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Right now, the quality of baseball appears to be at an all-time high. Playoff races are heating up, and this week especially, that's leading to highly-contested matchups between premier teams. More of this to come, please!
Fantasy baseball teams are built through the draft, but an argument can be made that leagues are won through in-season management. Being able to leverage your lineups appropriately so that you are starting the players who are a) playing in the most games and b) are in the most favorable matchups will allow accumulating as many statistics as possible, regardless of league format.
One common way to create the optimal lineup is streaming hitters off of the fantasy baseball waiver wire. It is very common to pick up pitchers who have favorable matchups, but what about doing the same for hitters? Outside of batting average, the other four traditional 5x5 hitter categories are counting statistics, meaning that you can gain a legitimate edge by targeting undervalued hitters on the waiver wire you have the best opportunity to produce. That is the focus of this column. Every week, we will be taking a look at which hitters are the most valuable streaming assets off of the waiver wire. All of these players are under 50% owned in Yahoo leagues, yet could be premium contributors for the upcoming week. Who are these intriguing fantasy baseball streamers? Let us dive right into it!
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What Teams Offer The Most Streaming Value?
When it comes to streaming hitters, outside of overall talent, there are three factors to pay attention to:
- How many games is that team playing this week? Playing in the most games gives you the most opportunity to rack up the counting statistics we are looking for. Six games are the standard for a week, with anything above that very enticing and anything below that worrisome.
- What parks are they playing at? There is a major difference between playing your games in Colorado and playing your games in Oakland when it comes to offensive success. Targeting players who will benefit from playing in hitter-friendly targets is a great way to gain an edge over your opponents. For this study, we will be using Baseball Savant's park factors to rank the friendliness of the stadiums each team is playing at for this upcoming week.
- Which pitchers are they facing? To calculate the strength of the opponent, we will be using Fangraphs Depth Chart's ERA projections for each starting pitcher they will face.
By taking the average park factor and projected opposing starting pitcher ERA for each of their games, and then adding a boost based on the game played, we can accurately measure the "friendliness" of each team's upcoming matchups. Speaking of which, it is time for the great reveal!
It's great to see the return of the eight-game week! Of course, this is also coming with a few teams with five-game weeks, which isn't ideal, and there isn't an abundance of teams playing more than six games this week.
As things stand, there are some teams that stand out as obvious streaming targets, making this week potentially more condensed than normal. Given the separation in terms of volume, taking advantage of that can make sense, though you can also make a similar case this could be the best week to go for quality over quantity. So, who is in a position to thrive this week? Let's take a closer look!
Stats via Baseball Savant and Fangraphs
Josh Naylor and Oscar Gonzalez, Guardians
Naylor: 39% rostered
Gonzalez: 8% rostered
It's been quite the run for the Cleveland Guardians as of late. After getting off to a slow start to the season, Cleveland has won 16 of their past 22 games, including series wins against the Dodgers and the division-rival Twins, and now enter Friday tied for first place in the AL Central. How are they doing it? Some more contributions from their outfield than normal is certainly helping,
At the trade deadline in 2020, the Guardians made a monumental decision to trade starter Mike Clevinger to the Padres for a package of young players, which at the time didn't seem like the best return for a frontline starter. Now though, the perception of that trade has changed, and Josh Naylor is a major reason why. Considering he suffered multiple fractures in his leg in June of last year, that is a shocking sentence to write, though he's come back marvelously.
With a 140 weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) this season, Naylor has been a potent offensive contributor for the Guardians. This is a player who has demonstrated the ability to hit the ball extremely hard, but there have always been issues when it comes to him hitting the ball in the air. This year, though, he's hitting more fly balls (25.9% by a wide margin), leading to a career-best 8.9% barrel rate. Then, you factor in his tremendous contact ability (8.6% swinging-strike rate), and you get an all-around offensive skill set in the middle of a rising lineup.
In Cleveland's latest case study of outfielders with potent raw power but trajectory issues, they've also benefited tremendously from the rise of Oscar Gonzalez, who has been a pillar in the middle of their lineup with a 141 wRC+ since being promoted to the MLB level. Now, that's mainly boosted by an unsustainable .390 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), yet there is still a lot to like about Gonzalez. After all, 45.6% of his batted balls have been hit 95 MPH or harder, while he also possesses a 92nd percentile sprint speed. Add that together, and you're going to get a higher BABIP, which, combined with his historically-modest strikeout rate, should lead to a .270-.280 batting average. From there, you sprinkle in power potential and run production batting fourth or fifth in this lineup, and there is so much to be intrigued with.
