RADIO
I opened this article last week complaining about how hard it has become to write, and I'm doubling down on that sentiment now. The average waiver wire is just a wasteland for starting pitching as get into the heat of the summer. There are so few options below that I feel really confident about, so I urge you to keep that in mind.
Let this be a lesson for all of us, we need to prioritize pitching in the draft and in the early weeks of the season. Every year, there are a few breakout pitchers that are pretty easy to identify after 3-4 starts, and we must be the ones to get our hands on them if we want to succeed.
I do imagine that this will get a bit easier in a few weeks, as people ditch their fantasy baseball leagues for fantasy football and we see some opportunities re-open, but for right now this is pretty murky territory to navigate. Let's get to it - here are your starting pitcher fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups recommendations for Week 11 of the fantasy season (June 20-June 26). Let's get to it.
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Check Your Waiver Wire!
Pitchers are already above our 50% threshold, but names I feel like should be nearly 100% rostered and are worth checking your waiver wire for.
Jon Gray, Texas Rangers
He's just been awesome in June and now has a 26% K% with an 8.6% BB% and a 43% GB%. Since June began, those marks are 29.7%, 8.1%, and 41.1%. I'm not calling him a sure-fire fantasy ace moving forward (the schedule has been very soft lately), but given the current state of things, he's a must-roster player.
Trevor Rogers, Miami Marlins
There's a good chance the person who drafted Rogers in your league has had enough and has released him. I think that is a perfectly fine thing to do - Rogers' profile doesn't have much in terms of redeeming qualities. However, his 14.0% SwStr% over the last five starts does show some glimmer of hope for a return to relevancy. The fact that it has come with a 19.6% K% doesn't make a ton of sense, and speaks to how he just doesn't have much command of his stuff this year - but it wouldn't be completely shocking to see him bounce back and have a decent second half here.
George Kirby, Seattle Mariners
Kirby had the worst start of his young career last week, giving up nine hits and seven earned runs in just four innings against the Orioles. He managed just two strikeouts and walked on in those innings - a very discouraging sign. However, his walk rate remains elite for the year at 3.1%, and that works pretty well even with the mediocre 21.8% K%. His 12.0% SwStr% should keep the strikeout rate in the twenties, so I have plenty of optimism for the rest of his season. I'm picking him up if given the opportunity.
Waiver Wire Pickups for Shallow Leagues
Pitcher pickup recommendations for leagues of any size
David Peterson, New York Mets (34% Rostered)
Peterson has been very good lately, with a strikeout rate above 27% over his last five outings. We talked about him last week, but I'm recommending him again. The walks are a problem (about 10%), but he manages that with a high ground-ball rate (54%) which leads to some double plays and low extra-base hit totals.
Peterson is talented, and we've known that for a while. It seems like he's taken another small step forward this year and has taken this rotation spot that was opened by Max Scherzer's IL stint and has run with it. I think he'll hold this job until (if) Jacob deGrom gets back - give him a look.
Keegan Thompson, Chicago Cubs (50% Rostered)
He is right at that 50% threshold right now as he's had some really good starts lately despite not being able to get a good long stretch of them yet in 2022. He recently threw six innings of four-hit, one-run ball while striking out seven Pirates, and that was after he threw six scoreless innings with nine strikeouts against the Braves. This most recent start was decent as well, as he threw 6.1 innings against the Reds and struck out eight, but gave up four earned runs on eight hits. Those three starts resulted in an elite 33.3% K% with a strong 4.2% BB%. The ground-balls aren't there whatsoever at just 26.7% - but a K-BB% above 25% is smash territory.
But can he keep it up? For the year, his K% is at 23% and the walk rate is up at 7.7% - so these last three starts have been a massive change in that regard. He did put up some really sick numbers as a reliever early on in the year, but since he's joined the rotation he hasn't been all that useful until recently. Unfortunately, we don't see any big differences in pitch mix when comparing the last three against his full season:
So this wasn't a conscious change and positive result following, he's still throwing a bunch of four-seamers and cutters and not much else. I'm not sure how long this will keep up for Keegan, but right now he's someone to pick up if you're in need.
Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds (14% Rostered)
The rookie left-hander has been on the IL for some time, last making a start on April 24th. He made just three starts prior to that IL stint, but he was really showing some promise in those starts, so I think we need to be adding him right now as he's set to return from the IL this week.
Lodolo put up a 14.1% SwStr% in his three outings with a strong 27.5% K%. He managed walks (7.2%) and had a respectable ground-ball rate (46.5%) as well, so the profile for success is here. In his last two starts, he put up whiff counts of 16 and 11 while striking out 15 of the 45 batters he faced (33%). Things were really looking good for the young pitcher, and all signs from his rehab outings point to him picking up where he left off. Check your wire for Lodolo and add him right away.
Kyle Gibson, Philadelphia Phillies (43% Rostered)
Gibson is not going to be a gamechanger for your season, and he will probably do a little bit more bad than good for the average fantasy team. The reason we're here is mostly because there are so few other options, but the other reason is that he has a pretty impressive 13.0% SwStr% for the year. That is better than his teammates Aaron Nola, and just slightly below Zack Wheeler's 13.6%. It has only turned into a 20.2% K%, and that mark was a pathetic 17% in June.
The reason to add him is that he still will put up a quality start pretty often. In fact, four of his last six starts have been of the quality start variety, and he's thrown five innings in all but five of his 15 starts this year. Gibson is likely to hurt your team's strikeout rate if that's how your league works, but in terms of raw strikeouts, wins, and quality starts - he can be of service.
