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Okay, so you’ve heard some chatter about this Korean power hitter who the Twins signed this offseason, but you still aren’t sure what he brings to the table. Now it’s hard enough to project how minor leaguers will adjust to major league pitching, but to then add this international wrinkle to it means there’s no simple solution.
Why should you take the risk? What’s in it for you? How high can he fly and how low can he go?
Editor's note: Be sure to check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard, which is already loaded up with lots of great articles. Aside from staff rankings and ADP analysis across all positions, we also dig into MLB prospect rankings, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well.
KBO Performance
Let’s start with the facts. Byung-Ho Park will turn 30 in July and is a pretty big dude (stands at 6’1”, 236 lbs) who swings a mighty right handed bat. He has absolutely obliterated the KBO, hitting over 30 homers each year since he got regular playing time with the Nexen Heroes. These past two years he’s hit 52 and 53 bombs while hitting over .300.
Now if you thought Coors Field or the PCL was hitter-friendly, you haven’t seen the KBO. Remember names such as Eric Thames and Wladimir Balentien? Sort of? Well they were superstars in the KBO after they couldn’t cut it in the MLB. There’s a reason a 50 home run bat isn’t being talked up like crazy, but don’t automatically take that to mean Park is some hack. See: Jung-ho Kang. He is who the industry is looking to for comparisons as he is obviously the latest guy to come over from the KBO and his stats looked very similar.
Kang’s KBO triple slash in 2014 (501 PAs): .356/.459/.739 with 40 homers.
Park’s KBO triple slash in 2015 (622 PAs): .343/.436/.714 with 53 homers.
2016 Outlook
Now Jung-ho Kang ended up piecing together 467 plate appearances in 126 games for Pittsburgh in 2015, hitting 15 homers with a .287/.355/.461 line. Do note that he didn’t get consistent playing time for quite a while, which can really work against a player. Steamer only projects Park for 386 PAs in 94 games, presumably weighing in the risk of him bombing out and/or needing to work in with guys like Joe Mauer and Miguel Sano between 1B and DH.
Park’s power should play more readily than Kang’s, as Park’s average home run distance was just a couple of inches below 430 feet. That would have been good for best in the majors last year. Now obviously another caveat is that KBO pitching is easier to hit compared to the MLB. The takeaway here is that if it were so “easy”, then Park’s KBO numbers wouldn’t stand out like this. It isn’t all sunshine when it comes to comparisons though, as Park struck out 161 times last year in 622 PAs, whereas Kang’s career high in Ks was 109 in 532 PAs. Park has a heavier swing for sure, which stands to reason. But this means it could require some tweaking for major league level pitching.
He certainly has earned a shot and being a right handed batter entering Target Field is much better than being a lefty, although Target Field in general gets a bit of a bad rap compared to the numbers. Just as the Twins signed Park for relatively little (four years, $12M with incentives), you can draft him pretty cheaply in about the 16th round. While I wish that price tag was a bit lower, I understand the "shiny new toy" effect. Hope that the Miguel Sano outfield exercise works out, because if Mauer and Park can rotate as necessary at 1B and DH (pending how Park’s defense holds up, so far the reviews are mixed) then he could earn consistent playing time. Then of course his slot in the lineup will also be relevant for runs and RBI opportunities.
Conclusion
If Park can get his bearings in the majors ASAP, you stand the best chance at profiting. His floor, unfortunately, is a guy who can’t keep up with competition, can’t turn on the inside pitch with that mighty swing, and is demoted to the minors. I believe his ceiling is a ~30 home run bat with a .270 average, though much of that will depend on how well he can counter the adjustments made against him. He should get his chance with the commitment Minnesota just made to him, especially with the Twins not being strong contenders this year. Park is a fun CI lottery ticket to take with healthy upside.
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