Cleveland plays eight games this week, all at home, ranking in the top ten in projected ballpark factor and projected opposing starting pitcher ERA. Their offense, and entire team, are on a roll right now, and that should continue onto this week. Thus, why not benefit from two of their middle-of-the-orders bats, each have who brings a lot to the table? It just makes too much sense!
Max Kepler, OF, Minnesota Twins
28% rostered
Sticking with the AL Central, the expectation at the beginning of the season was that the White Sox would run away with the division. For most of the season though, it's been the Twins who have looked like the best team in the AL Central. As they look to fend off the Guardians and White Sox, they'll rely heavily on their offense to carry the load. In the end, the rise of Max Kepler will likely be a major reason why.
On the surface, with a 115 wRC+ and .240/.340/.399 slash line, it's been a solid but standard season for Kepler. That being said, there is a reason we don't simply look at surface-level numbers; they can be conflated by poor luck in small sample sizes. Now, with a career .248 BABIP, Kepler's batted-ball luck has always been worse than other hitters, yet when you consider he's pulling the ball less than ever (38.9%) at a more batting-average friendly launch angle (12.3), you'd expect a higher BABIP than the .256 mark he has right now. Add that to his strong contact skills, and a .250-.260 batting average is well within the realm of possibilities.
Plus, this is still a player who hits for power (8.6% barrel), hits the ball very hard (42.9% hard-hit), and gets on base a lot. Oh, and he just happens to hit in the middle of one of the best lineups in all of baseball. Especially when he has an eight-game week, including against a shaky Cleveland rotation and the Orioles, this is the type of hitter who can give you elite run production, while also providing contributions in other areas. Regardless of the format you partake in, what are you waiting for?
Jack Suwinski, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
14% rostered
Man, this truly is just a central-themed piece! My apologies to those on the West or East coast; let's hope for more diversity next time!
Although their record doesn't show it, the Pirates have had spurts of competitive play, and, as a young team, are starting to see some encouraging signs from players they hope they can build around. One of those players, and perhaps the most pleasant surprise of them all? That would be outfielder Jack Suwinski.
Acquired from the Padres in the Adam Frazier trade last trade deadline, Suwinski absolutely shredded minor-league pitching (134 wRC+) last year, and after ding the same this season, he earned his promotion to the MLB level. From there, he's performed well with a 111 wRC+, and is only now starting to come to his own:
Strikeouts (31.1% K) remain a problem, but Suwinski's power and overall quality of contact are starting to show. For the year, he's running an impressive 13.3% barrel rate, while he has shown the ability to make strong swing decisions (25.3%) as well. We'll see what happens with his strikeouts, though his 11.3% swinging-strike rate isn't particularly high, so he should see some positive regression in that regard.
At the end of the day, any middle-of-the-order hitter with a seven-game week deserves a look, especially when they bring plenty of power to the table. Pittsburgh getting to face the Nationals and some of the lower-regarded pieces of the Brewers rotation (sans Corbin Burnes) is advantageous, and Suwinski is the type of player who can help you with those good ol' counting stats. While more of an option in 15-team leagues, captain Jack certainly needs to be on your radar. If not, you may end up walking down the plank!
Jose Iglesias and Yonathan Daza, OF, Colorado Rockies
Iglesias: 7% rostered
Daza: 4% rostered
We're digging deep into the barrel here! Then again, when the Rockies have a full slate of games at home, you sit back and listen.
With Kris Bryant still on the injured list, the Rockies' initial plan to compensate for the blow was to work through a platoon of Sam Hilliard and Yonathan Daza. Nevertheless, with Daza (.335 weighted on-base average/wOBA) shining, he's not only taken on everyday playing time but consistently is batting in the top-two of the order. With a career 16.5% strikeout rate and a 7.8% swinging-strike rate this season, this is a player who has a knack for making contact, while he does so not in the air (1.9% pop-up), and to the opposite field (30.8%) more than the average hitter. Add in the ballpark he plays in, and that's going to lead to a high batting average, which also leads to getting on base and scoring runs in a very run-friendly environment. I mean, what else are we looking for?
Iglesias, meanwhile, is particularly interesting should you be in the need of a shortstop streamer. Like Daza, the 32-year-old doesn't bring any power to the table, but he's striking out less than 10% of the time, while also demonstrating advantageous contact sprays (not in the air, even sprays) for a high batting average. Once you start digging through the weeds in the middle infield, it's hard to find a better option than what he'll bring at home this week.
Sometimes, the non-sexy options are the smartest; all production counts the same. Both of these hitters look destined to boost your fantasy team's batting average, while also being a part of a lineup that will naturally score runs during their home stretch. For one week, the dip in power is well worth it. While Bryant remained sidelined, let's find another way to have a rooting interest in this team!
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