RADIO
Happy Saturday, RotoBallers! The weekend is officially here. I sincerely apologize as I feel like my article picks have been more of a "mush" than anything, and it didn't get any better yesterday. Charlie Morton and Keegan Thompson each threw the best game of their respective seasons, and the Rays were unable to muster a single run against Baltimore. Nevertheless, all I can do is get back after it today. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, June 17, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 32-40-1, -15.55 units
- Sides: 25-27, -11.56 units
- Totals: 6-13-1, -5.69 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Braves @ Cubs
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: CHC +142
ATL: Kyle Wright | CHC: Justin Steele
I'll head back out to the Windy City for the first game of the day, as the Braves and Cubs continue pushing after the aforementioned Keegan Thompson put an end to the Braves' 14-game winning streak. I'll be backing the Braves to bounce back today behind young stud Kyle Wright (7-3, 2.57 ERA) against the Cubbies and southpaw Justin Steele (1-5, 4.33 ERA).
Kyle Wright has been stellar this season and has been even better of late, going 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts. He should be able to take care of an average Cubs offense that comes into this one with a .703 OPS and 98 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, both of which rank 17th in the league. On the other hand, Justin Steele has been really good of late as well, despite not picking up a decision. He's 0-0 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts. It's a tough ask of Steele to continue that hot streak against the Braves, who come into this one with a .824 OPS (2nd) and 127 wRC+ (3rd) against southpaws.
FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us a little bit of value on the Braves as I'm typing this, as they're currently listed at -168. Their line comes out to a 62.69% implied chance of winning, while my model gives them a 64.94% chance of winning. It's worth noting that Kyle Wright threw seven innings of one-run ball against the Cubs back on April 28, and the Braves have dominated this series, winning six of their last eight.
Pick: Braves Money Line (-168) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Nationals
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: WSH +176
PHI: Aaron Nola | WSH: Josiah Gray
I'll head out to the capital for our second play of the day as the Phillies and Nationals suit up for their fourth game against each other in the last three days. The Phils have taken the first three of this weekend set, and I'm thinking that trend will continue today. I'll be backing Aaron Nola (4-4, 3.42 ERA), against the Nationals' young right-hander Josiah Gray (6-4, 4.33 ERA).
Nola's 3.42 ERA really doesn't highlight how impressive he's been this season. He's been even better of late, going 2-0 in his last three starts with a 3.00 ERA. His 2.90 xFIP shows signs of more positive regression, and that could come today against a struggling Nats offense that comes into this one with a .697 OPS (18th) and 95 wRC+ (20th). He'll take on Josiah Gray who's been even better over his last three starts (2-0, 1.13 ERA).
The Phillies have been on a tear, and the Nats are the worst team in the National League, if not all of baseball right now. For what it's worth, the Phillies have won four straight Nola starts as a favorite, nine straight games against the Nationals, and 11 of their last 12 in DC. While the money line is too juiced for me to take, I don't mind taking them F5 -0.5, which FanDuel is giving us at -140. Since Gray has been pitching well though, I'll put just a half unit on this play.
Pick: Phillies F5 -0.5 (-140) FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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