my three prop picks hitting and Jimmy Butler's assist prop being the only miss of the night!
Tonight we have two more game sixes on tap with the Celtics and Grizzlies trying to stave off elimination on the road against the #3 seeds (Warriors and Bucks). We've had a few ugly games and blowouts in this round, but with these two series tightening up, I don't think we see that tonight. I'm excited about these games and I'm hoping I can keep the hot streak rolling for my betting picks as well.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Postseason Record 69-72
- Against the Spread 28-23
- Over/Under 9-11
- Player Props 32-38
NBA Betting Picks for 5/13
Boston Celtics (+1.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks (211 total)
The Celtics and their fans have to be reeling after a gut-punch of a loss in game five. Boston controlled the game for much of the contest but allowed the Bucks to come storming back in the fourth quarter. Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart bump into each other while trying to rebound a missed free throw and Bobby Portis swoops to make what was the game-winning shot. It was a tough way to lose and was the second time in this series that Boston lost in the final seconds as they also dropped game three 103-101.
After that game three loss, I thought the Bucks would take control of the series, but Boston responded with an eight-point win on the road in Milwaukee to even the series. So I'm absolutely not ruling out that Boston still wins this series and it's really hard for me to bet against them here.
But I think Milwaukee probably smells blood in the water. They're at home tonight with a chance to close the series out and survive the bloodbath that was this series (guess, what - another one is waiting for you in Miami, Giannis!). The last thing the Bucks want to do is go back to Boston for a game seven where anything can happen.
I'll stand by my stance that the Bucks are still the best overall team in the East and that I have faith that their star, Giannis Antetokounmpo, who I view as the best player in the world, will get it done and get the win. They only need to win by two points to cover, but I don't even want to risk that as this game could easily come down to a single point. Boston will battle. The Bucks will counterpunch. And when the dust settles, I think it's Milwaukee moving on to the conference finals despite a valiant effort from the Celtics.
The Picks: Bucks ML (-125)
Memphis Grizzlies (+8) @ Golden State Warriors (217.5 total)
I told you that Memphis wasn't done just yet! Now, did I expect them to blow the doors off the Warriors as they did in game five? Of course not, but I did think they'd rally and continue to play well without Morant as they have all season long.
But can they do it again and win game six on the road? That's going to be a tall order because the Warriors now know what they're up against in terms of what to expect from Memphis without Morant. Golden State is a well-coached team with some really high basketball IQ players and I don't see them taking Memphis lightly again. They're likely to have learned from their mistakes in game five and will be making adjustments here in game six. Steve Kerr isn't going to let such a talented group of players falter again and I'm sure he's holding them accountable for the disappointing game five letdown.
So in short, I expect the Warriors to win. But do I want to lay eight points here? No, I don't. Memphis is going to battle and while it's possible that GSW throttles them with a great shooting night or gets up big on them early, I think Memphis is good enough to compete and stay in this game until the end. I'm going to take the Grizzlies to cover even though I think they lose. This is a perfect spread to tease both ways and try to middle the result as I certainly wouldn't mind getting GSW -3 and the Grizzlies +13, that would provide a really nice window for where I think this game ends up.
I'm also on the Grizzlies team total here. I looked the game total over but couldn't quite find the rationale for it. But even in a loss, I think Memphis can score 105 tonight as they've eclipsed that number in four of the games in this series already and are fresh off a 132-point showing in game five.
The Pick: Grizzlies +8 (-110), Grizzlies Team Total OVER 104.5
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
Andrew Wiggins over 15.5 points (-120 DK): Wiggins missed this number for us in game five, but only because the game was a blowout and he only played 19 minutes as a result. I look for GSW to get their offense back on track and Wiggins to get back to scoring in the high teens again.
Jrue Holiday over 12.5 rebounds/assists (-120 DK): I'm ticked off that I didn't go with this prop last time out and I went with his steals prop instead (that didn't hit). He was at 12.5 for game five at plus odds and he cruised over that number with 8 boards and 8 assists. He's hit this number in three of five games in the series and has gone well over it in the last two games. He's probably going to play another 40 minutes tonight and is very active on the glass for a guard.
Check back a bit later today and I might add some more props!
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