Zach Plesac, Cleveland Guardians (42% Rostered)
Plesac got us excited in 2020, but has been just the pits since then. He went for a 4.67 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP last year, and so far he's got a 3.86 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP this season. The strikeout rate has been under 18% for each of the last two seasons, and he just seems like another pitch-to-contact guy that will have a bunch of really bad starts when he doesn't locate his pitches well.
The reason for optimism is that he does not walk hitters. His 4.8% walk rate over his last seven starts is great, and that has kept his WHIP are a reasonable level. He has gotten barreled up a ton all season long (11.9% for the year, 13% for the last seven). The swinging-strike rate (10.7%) is not indicative of improvements in the strikeouts coming, so this is just what the guy is. He will go out and put up some strong starts when he has that pinpoint command, and we have seen that lately as he's given up just 11 hits and two runs over his last 18 innings - and hey he's struck out 13 batters over his last 12 innings.
Plesac can win some games and get some quality starts while not killing your WHIP, but the ERA is probably going to be a negative for your fantasy teams moving forward. If that works for you, pick him up!
Other Pitchers We've Beaten to Death On This Series With Little Success, But Still Have Upside
- Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
- Graham Aschcraft, Cincinnati Reds
- Alex Cobb, San Francisco Giants
Waiver Wire Pickups for Deeper Leagues
Yusei Kikuchi, Toronto Blue Jays (22% Rostered)
He finally put up a really good start, going six innings and striking out eight Rays while allowing one run on four hits on June 30th. We have talked about him quite a bit on this series this year, and it hasn't worked out for anybody unless you really held on through all of those bad outings to get this recent good one.
We've long had optimism for Kikuchi given how good his "stuff" looks, but I pretty much think it's time to give up on him and just write him off as a guy that just doesn't have the command. But I have almost nobody else to write up here, so I think Kikuchi can be rostered in very deep leagues just with the hope that he lucks into a run of good starts here now that we've seen a jolt of confidence from him. The "stuff" is still there, no doubt. He has strong swinging-strike rates on his four-seamer (10.3%), his slider (18.3%), and his changeup (20.4%). Not many pitchers can say they have double-digit marks on three pitches like that. That gives him some strong upside for strikeouts, and who knows - maybe he'll find the command someday and he'll turn into a very good pitcher. I'm not holding my breath, but there you have it - Kikuchi is back on this weekly piece.
Dane Dunning, Texas Rangers (14% Rostered)
Not many available pitchers have strikeout rates above 20% and walk rates under 9%, which Dunning does. since 2021, he has a 21.% K% and an 8.4% BB%, and that comes with a 53.6% GB%. That gives him the mold of a pitcher I like, and this guy is still young at the age of 27.
His most commonly thrown pitch is the sinker, which is holding his strikeout rate back a bunch (5.5 SwStr%), but it's the reason for the good ground-ball rate (58.1% on that pitch). He gets a ton of called strikes on it, so the command is fine - but the barrel rate is higher than you'd expect from a sinker at 7.3%. The best pitch he has is the slider, which is far from an elite sliderr at a 5.3% SwStr%. He also has a decent changeup and a cutter - so there are plenty of ways for Dunning to go here.
I think the strikeouts, walks, and ground-balls give him a nice base to be a guy that isn't getting thrashed all the time in the bigs, and the deep arsenal and young-ish age gives him some upside that maybe he'll find later on.
Jose Quintana, Pittsburgh Pirates (14% Rostered)
I liked the signing of Quintana for the Pirates, who I've always thought should have a bunch of left-handed pitching given the ballpark they play in. It's worked out pretty well for the Pirates all things considered, he has a nice 3.43 ERA with a pretty mediocre 1.29 WHIP this year. His strikeout rate is down to 20.9%, which is a far cry from what we saw last year, but it's far from the worst strikeout rate around. The ground-ball rate also has come down to just 44%, but that works okay in PNC Park since it's tough to get a fly ball out of the park when hit to left field.
He has now ripped off three good starts in a row with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over that time with two quality starts. The Pirates offense is improving, which could lead to some wins for Q down the stretch, so he's someone to consider in leagues where you have quality starts as a category.
JT Brubaker, Pittsburgh Pirates (11% Rostered)
Double Bucs here. Brubaker has seen his strikeout rate diminish since last season, as it sits at 22% for the year. His walk rate is mediocre at 8.9% and his ground-ball rate is at 42.9%, so there's not a ton to love about Brubaker here.
What we like the most about Brubaker is the nasty slider. The pitch has a 21.3% SwStr% and a 33.8% CSW% with a nice 51! GB% to go with it. He can't really throw it a ton more than he does already, and the problem with him is that he just doesn't have the fastball to complement the pitch. His sinker has a 6.2% SwStr% and a bad 27.5% CSW%. The hope is that he can locate his sinker more, get some more ground-balls, and set up that slider so he gets more strikeouts. He's a young, talented arm, and the Pirates may be headed in the right direction as we mentioned with Quintana.
Other Desperation Options
- Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals
- Chad Kuhl, Colorado Rockies
- Chris Flexen, Seattle Mariners
- Brady Singer, Kansas City Royals
- Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals
- Mitch White, Los Angeles Dodgers
Alrighty, hope you enjoyed the piece and I hope some of these starting pitcher picks change your life forever and ever, for the better. So long!
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