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Welcome back to fantasy baseball and RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance.
I have written about several strikeout and strike-generating metrics this season. Strikeouts obviously play an important part in both roto and points fantasy leagues, so I have taken a look at them from various angles. One broader and newer metric I have yet to look at is called + swinging strike rate (CSW%). CSW% is as it sounds; it is the percentage of pitches that are called strikes and swinging strikes.
As the fantasy playoffs quickly approach every start, sit, and stream decision makes that much more of an impact. There are a variety of factors that affect these decisions and strikeout potential is a main one. With that, let's identify some CSW% Studs and Duds! For this week, I will avoid obvious fantasy Studs.
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CSW% Studs for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, August 21, 2022.
Kyle Wright, Atlanta Braves
15-5, 3.14 ERA, 23.7% Strikeout Rate, 30.3% CSW%
Kyle Wright has been on the fantasy radar for some time but had never lived up to expectations in his big-league stints. Things have changed this season, as he has compiled a strong 3.14 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 23 starts. Further, his 30.3% CSW% is in the top-10 among qualified starters. Wright is currently rostered in 91 percent of leagues, but should he be trusted down the stretch given his short track record of success?
Wright's underlying metrics present somewhat of a mixed bag. He implements a five-pitch mix, and while his pitches aren't overpowering he does get an above-average spin on them. This could help explain his high CSW%, which is specifically bolstered by his strong 18.3% called-strike rate. Wright's CSW% is high, but his mediocre 12.1% swinging-strike rate has only translated to a 23.7% strikeout rate.
Looking deeper, Wright has kept the ball on the ground with a 5.3-degree launch angle, but he has allowed hard contact. Consequently, his 3.50 SIERA and 4.07 xERA are both higher than his current ERA.
Wright has finally delivered for fantasy managers this season. He has a strong offense behind him, which has helped him pick up wins and his peripherals have been strong overall. The underlying signs aren't bad by any means, but the high called-strike rate and hard contact allowed indicate that it may be difficult for him to maintain this level of success, which several of his ERA estimators support.
At this point, fantasy managers probably trust Wright enough to start him without thinking. I think he will continue to be a useful fantasy pitcher, but I would be wary of him in tougher matchups.
Corey Kluber, Tampa Bay Rays
7-7, 4.33 ERA, 21.7% Strikeout Rate, 30.0% CSW%
At age 36, Corey Kluber is not the elite fantasy option he once was. His 4.33 ERA over 23 starts has left something to be desired, and he is currently rostered in just 53 percent of leagues. That being said, his 30.0% CSW% is among the highest in baseball. Are there further signs that the veteran could be a useful fantasy pitcher for the rest of the season?
Kluber's strikeout profile is actually not all that different from Wright's. Kluber won't overpower hitters and relies on control with a cutter, sinker, curveball, and changeup. As such, he has a middling 21.7% strikeout rate and an 11.8% swinging-strike rate, but his called-strike rate sits at 18.3%.
Kluber's batted-ball profile is different than Wright's for the better. He has allowed a lot of fly-ball contact with an 18.5-degree launch angle, but his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 79th and 69th percentiles of baseball, respectively. His 3.69 SIERA and 3.90 xERA indicate that he has gotten slightly unlucky so far.
I certainly don't think that Kluber is a huge fantasy asset, but I also don't think his underlying metrics are all that different from Wright's. He does not have the same offensive support as Wright, but his underlying metrics suggest that he could serve as a poor man's Wright for the rest of the season. I would choose my matchups, but I think Kluber could be helping more than half of fantasy teams.
CSW% Duds for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, August 21, 2022.
Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
10-5, 3.52 ERA, 21.9% Strikeout Rate, 25.2% CSW%
I wrote about Logan Gilbert in Week 11 as an HR/FB% Stud. At that time, I called him a sell-high candidate, as his underlying metrics did not support his low HR/FB%. Gilbert's peripheral numbers have not been as sharp as they were since then, but he still has a strong 3.52 ERA over 25 starts. Do I still think there is the possibility for further negative regression given his CSW% that is among the lowest of qualified starting pitchers?
Indeed I do, and my reasoning has to do with a tie between Gilbert's low CSW% and his batted-ball profile. He has relied mainly on a mediocre four-seam fastball this season and hasn't had a ton of swing-and-miss success with his secondary pitches, leading to a 10.6% swinging-strike rate overall.
He has also operated in the zone more than most starters at 45.2% and has allowed a lot of contact, leading to a relatively low called-strike rate as well. A low swinging-strike rate plus a low called-strike rate equals a low CSW%.
I then took another look at Gilbert's batted-ball profile given how much contact he allows and what I saw was not encouraging. He has allowed some of the hardest contact of any pitcher this season to go with a 15.4-degree launch angle. In fact, I would have difficulty guessing his current peripherals based on his overall Statcast profile, which leaves much to be desired.
The time to trade may have already passed in fantasy leagues, but Gilbert still profiles to me as a sell-high candidate. He hasn't generated many strikes and pitches in the zone frequently. This wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, but he allows a lot of loud contact in the air, and I would not expect to see such good peripheral results given that underlying profile.
Jameson Taillon, New York Yankees
11-4, 4.00 ERA, 20.7% Strikeout Rate, 25.4% CSW%
Jameson Taillon hasn't been quite the fantasy asset managers were hoping for in his first couple of seasons with the Yankees, but he has certainly been fantasy relevant. He has compiled a 4.00 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through his first 24 starts this season, although his 25.4% CSW% is 10th-lowest among qualified starters. He had a great start to the season but has cooled off since, so what should fantasy managers expect for the rest of the season?
Like Gilbert, Taillon won't overpower hitters, but he is craftier than Gilbert. Taillon mixes in six pitches and throws all of them almost at least 10% of the time. His swinging-strike rate is lower than Gilbert's, but he is able to keep hitters guessing as indicated by his 15.8% called-strike rate.
Looking further, Taillon doesn't operate in the zone that much at 39.7% but induces a ton of contact at 80.5%. This can once again be attributed to keeping hitters off-balance, as his chase rate is in the 67th percentile of baseball. Hitters are less likely to get strong outcomes when they hit pitches out of the zone and Taillon's batted-ball profile is much better than Gilbert's. Taillon has allowed just better than league-average hard contact with a 14.3-degree launch angle.
Taillon has not been as good as he had shown in his early days with the Pirates, but he still offers fantasy value. He won't provide much in terms of strikeouts, but he has a good command of his pitches, which leads to a strong WHIP and the ability to pitch relatively deep into games. He also has a very strong offense behind him, increasing the likelihood of wins. All in all, I think Taillon can be a useful middle-to-back-of-rotation starter for fantasy managers for the rest of the season.
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