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It's the start of another week of baseball, the last week until the All-Star Break. We have a slate with one double-header, so there is one day game happening. There are nine games happening tonight, and plenty of places to look for bets. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Monday, July 11h, 2022.
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: ATL -127
NYM: Max Scherzer| ATL: Max Fried
This is a fun matchup happening between two Aces pitchers down in Atlanta. Max Scherzer has a 2.26 ERA, 3.03 xFIP, and a 32.7% strikeout rate in nine starts this season. Fried has a 2.52 ERA, 2.94 xFIP, and a 23.5% strikeout rate. The matchup between these pitchers is similar. Fried does not strike out batters as much but he is just as effective of a pitcher.
Offensively, these teams are very close. Atlanta is 3rd in runs scored, the Mets are 5th. The Mets are 3rd in OBP, the Braves are 14th. The Braves are 2nd in ISO while the Mets are 20th. Atlanta has more power and uses that power to score. The Mets are better at getting on base and using their efficiency to score.
The bullpens are close as well. Atlanta has the second-best bullpen xFIP at 3.60 while the Mets have the sixth-best bullpen xFIP at 3.64.
It's strange that the Mets are +116 in this game. I was expecting a -110, -105, or +100. I am going with the Mets tonight. This game feels like a coin flip and whenever you can get a coin flip at plus odds, you should do it.
Pick: Mets Moneyline (+116), FanDuel Sportsbook 0.5 units
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
O/U: 12 | Moneyline: SDP -145
SDP: Sean Manaea| COL: Jose Urena
Looking at this matchup on paper, this game shouldn't be close. Sean Manaea is a solid pitcher: 4.18 ERA, 3.90 xFIP. He isn't winning the Cy Young but he's dependable. Jose Urena is not good nor dependable. He has a 2.51 ERA but a 6.17 xFIP this season. Urena somehow spun a gem against the Dodgers going 6.2 innings and allowing just one run, but his xFIP even in that start was 5.87. I can't bet for the Rockies in this one but I have another angle.
Tonight is going to be chilly in Coors Field relative to the summer heat we see everywhere else. The high in Denver is going to be 75 degrees and a good portion of this game will be played in 60-degree weather. With it being not quite as hot as accustomed to, I think this game is lower scoring than expected.
I'd go under 12 runs at -110 or even consider under 11.5 runs at +100 odds. It feels risky with Urena being such a gas can but this won't be your typical summer Coors Field game tonight.
Pick: UNDER 12 Runs (-110), FanDuel/BetMGM/Caesar's/PointsBet Sportsbook 0.5 units OR Under 11.5 Runs (+106), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Giants
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: SF -160
ARI: Merrill Kelly| SF: Alex Cobb
This is a game in which the odds really surprised me. Looking at peripherals, Cobb is a better pitcher than his 4.74 ERA shows, as he has a 2.79 xFIP and 3.04 SIERA. That said, we are halfway through the season and Cobb's ERA has stayed high. Is he really unlucky or is there something in the xFIP or SIERA that is not being captured with Cobb? Merrill Kelly has a 3.42 ERA, 4.10 xFIP, and a 4.31 SIERA. Something that both pitchers have been able to do well is limit home runs. Cobb allows 0.79 HR/9 while Kelly allows 0.55 HR/9.
Offensively, the Giants have the edge. The Giants are 10th in runs scored, the Diamondbacks are 17th. The Giants are 10th in OBP, D-Backs are 25th. The D-Backs are 9th in ISO and the Giants are 11th in ISO.
The bullpens for both teams are not good. The Giants have a 4.27 bullpen ERA and 4.12 bullpen xFIP. The D-Backs have a 4.32 bullpen ERA and 4.50 bullpen xFIP. Both teams are in the bottom 10 in the league.
What comes down for me is who pitches better? Can Kelly outpitch Cobb? Although Kelly has the worse peripheral stats, he has done a better job of being effective this season. Cobb, for whatever reason, continues to allow runs at a higher rate than he should. Seeing Arizona F5 at +130 seems high to me and it takes away from the bullpen gambling aspect of the game where both bullpens could trade leads in this one for all we know.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline F5 (+130), PointsBet Sportsbook 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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