TARGET: ~220
CURRENT ADP: 297
ANALYSIS: When Suarez first started his professional baseball career, he would not have had “power” bat attached to him. Now it’d still be a stretch to call him a slugger, but out of the shortstop slot he did hit 13 bombs in 97 games (398 plate appearances). Now Todd Frazier is gone and Suarez will slide to third base while Zack Cozart takes shortstop back.
Suarez was hitting balls with authority in 2015, registering a meager 10.9% soft contact rate while also improving on spraying the ball to all fields. The HR/FB rate probably won’t hold at 12.1% (in 244 plate apperances with the Tigers in 2014 he had a 5.3% figure), but compare his “burst” with Brandon Crawford (whose HR/FB went from 6.5% à 16.2%) who is going over 100 picks earlier, and I’d much rather have Suarez. Suarez has shown a growing power stroke over the past few years, registering healthy ISO numbers in recent years down on the farm. Perhaps that 12.1% figure doesn't significantly drop.
Another stat to be aware of with Suarez is his plate discipline, as he is up there swinging. If you are in points leagues that penalize strikeouts, Suarez did have a 23.6% K rate which looks as though it won’t improve much in 2016. Attached to this is that he walked in only 4.3% of PAs, so again points leaguers or OBP folk, do note that.
Some sprinkles here: Suarez will be SS/3B eligible for you who love a flexible bat, and also Great American Ball Park is hitter friendly, ranking as the sixth highest park for scoring runs according to ESPN’s Park Factors. At his ADP, he’s a steal.
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