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The MLB trade deadline is fast approaching. Depending on your MLB team’s situation, this is one of the most exciting times of the year.
It goes under the radar that this is also a potential game-changing time for fantasy baseball. Certain players can see a significant turn in their season if they get traded to a different situation. Whether it’s a better lineup around them, a better ballpark, or just the change of scenery, fantasy owners can get lucky if their player gets traded out of a bad situation into a good one.
Here are some likely MLB trade candidates that can see a boost in fantasy value once the trade deadline is complete.
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Frankie Montas, Oakland Athletics
Maybe the first name that comes to people's heads when they think of this trade deadline, Frankie Montas has a lot to gain from a change of scenery. The Oakland A's are far from a well-oiled machine in 2022, and with trade rumors swirling since before the season started, Montas is probably eager to take the mound somewhere else.
The A's rank dead last in baseball with a team OPS of .598, scoring 273 runs in 87 games. When it comes to wins and run support, it's not an exaggeration to say he could get traded anywhere else and be benefitted from it. The argument to the contrary rests in the Oakland Coliseum, which is perhaps the best pitcher's park in the majors. While there are parks that may hurt Montas, I am not overly concerned. He is still going to strike batters out and keep his 9.31 K/9 and 2.23 BB/9 in good shape.
He is in the 90th percentile in chase rate in the game and his expected ERA is 3.34 (actual 3.26). He is a very good pitcher and should continue to be that. His splitter is among the best pitches in the game, allowing a .282 SLG against, so as long as he keeps that in his arsenal, he shouldn't be giving up tons of homers or anything like that. Montas is 3-9 through 17 games and really doesn't deserve it. He is pretty likely to be traded, and also pretty likely to see a boost in value after the trade deadline passes.
Andrew Benintendi, Kansas City Royals
Andrew Benintendi was certainly not somebody many would have expected to see in an article like this in 2022. He's been a nice surprise for the Royals this season, bouncing back after three consecutive disappointing seasons. Benintendi has a ton of value to gain if he finds himself in a better situation come August, so fantasy owners should be excited about potentially even better returns on their investment.
When it comes to the ballpark, Kansas City is pretty average for lefties. It does hurt Benintendi when it comes to one thing, however, and that's home runs. While nobody is expecting major power from the outfielder (barrel % 18th percentile), Kansas City has a 75 (100 being league average) home run rating for lefties - 28th in baseball. Benintendi should probably have more than three home runs, and a change of park to essentially anywhere would give him a few more than he would have staying in KC.
His slash line at home vs away also is a good sign for someone that may get traded. He has a .305/.376/.377 slash line at home, but a .329/.400/.424 line on the road. The other big factor that can give Benintendi a boost is being in a better lineup. Again, there aren't many places he can go that could be worse than the Royals from this perspective. The Royals have a .684 team OPS, 24th in MLB. If Benintendi can continue to hit for average and get on base, his runs and RBIs should skyrocket in a better lineup.
Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds
Castillo might have the highest ceiling out of anybody on this list if he were to change teams. He's been really good this season while pitching at one of the worst pitchers parks in the game. In fact, according to Statcast Park Factors, Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark is actually tied with Colorado's Coors Field as the best hitter's park in 2022.
They both come in at a 111 park factor (100 being league average), but Cincinnati actually outdoes everybody by a wide margin when it comes to home runs with a score of 152 (#2 being Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago with 125). That means 52% more home runs have occurred in Cincinnati compared to the average field. That's not to say Castillo has had a major home run problem, as his Barrel % allowed is in the 83rd percentile and is about league average when it comes to exit velocity allowed.
He has a 3.60 ERA and 1.17 WHIP at home, really good considering the ballpark. But when you see that he has a 2.25 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the road, it is clear that going just about anywhere else is going to serve as a huge boost to his value. It's also worth mentioning the increased chance of wins if he goes practically anywhere else as well.
Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds
Any argument that can be made for Castillo can also be made for his teammate Tyler Mahle. While he doesn't have the ceiling Castillo does, fantasy owners should still be praying for a trade out of Cincinnati. He has a 4.99 ERA and 1.55 WHIP at home vs a 3.83 ERA and 0.98 WHIP on the road. Again, going pretty much anywhere else can turn Mahle into a boom or bust, mid-tier SP into a pretty reliable fantasy asset.
He could also benefit from a better lineup behind him. Even in that ballpark, the Reds are a below-average offensive team (.687 OPS - 22nd in MLB). While some of his seven losses are definitely deserved, Mahle also deserved more than three wins, so a trade to a contender can only help out in the win department.
Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs
This is a bit of an interesting case because I'm not sure if a change in scenery is automatically a good thing from a fantasy perspective. But as one of the premier trade candidates this season, he's still examining. The Cubs lineup is better than you might think, their .720 team OPS is good for 11th in baseball.
He gets the chance to DH a lot, which keeps his legs fresher and definitely helps out his bat. He's also very comfortable overall and leaving the Cubs might be a bigger adjustment compared to others on this list. Still, it's more about where he could go that should get people excited. Inserting Contreras into lineups like the Astros, Red Sox, Yankees, or Mets could really provide a big boost when it comes to runs and RBIs, and Contreras could still DH in some situations except maybe with the Yankees.
As far as a ballpark, Wrigley is pretty average from a hitter's point of view. It has a 98 rating for righties specifically (100 being league average), and 103 rating for home runs in particular. Here's the breakdown of some other ballparks Contreras could find himself in compared to Wrigley (specifically for right-handed hitters).
It's a bit of a mixed bag, with there being just about as many better situations as there are worse ones. Contreras has easily been one of the best catchers in fantasy this season, so even a slight boost to his value from a trade can be a big deal. Either way, he should be just fine.
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