RADIO
It's Wednesday, July 27th, 2022 and we are back with another MLB betting article with my favorite picks for this 14-game slate today. There are five games happening after 6:40 pm Eastern, and all of the rest of the games are day games today. Be ready to make your bets early and enjoy the slate!
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.
Featured Promo: Want a free RotoBaller Premium Pass? Check out these sports betting promo offers from the top sportsbooks! All new sign-ups get a free bonus offer on their first deposit, and a free year of RotoBaller's Premium Pass for all sports ($450 value)! Sign Up Now!
Today's MLB Betting Picks - San Diego Padres @ Detroit Tigers
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: SD -130
SD: Yu Darvish | DET: Tarik Skubal
This afternoon we have Yu Darvish and Tarik Skubal facing off in Detroit. Darvish may have the lower ERA (3.28 vs. 3.88), but these pitchers are very close in terms of peripheral stats.
Skubal has a 3.39 SIERA, 25.5% strikeout rate, and a 19.3% K-BB%. Darvish has a 3.62 SIERA, 23.7% strikeout rate, and an 18.7% K-BB%. This should be a great matchup to keep your eye on if you have access to a TV or streaming at 1:10 pm Eastern.
Against LHP, the Padres are 12th in OBP, 21st in SLG, 24th in ISO, and 17th in wRC+. This is an average to below average offense against left-handed pitchers. Against RHP, the Tigers are abysmal. They are 29th in OBP, 30th in SLG, 30th in ISO, and 30th in wRC+, with a wRC+ of 67 (not a typo!).
The Tigers have a good starting pitcher on the mound and they do have a good bullpen pitching behind them with Michael Fulmer back and Gregory Soto having a good season.
The Tigers have the 4th-best bullpen ERA (3.09) and the Padres are right in the middle of the league with the 15th-best bullpen ERA (3.88). The other side of that coin is the Tigers bullpen xFIP is bad, 18th, at 4.05.
Even though I think this game is low scoring while the starters are in, seven runs are pretty low. I like the over in the game and I like San Diego to win; Detroit is not a good team and they are not as juiced up. Detroit's bullpen has been performing but they are due for regression.
Pick: Padres Moneyline (-130), DraftKings Sportsbook, 0.5 units; OVER 7.0 Runs (-115), DraftKings Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Sports Betting Promo Offers
All new sign-ups also get a free year of RotoBaller's all sports Premium Pass ($450 value)!
| Sportsbook | Bonus Offer | Promo |
| Caesars | Risk-Free First Bet Up To $1,500 | CLAIM OFFER |
| PointsBet | 2 Risk-Free Bets Up To $2,000 | CLAIM OFFER |
| BetMGM | Risk-Free First Bet Up To $1,000 | CLAIM OFFER |
| FanDuel | Risk-Free First Bet Up To $1,000 | CLAIM OFFER |
| DraftKings | Deposit Bonus Booster Up To $1,000 | CLAIM OFFER |
Featured Promo
Offer is only valid for new users
All new sportsbook sign-ups get a free year of RotoBaller Premium access ($450 value)!
1. Just sign up for a new account
2. Make a minimum deposit of $20 and place any bet
3. Be sure to claim your bonus offer from the sportsbook
4. Email us at info@rotoballer.com with your new account details
5. Boom - that's it! We'll email you with your year-long RotoBaller Premium Pass
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: CIN -145
MIA: Braxton Garrett| CIN: Luis Castillo
Because my first set of picks was a day game, I figured I'd do the next pick with a night game. In Cincinnati, we have Luis Castillo taking the mound for potentially the last time as a Cincinnati Red, as the trade deadline is next week.
Castillo is heavily rumored to be traded as he is having a solid season and the Reds are going nowhere. Anyhow, this pitching matchup may actually favor the Miami Marlins here.
Braxton Garrett has a 3.42 ERA, a 3.50 SIERA, a 24% strikeout rate, and an 18.4% K-BB%. Luis Castillo has the lower 2.77 ERA, but a 3.62 SIERA, a 25.5% strikeout rate, and a 17.1% K-BB%. While both of these pitchers are solid, Garrett has the edge on Castillo in SIERA and K-BB% as he walks less than Castillo does.
Against RHP for Miami compared to against LHP for Cincinnati is as follows: OBP (17th - Miami vs. 14th - Cincinnati), SLG (16th vs. 20th for Cincinnati), ISO (19th vs. 20th), and wRC+ (12th vs. 21st). Both teams may not do much scoring while these starters are in but overall, Miami has a better offense than Cincinnati does, although it is close.
The bullpens are not even close. Cincinnati has the worst bullpen ERA in all of baseball with a 5.20 ERA, the worst xFIP at 4.57, and the 4th worst SIERA at 4.03. Miami has the 17th best bullpen ERA at 4.01, the tied for 11th best xFIP at 3.78, and the 12th-best SIERA at 3.55. This starting pitcher matchup may be a coin flip but the edge pitching-wise will be towards Miami later in the game.
With a slight edge in starting pitching, a slight edge with batting and a larger edge will the bullpens, I like Miami to win this game tonight despite them being the underdog.
Because this game is being played in Cincinnati, balls just leave the park there that doesn't leave most other ballparks and because the Reds' bullpen is so bad, I think this game ends up going over 8 runs as well.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline (+130), DraftKings Sportsbook, 0.5 units; OVER 8 Runs (-108), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!
More Fantasy Baseball Analysis
