The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 14

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

We've passed the halfway point of the season. The All-Star break is looming. And there's no better time to kick on in your leagues as you bid for glory. While your league mates will begin getting distracted by football drafts and neglecting their teams during the All-Star break, now is the time to take stock, assess where your team is, and make sure you don't weaken it by dropping someone poised for a big second-half or holding on to deadwood, primed to drag your team into obscurity.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the season progresses, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit or reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Chris Taylor – 2B/3B/SS/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers – 79% rostered

Taylor was scheduled to appear on this week's Cut List prior to his injury. At that time, I had him in the 'Hold For Now' section. Then earlier this week, it was announced that Taylor had actually fractured his foot and was placed on the IL.

There hasn't been any clarification on a timeline but we've been told he'll be out until after the All-Star break and Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said "I do think it’s going to be a week to 10 days of no baseball activity, and we’ll go from there.”

So maybe we see Taylor again in July. But I'm not so optimistic as even the smallest fracture can be troublesome, especially in a foot, so I'm thinking August is more likely. At least any time missed will coincide with the All-Star break so it minimizes the number of games Taylor will have to sit out.

Prior to his injury, Taylor was hitting .238/.319/.409 with six homers, 27 RBI, 32 runs, and six stolen bases (74 games). A down year for sure, but not terrible. And the reason I was on the fence about dropping him was due to his "ok" numbers across the board.

While Taylor won't win you any category, he doesn't hurt in any either. Below is a table that shows where he ranks across each position at which he's eligible. The batting average is among players with at least 200 plate appearances.

Position	AVG	HR	RBI	R	SB	Overall
Second Basemen	T-31st	T-35th	T-31st	T-28th	T-18th	33rd
Third Basemen	T-25th	T-36th	T-28th	T-24th	T-11th	27th
Shortstops	T-28th	T-25th	T-26th	T-27th	T-19th	32nd
Outfielders	T-65th	T-76th	T-74th	T-62nd	T-35th	72nd

* All rankings were true as of Friday, July 8th.

These rankings leave him outside of consideration for rostering at any position in shallower leagues. But in deeper leagues, where his positional versatility is more valuable, he does still carry some value. But knowing he'll miss a couple of weeks and being so "meh" across the board leaves him as a drop candidate.

Verdict - As Taylor is on the IL, if you have a free IL slot of your own, use it for him. But in shallower leagues, Taylor isn't someone I'd be actively looking to roster even before the injury so I'd be fine dropping him if you don't have the ability to stash him for whenever he returns.

Yusei Kikuchi – SP, Toronto Blue Jays – 30% rostered

Kikuchi's first season with the Blue Jays is shaping up to possibly be his worst in MLB. From 16 starts (65.0 IP), he has a 3-5 W-L record, 5.12 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and 74 Ks. His 25.1% K% is a career-high but so is his 13.9% BB% (which also ranks in the fourth percentile).

And looking at Kikuchi's numbers, there's nothing to get excited about. Kikuchi has a 6.52 xERA, 4.47 xFIP, and 4.48 SIERA. His 1.94 HR/9 is the fourth-highest of the 122 pitchers with at least 60.0 IP while his 21.9% HR/FB is the second-highest of the group.

Although Statcast profiles shouldn't be used as an all-encompassing tool, Kikuchi's is pretty telling. Lots of walks and lots of hard contact are never good things. When partnered, it's a recipe for disaster and that's close to what Kikuchi has been so far in 2022.

Of his 16 starts, Kikuchi has only completed six innings twice, five innings on six occasions, and only once in his last seven starts. Since June 1st, Kikuchi has had a 7.99 ERA while walking 17 batters in 23.2 IP. His last outing on Tuesday saw him walk five without recording a strikeout against the Athletics.

Following his last start, on Thursday, Kikuchi was placed on the IL with a neck strain and will be out until the All-Star break. Maybe it's something he could have played through but the Blue Jays are seeking to give him an extended breather. More news will come out soon, I'm sure.

