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Chicago’s Mitchell Trubisky and Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes may have been drafted higher in the first round this past April, but Houston’s Deshaun Watson might become the biggest fantasy sleeper and the most productive quarterback out of the rookie trio by the time the 2017 season concludes.
The last time most football fans saw Watson in action, he was torching the best defense in college football in the BCS Championship game for 420 passing yards, 43 rushing yards and four total touchdowns (and giving Alabama head honcho Nick Saban a few ulcers).
If people were not sold on Watson as a future NFL quarterback before that night, that performance alone might have cinched it.
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Deshaun Watson's Time Is Now
The Houston Texans were as desperate for a quarterback as Ja Rule is for another festival to promote. Quarterback Brock Osweiler set the offense back 10 years with his inaccuracy and indecisiveness last season after being paid multimillions to be Houston’s starting signal caller. He ruined No. 1 wideout DeAndre Hopkins’ fantasy value and did not help top tailback Lamar Miller’s, either, since defenses keyed on the Texans’ running back since they had no respect for the passing attack.
This Savage has not been a "Macho Man"
Tom Savage is the “starter” on Houston’s depth chart for the time being, but the stats on the back of his football card are about as impressive as the stats on the back of Michael Jordan’s baseball card. All Savage has done during his first three NFL seasons is get himself injured every time he had an opportunity to play. Savage has never thrown or ran for a touchdown in the five games he has seen in action in. He has completed 56 passes (none for over 35 yards), thrown an interception and fumbled once. A concussion, a shoulder sprain and a knee injury have marred his three years in the league. Savage has not proven that he can stay healthy or be an NFL quarterback yet.
Watson is far from elementary, and neither are his weapons
Watson is a pass-run dual threat who can light up scoreboards with big plays from anywhere on the field. He has an ongoing knock against him that he is undersized and his body might not hold up if continually hammered by NFL-size defenders (another RG III?), but until he proves the skeptics right fantasy owners have to believe his superior skill set outweighs the possibility of him being fragile.
Watson has weapons to work with in Houston. Fellow Clemson product Hopkins is one of the best wide receivers in the business. How good is he? Well, he was able to catch 78 passes for 954 yards last year while he was constantly double-covered and having to have gloves like Ozzie Smith to field passes from Osweiler that would sail over his head or land at his feet. If he is even targeted 150 times like he was last year and Watson is the one doing the targeting, Hopkins is in line for 90 receptions for 1,350 yards and 11 touchdowns, if not more. Hopkins is better than any pass catcher Trubisky or Mahomes have in their receiving corps.
Watson also has a decent workhorse ball carrier in Miller that Watson can run fun read-option and pass-action pass plays with. Establishing the run early in games with Miller will open up opportunities for Watson to run outside and throw downfield. Not needing to carry the offense on his back is immeasurably great for Watson.
It is easier to throw to underrated tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz (54 receptions for 559 yards, four TD in 2016) than pronounce his name. Watson should look to him on third downs and in the red zone more than other Texans’ quarterbacks have in the past. Hopefully former third-round picks Braxton Miller and Jaelen Strong step up and one of them becomes a solid No. 2 WR behind Hopkins since Will Fuller is out with a cracked collarbone. I would not be surprised to see Miller transition from QB to WR almost as well as Washington’s Terrelle Pryor has, especially if Watson wins the starting job.
Watson will be the starter and a sleeper
Here is what we know. Watson complied astronomical numbers during his collegiate career that were much better than Savage’s. Watson was drafted in the first round by Houston, while Savage was taken in the fourth round three years prior. Watson has proven he can win big games, overcome long odds and make play after play via his arm or feet. Savage has not proven anything.
If Watson does not emerge from training camp as Houston’s starting quarterback, he will before the season is at the halfway mark, and when he does he will become one of the most significant sleepers in fantasy football for 2017.
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