RADIO
After an absolutely exhilarating trade deadline, the entire landscape of Major League Baseball has changed, more so than previous trade deadlines; to be honest, even now, I still am struggling to adjust to all of this recent player movement. Now, it's time for a very exciting playoff push.
Fantasy baseball teams are built through the draft, but an argument can be made that leagues are won through in-season management. Being able to leverage your lineups appropriately so that you are starting the players who are a) playing in the most games and b) are in the most favorable matchups will allow accumulating as many statistics as possible, regardless of league format.
One common way to create the optimal lineup is streaming hitters off of the fantasy baseball waiver wire. It is very common to pick up pitchers who have favorable matchups, but what about doing the same for hitters? Outside of batting average, the other four traditional 5x5 hitter categories are counting statistics, meaning that you can gain a legitimate edge by targeting undervalued hitters on the waiver wire you have the best opportunity to produce. That is the focus of this column. Every week, we will be taking a look at which hitters are the most valuable streaming assets off of the waiver wire. All of these players are under 50% owned in Yahoo leagues, yet could be premium contributors for the upcoming week. Who are these intriguing fantasy baseball streamers? Let us dive right into it!
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What Teams Offer The Most Streaming Value?
When it comes to streaming hitters, outside of overall talent, there are three factors to pay attention to:
- How many games is that team playing this week? Playing in the most games gives you the most opportunity to rack up the counting statistics we are looking for. Six games are the standard for a week, with anything above that very enticing and anything below that worrisome.
- What parks are they playing at? There is a major difference between playing your games in Colorado and playing your games in Oakland when it comes to offensive success. Targeting players who will benefit from playing in hitter-friendly targets is a great way to gain an edge over your opponents. For this study, we will be using Baseball Savant's park factors to rank the friendliness of the stadiums each team is playing at for this upcoming week.
- Which pitchers are they facing? To calculate the strength of the opponent, we will be using Fangraphs Depth Chart's FIP projections for each starting pitcher they will face.
By taking the average park factor and projected opposing starting pitcher ERA for each of their games, and then adding a boost based on the game played, we can accurately measure the "friendliness" of each team's upcoming matchups. Speaking of which, it is time for the great reveal!
Guess what, folks? We have the return of the eight-game week! The Padres, Mets, and Rockies all will play an extra game this week, leading to more action to look to take advantage of. That being said, that is accompanied by fewer seven-game weeks, making the number of games less than you may first think.
Another complication? The poor run-scoring environments hitters will deal with this week. There are no games in Colorado, Cincinnati, or Boston this week, and only five teams have a projected park factor above league average.
This makes this week perhaps the most difficult week to target hitters off the waiver wire, but consider this to find an edge when no one else sees it. So who is in a position to thrive this week? Let's take a closer look!
Stats via Baseball Savant and Fangraphs
Christian Walker, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
46% rostered
Looking at surface-level performance statistics can be very beneficial in recognizing the overall value of a player. Sometimes though, a greater examination is needed. Take Christian Walker as a prime example.
On the surface, Walker's 106 weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) and .201/.303/.449 slash line isn't particularly enticing. Nevertheless, we may be talking about the player that has suffered from the worst batted-ball luck in baseball. Heading into this season, Walker had a .306 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). This year? .185, dead-last among all hitters. As someone who hits the ball in the air (34.5% fly-ball rate) as much as he has, you wouldn't expect Walker to sport a strong BABIP, but no one can sustain a .185 BABIP. Line drives have generally been proven to be unstable year for year, and at some point, he's going to see an uptick in that department (career-low 17.6%). Should that happen, the batting average and on-base percentage will sort itself out.
This is a major deal, after all. Walker has plenty of power. This season, the 31-year-old ranks in the 91st percentile in barrel rate (13.7%), combining an optimal launch angle with hard contact (68th percentile hard-hit rate) as well. To boot, he's made major approach changes this season, swinging much less (43%) overall. That generally leads to swinging at more advantageous pitches, which, for Walker, has led to more walks (12.1%), fewer strikeouts (19.7%), and improvement in the power department.
Not only do the Diamondbacks play seven games this week, but they come against the Pirates and Rockies, with the latter three games coming in Coors Field. The breakout for Walker is eventually coming, so what better time for it to come to fruition? Believe it or not, for this season alone, he's been one of the best first basemen in all of baseball, and it's time for us to fully appreciate what he's brought to the table. Now, simply for his sake, can we get him just the smallest sliver of batted ball luck? Pretty please?
Nolan Gorman, 2B, St.Louis Cardinals
40% rostered
Remember that exciting trade deadline we alluded to in the beginning? Well, it's not every day a player like Juan Soto becomes available via trade; usually, teams do whatever they can to keep a 23-year-old who may be the best hitter in baseball. However, with Soto turning down a 15-year extension from the Nationals, the team, who is in the midst of a rebuild and will be undergoing change in ownership soon, decided to capitalize on his peak value.
Why do I bring this up? Well, before Soto was acquired by the Padres, the Cardinals reportedly also made a run at Soto. Ultimately though, the team decided to hold onto its main young players, including Nolan Gorman. St.Louis' first-round pick in 2018 with absurd raw power, dominated (168 wRC+) in Triple-A before being called up to the majors, where has continued to perform (120 wRC+) at a very high level. Now, that's in spite of the strikeout issues (31.5% K), which makes it much more fascinating. So, how does he do it? Hitting the ball very, very hard.
