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Happy Birthday to me! Yep, it's my 40th birthday today so maybe I'll have some good luck and take down a GPP in DFS or hit all my bets? Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything!
This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Wednesday, August 31st, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
It’s a weird slate for K props, not too many stand out. I don’t trust Javier coming off a relief appearance and there are too many spots where my projection is far too close to the number today. So we are just rolling with the BIG DOGS.
Gerrit Cole o8.5K vs. LAA (+100 DK)
It’s the Angels, right? Seriously, though, even with Trout back in the lineup, the Halos continue to strike out at the highest rate in baseball against RHP. Cole is coming off 11 against Oakland and I love these odds.
Jacob deGrom o8.5K vs. LAD (-105 FD)
His prop isn’t up on DK yet, but I found it on FanDuel and I was pumped it was finally under nine. Other than his first tune-up against Washington, deGrom has nine strikeouts or more in each start since and I don’t care if it’s the Dodgers, deGrom is good enough to get there.
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MLB Betting Picks: Hitter Props
Jose Ramirez o1.5 TB (+100 DK)
Josh Naylor o1.5 TB (+105 DK)
I love going after Lyles with lefties and this park in Cleveland has been known to favor lefty power now for a while. Naylor had a bomb last night and we rarely get plus odds on J-Ram props, so I am smashing the button here.
Nolan Arenado o1.5 TB (-125 DK)
Not many other Cardinal props are up yet but this is definitely a spot we want to target against Mike Minor in Cincy.
Ty France o1.5 TB (-110 DK)
I’m all about hot streaks and France has homered in back-to-back games now. Facing lefty Tyler Alexander and his subpar stuff, it’s hard not to like some Seattle bats tonight.
MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
STL/CIN over 9.5 (-110 DK)
The Cards let down last night, but the Reds bats perked up. Perhaps we get both offenses going tonight and I like those chances with two lefties on the bump who are past their prime in Mike Minor and Jose Quintana.
PHI/ARI over 9 runs (-110 DK)
The Snakes are absolutely on fire and while I don’t want to bet them to win here, I do think they’ll continue to score runs. Both teams are rolling out their fifth starters (both lefties) and I think we will continue to see their lineups beat up on these bullpens too.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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