Verdict - After a solid start to the year in which Kikuchi had a 3.48 ERA at the end of May, things have gotten progressively worse and there isn't much to suggest they'll turn around. I'm sure he'll have solid starts during the remainder of the season, but not enough to warrant keeping him rostered. Given how bad things have been recently, when to stream him isn't easy to predict either.

Myles Straw – OF, Cleveland Guardians – 29% rostered

Remember when Straw was the ultimate stolen base target in drafts if you missed out on Adalberto Mondesi? With an ADP of ~138 (35th outfielder), it's safe to say he was a hot commodity coming into this season. Sadly for fantasy managers, he hasn't lived up to the hype.

Straw is hitting .206/.298/.258 with no homers, 10 RBI, 45 runs, and 13 stolen bases (80 games). At least he's tallying steals and runs. Unfortunately, it's come at a detriment to everything else, leaving Straw as the 99th ranked outfielder on Yahoo!.

That's despite ranking tied-24th in runs and tied-11th in steals at the position. It just goes to show how big of a negative impact his lack of homers, RBI, and ~.200 batting average has on his overall value. At least he has an 11.4% BB% though, yes?

It's that walk rate and speed that kept Straw as the Guardians' lead-off hitter until mid-June, but he's hit ninth in the lineup 17 times in his last 18 games. That will explain why he's scored just five runs in his last 18 games, after scoring 40 in his first 62 games.

Verdict - The lack of power and batting average drag more than take away any positive Straw has for your runs and stolen base totals. The move from first to ninth in the lineup has also massively reduced his run-scoring ability so you're currently left with a newer version of Billy Hamilton. And we all know how that ended up, don't we.....

 

Hold For Now

Christopher Morel – 2B/3B/OF, Chicago Cubs – 65% rostered

After homering in his Major League debut on May 18th, Morel found himself as one of the most popular waiver wire claims. And he hasn't disappointed, with nine homers, 25 RBI, 34 runs, and seven stolen bases while hitting .272/.339/.492 (49 games).

While Morel has shown a propensity to take a walk with a 9.1% BB% (60th percentile), it's his 31.1% K% (sixth percentile) that really stands out. And that's contributed to Morel hitting eighth or ninth (especially versus right-handed pitchers) as often as he leads off.

That's not slowed Morel down as he's hit .286/.365/.571 with four homers, 10 RBI, 12 runs, and no steals in his last 15 games. He also has a 38.1% K% in that time but as long as he's hitting and walking at a decent rate, the strikeouts shouldn't be too big of an issue.

Morel's expected numbers are similar to his actual stats and he has a 15.7% Barrel% (94th percentile) so it's not like we should expect him to fall off a cliff. His Minor League numbers last year suggest that his numbers so far are to be expected.

Across Double-A (101 games) and Triple-A (nine games) last year, Morel hit .223/.303/.427 with 18 homers, 66 RBI, 65 runs, and 18 steals. That was with a 29.4% K% and a 9.9% BB%. So his Minor League numbers last year are similar to his MLB numbers this year, furthering my belief he can sustain it.

As long Morel holds the strikeouts in check and continues to have solid contact while walking a decent amount, I don't see any reason Morel should be dropped down the Cubs' batting order. My concern is that if he only hits leadoff against left-handed pitchers, his value will be suppressed.

If that does happen or we see Morel move down the lineup regardless of who the Cubs are facing, we may need to reconsider Morel's fantasy value in shallower leagues. But for now, he should still offer solid fantasy numbers at multiple positions and isn't someone I'm considering dropping.

Kyle Gibson – SP, Philadelphia Phillies – 36% rostered

The Phillies' acquisition of Gibson from the Rangers last year didn't pan out how they had hoped. And this year, it's a similar story. If we look at his numbers over the last season and a half, it doesn't take a genius to realize that he severely outperformed his metrics while with the Rangers.

Year	IP	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K%	xFIP	SIERA
2021 Rangers	113.0	6-3	2.87	1.18	20.4%	4.15	4.48
2021 Phillies	69.0	4-6	5.09	1.29	20.7%	4.12	4.27
2022 Phillies	91.1	4-3	4.53	1.23	19.6%	3.95	4.05

The numbers suggest that the Phillies are getting what they should have expected from Gibson. Prior to 2021, Gibson had a career 4.57 ERA and just one season since 2016 with a sub-4.80 ERA. But the Phillies might have thought they got the Rangers version of Gibson earlier in the season.