Baseball Savant has a statistic known as "Sweet Spot Rate", which quantifies the amount of a player's batted balls are between a launch angle of eight degrees and 32 degrees – the optimal trajectory for offensive success. Well, no player with 100 batted balls has a higher sweet-spot rare (47.7%) than him. To boot, he has hit very few balls on the ground (25.8%), and his ability to display tremendous launch angle leads to a high batting average on balls in play, as well as the ability to hit for a lot of power. Hence, why he's been able to hit for enough average (.239) and get on base enough (.315 on-base percentage) to support the high volume of power (15.6% barrel, .218 isolated power/ISO) he possesses. As such, we're looking at a very intriguing offensive talent.
The Cardinals face the easiest slate of opposing pitchers (Rockies, Diamondbacks) this week, including no pitcher with a strikeout rate above 23.3% and a series in Coors field. Hitting in the middle of a talented lineup in very friendly run-scoring environments, this is shaping up to be a tremendous week for Gorman, and hopefully, a sign of more to come in the future for him. After all, what we'd be doing if we weren't to believe in some Cardinals devil magic?
Hunter Dozier, 1B/3B/OF, Kansas City Royals
Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Kansas City Royals
Dozier: 18% rostered
Pasquantino: 15% rostered
Let's stick in Missouri, shall we? It's been a difficult season for the Royals, who came into the season with hopes of being competitive but have struggled once again with a 42-64 record. Still, that doesn't mean they've been completely washed of offensive talent.
Once upon a time, Hunter Dozier was the 8th overall pick by Kansas City in 2013 and was expected to be an offensive superstar for them for the foreseeable future. After some early struggles, he broke out as a 27-year-old in 2019, posting a strong 123 wRC+ and .279/.348/.522 slash line. Unfortunately, the bottom fell off again (82 wRC+, .216/.285/.394), leading to him being a below-replacement level player (-0.9 fWAR) and in jeopardy of not being an everyday player for the Royals this season. Fortunately, he was given the opportunity to bounce back, and there have been signs of optimism.
For starters, between a more aggressive approach and more contact in the zone (87.2%), Dozier has thus far been able to cut down on his strikeout rate (22.6% K), and has done so while barreling the ball up (8.5%) at an above-average clip as well. As a result, he has been able to combine the ability to have an adequate batting average with quality power, while also serving as a slightly above-average. Given the positional flexibility he also provides, there's a lot of value to be had here.
The real star of the show, however? That'd be Vinnie Pasquantino. Unlike Dozier, there weren't very high expectations for Pasquantino, an 11th-round pick out of Old Dominion, when he was first drafted. Nevertheless, by virtue of absolutely demolishing minor-league pitching (150 wRC+), those expectations started to rise significantly, to the point where Royals fans and baseball fans alike were waiting for the day the first baseman would be able to make his MLB debut. That finally came on June 28th, but since then, the overall numbers (86 wRC+, .218/.314/.338) haven't been what we'd hoped for. Luckily, there is no reason to worry.
In fact, every underlying metric so far points to Pasquantino being a special offensive presence. Quality of contact? How about a 10.2% barrel rate, or the fact that 50% of his batted balls have been hit 95 MPH or harder? Plate skills? How about a 6.6% swinging-strike rate and 85.7% contact rate, which both rank in the top-30 among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances. Players who can combine contact quantity with contact quality are far and few between, yet Pasquantino appears to be an exception to this rule; when you factor in his minor-league track record – he hit for tremendous power while walking more than he struck out – this is no surprise.
Eventually, the "boom" is coming for Pasquantino. The Royals are still maintaining faith in him by continuing to bat him in the cleanup spot, and Steamer goes as far as to project him for a 130 wRC+ and .264/.346/.474 slash line the rest of the way. Simply put, this is someone who has the potential to be a special offensive talent, and that ought to show soon. In a seven-game week, all at home, let's hope for better days ahead for Kansas City moving forward.
Jake McCarthy, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
2% rostered
Let's dive a bit deeper down the well here.
For the most part, the Diamondbacks had a quiet trade deadline, but they did make one notable move, trading outfielder David Peralta to the Rays. At first glance, this would appear to be an insignificant move. Tampa lands someone who can thrive against right-handed pitching for them, while Arizona gets to not only add a catching prospect but open up an opportunity for an intriguing young player. Yes, I'm referring to Jake McCarthy.
A second-round out of the University of Virginia in 2018, McCarthy was expected to be a fast-mover to the majors, and, at the age of 23 years old, he made good on that promise. Still, it's been an adjustment curve for his strong minor-league track record to match up at the MLB level, though things are heading in the right direction.
For starters, by swinging more in the zone and less outside the zone compared to average, McCarthy has demonstrated extremely strong swing decisions that stabilize his floor as a player tremendously. Meanwhile, he overall hits the ball in strong trajectories (above-average sweet-spot rate), and with 99th percentile sprint speed, that's going to allow him to post a very high batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Even without superb raw power, he's shown the ability to not be a net-zero in the barrel (5.3%) department, allowing him to take advantage in the right situation.
Ultimately though, McCarthy for fantasy purposes serves as a hitter with a fine batting average, and most importantly, the ability to steal bases. After all, he's already stolen five bases with just 144 plate appearances, with ZiPs projecting another seven for the rest of the season on just 126 plate appearances. Given his raw speed and aggressiveness on the bases, this is no surprise and makes him someone who can be extremely productive for fantasy baseball, while also utilizing his athletic abilities to serve as a valuable real-life player moving forward as well.
What better way for him to put that speed to the test than in a seven-game week, including three in Colorado and all seven against right-handed pitching? By the end of the week, this will very likely be a player that starts to garner much more attention. Now, it's time to beat the wave.
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