At the end of May, after 10 starts, Gibson had a 3-2 W-L record, 3.83 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 49 Ks (54.0 IP). With a 3.43 xFIP and 3.71 SIERA, it was fair to say that Gibson's numbers were a fair reflection of his performances. Unfortunately, things started to go south.

In his six starts since June 1st (prior to yesterday), Gibson threw three quality starts but still had a 1-1 W-L record, 6.82 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and 21 Ks (30.1 IP). He'd given up 11 earned runs in his two prior starts (6.2 IP) and gave up back-to-back-to-back-to-back homers in the first inning against the Cardinals last time out.

Then yesterday, facing the Cardinals again, Gibson had his best start since his season opener going seven innings without allowing a run. He struck out five, walked none, and allowed just two hits. Unfortunately, the Phillies' only run was scored in the ninth inning so Gibson didn't factor into the decision.

Gibson's first 10 starts of the season saw him added to more teams than he was drafted in but the recent struggles have seen that number drop. I suspect after yesterday, we see him added in more leagues this evening.

While I wouldn't be rostering him in shallower leagues, he does have some appeal in deeper leagues, especially with the starting pitcher options thinning as the season progresses. His inconsistency has been on full display over his last seven outings, which makes it difficult to trust Gibson from start to start.

But for me, he's more of a streaming option in shallower leagues and only must roster in deep leagues. There are too many clunkers mixed in to make him a must-start. A couple of bad starts on either side of the All-Star break could spell the end for Gibson in all fantasy formats.

Aaron Ashby – SP/RP, Milwaukee Brewers – 26% rostered

After debuting for the Brewers last year, predominantly as a reliever, Ashby has been a fixture in the starting rotation this year. And he has held his own. Three of Ahsby's first nine appearances came from the bullpen but he's now made seven straight starts.

He's sporting a 2-6 W-L record, 4.52 ERA, 1.43 ERA, 76 Ks, and even has a save (63.2 IP). All of Ashby's underlying numbers are impressive, with a 3.22 xERA, 3.09 xFIP, and 3.35 SIERA. His 27.1% K% is in the 76th percentile and 5.2% Barrel% in the 83rd percentile.

In fact, everything on his Statcast profile except his 10.4% BB% is impressive.

Ashby's expected stats along with his .323 BABIP suggest he's been unlucky to this point. Eight of his 16 outings have seen Ashby allow multiple walks so that will certainly help elevate a pitcher's ERA, especially when they have some bad luck on balls in play.

It may come as no surprise that Ashby has better career MLB numbers in relief than as a starter, which we can see below.

Role	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	AVG	SLG
Starter	60.2	5.04	1.50	23.5%	10.7%	.258	.413
Reliever	34.2	3.63	1.07	36.2%	8.5%	.197	.291

The difference in his numbers is even more pronounced this year with a 5.14 ERA as a starter and 2.45 ERA as a reliever. If we focus on his last seven starts since he's exclusively been used as a starter, we can see the inconsistencies fantasy managers have had to endure from one start to the next.

Three starts have seen Ashby go at least five innings and allow no more than two earned runs. Three starts have seen Ashby give up four or more earned runs and fail to complete five innings. Three of the starts have seen Ashby have an xFIP below 2.00 and three starts have an xFIP of over 4.00.

Like the aforementioned Kikuchi, Ashby has had serious trouble with home runs. Remember that stat of Kikuchi having the second-highest HR/FB of the 122 pitchers with at least 60.0 IP? Ashby has the highest (23.1% HR/FB).

I still believe in the talent, but think we may see Ashby revert to a bullpen role again last in the season. He can still provide value in that role given he's been used for multiple innings when coming in from the bullpen and has impressive numbers in relief.

Until such time, I'm holding him in all but the shallowest leagues but he's certainly not a must-start option. A couple of good outings in the next fortnight might make me look to 'sell high' before any possible change in role takes place.

 

On the Hot Seat

Aroldis Chapman – RP, New York Yankees – 90% rostered

The Cuban Missle is having a crisis. After being taken as the seventh reliever in drafts (with an ADP of ~85), Chapman is on course for his worst season in the Majors. In 20 games (16.0 IP), Chapman has an 0-2 W-L record, 4.50 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 16 Ks, and nine saves.

His underlying numbers paint a rather ugly picture too, with a 5.18 xERA, 5.41 xFIP, and 5.15 SIERA. Chapman's 21.3% K% is by far his worst in MLB and after a 15.6% BB% last year that ranked in the first percentile, he's sporting a 17.3% BB% this year.

Now, we are only talking about 16 innings and Chapman missed six weeks through injury. But if we go back to last year, we're seeing a trend of regression. None more so than in his fastball velocity, which is averaging 96.9 MPH this year (down 1.4 MPH from 2021).

It's not just the velocity that has been a big part of Chapman's struggles. It's also been his control of the four-seamer. Below is a graphic that shows the location of every fastball he's thrown this year. You can see he's not just missing a bit. Some of his fastballs are heading into a different stratosphere.

That lack of control was on full display during his first outing after his injury (July 2nd). Against the Guardians, Chapman entered the game in the seventh inning with the Yankees leading 10-2. He promptly walked all three batters he faced and was pulled from the mound. Two of the runners ended up scoring.

That outing encapsulated Chapman's year nicely. He threw 19 pitches; eight fastballs and 11 sliders. Only one fastball was a strike and again we can see how badly his fastball was missing, with multiple being in the dirt.

This wasn't the first time we saw such an outing from Chapman. Back in April, Chapman entered the ninth inning against the Blue Jays with the Yankees up 3-0. He walked all three batters he faced and needed Michael King to bail him out and record the save.

Chapman's last two outings have been more successful, with back-to-back one-inning appearances against the Pirates earlier in the week which saw him retire the three batters he faced on both occasions. But something else that has me a bit worried about Chapman is his absence yesterday.

Given Chapman hadn't pitched since Wednesday, he should have been rested enough to be in consideration, even though he pitched on consecutive days and is being gently eased back after his injury. But after taking a two-run lead in the 10th inning, the Yankees turned to Wandy Peralta for the save.

Peralta allowed three hits and three runs (two earned) to take the loss, with Chapman watching from the bullpen. That was after Clay Holmes got the last out in the eighth (after allowing an inherited runner to score and tie the game), before pitching a clean ninth inning.

And it's the performances of Holmes that has me thinking Chapman won't be exclusively used as the closer even if his last two outings are more of the norm moving forward. This year, Holmes has a 4-0 W-L record, 0.46 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 40 Ks, and 16 saves (39.1 IP).

That's after posting a 1.61 ERA (28.0 IP) with the Yankees last year following his trade from the Pirates. And it's not just Holmes who has excelled, with the Yankees bullpen putting up a 2.68 ERA this year, which is the second-best in MLB.

Aaron Boone seemed keen to stress that Chapman would be back as the Yankees closer when he was working back from injury. But he also stated earlier in the season that he won't be averse to using others to save games and Chapman could be used earlier than the ninth.

Yesterday might have been a sign of things to come or it might have been a simple case of the Yankees not wanting to push him too much and ensuring he had an extra day off following back-to-back outings earlier in the week.

And it's easy to give a free pass (pun intended) to Chapman for his first outing off the IL after missing so much time. If it wasn't something we'd seen regularly before his injury.

For now, things are a little murky for the Yankees' closer job and might take a couple of weeks to pan out. Even if the closer role is shared, there should be enough saves to make Chapman worth rostering in fantasy. But he needs to find consistency to even remain in consideration for the role.

 

Reddit Requests

Here are some names from the readers following last weekend's post on Reddit. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature.

Javier Baez – 2B/SS, Detroit Tigers – 90% rostered

Seven weeks ago, I covered Baez after he was off to a slow start, not helped by a thumb injury in April. Back then, I said this:

"I'm still not prepared to drop Baez but I don't foresee him putting up numbers similar to what we know he can do. His upside is too much that he's simply droppable and his stock is so low, trading him won't get you much in return. Baez is someone I'm riding out the struggles with for now."

If we compare his numbers before and after I said that, we might be able to see if I know what I'm talking about.

* SPOILER ALERT *

I generally don't but may have got this one right.

Period	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	R	SB	K%
Before May 22nd	123	.205	.244	.308	2	11	9	0	25.2%
Since May 22nd	166	.218	.253	.410	6	20	16	3	24.7%

It's fair to say Baez has been better, but not by much. He wasn't helped by the Tigers having the worst offense in baseball. And that hasn't changed, but they too have improved slightly since then. One thing that hasn't changed, is my advice about him.

It's clearly a down year for Baez and it's highly unlikely he'll come close to providing value on his ADP (~61). But he's the 13th-ranked second baseman and 11th-ranked shortstop (according to Yahoo!) over the last 30 days. He carries more upside than most so is still hanging on in there as being rosterable.

Franmil Reyes – OF, Cleveland Guardians – 56% rostered

Speaking of hitters having a down year, Reyes returns to The Cut List after first appearing in the Week 3 edition. And for good reason. With half the season in the books, Reyes currently ranks as the 131st outfielder on Yahoo!, behind such studs like Alfonso Rivas, Chas McCormick, and even Trent Grisham.

The reason for that is his disappointing .216/.262/.377 slash line, eight homers, 25 RBI, 18 runs, and no stolen bases (52 games). Reyes did miss nearly a month with a hamstring injury and since his return, he's looked much more like his old self.

Since Reyes' return on June 21st, he's hit .258/.275/.576 with five homers, 13 RBI, nine runs, and no stolen bases (17 games). He's still been striking out a ton (40.6% K%) and his 39.7% K% on the season is still in the first percentile, harming his value in points leagues that count strikeouts negatively.

If you held on to Reyes for this long, you're finally seeing some positive results so now is not the time to drop him. He still hits the ball hard (55.8% HardHit%) but isn't making enough contact to really utilize his power. However, he could still be a solid source of home runs during the second half of the season.

Hunter Greene – SP, Cincinnati Reds – 38% rostered

Greene's rookie season isn't going quite how we all hoped it would. After 17 starts (85.1 IP), Greene has a 3-10 W-L record, 5.70 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and 107 Ks. He's flashed his electric stuff with a 28.9% K% (82nd percentile), headlined by a fastball that's averaging 98.4 MPH this year (98th percentile).

Greene does have a 4.34 xERA, 4.04 xFIP, and 3.69 SIERA so can consider himself to be unlucky so far. But Greene's big issue has been home runs. Going back to that list of 122 pitchers with at least 60.0 IP, the 22 homers Greene has allowed is the most, with the second-highest total being 18.

Greene hasn't been helped by pitching in the second-most hitter-friendly ballpark (according to ESPN's Ballpark Factors), nor by a mediocre offense and defense, with the Reds ranking in the bottom half for both in most of the main categories.

There's also a chance that the Reds will move Greene to the bullpen at some point in the second half. After undergoing Tommy John Surgery in 2019 as a teenager, last year's 106.1 IP is a career-high and it's unlikely the non-contending Reds will want to push Greene.

Yesterday, he struck out 10 Rays batters in six innings, allowing just one earned run on three hits and four walks. It was the fifth time this season that Greene has allowed four or more walks and the 12th time he's given two or more free passes.

Greene threw 114 pitches (which goes against the whole "protecting his workload idea") against the Rays, with 38 of them registering at 100+ MPH. That's the second-most of any outing in the Statcast era. The most? Greene with 39 back in April against the Dodgers, in just his second MLB start.

Greene certainly has the stuff to excel at this level and the Reds will give him every chance to be a starting pitcher. He's just too hard to trust in fantasy with so much inconsistency from one start to the next.

He's not someone I'd roster in redraft leagues unless it's a deeper league or I'm in need of strikeouts and can afford to risk my ratios. Just don't expect many wins. In dynasty leagues, Greene is a hold for me and I hope he either gets traded or the Reds move their outfield fences back about 100 feet.

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