Reviewing Bill Dubiel's Bold Predictions for 2017

7 years ago by Bill Dubiel

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Let's mine through the poop pile and see if we can dig out...I don't know, some undigested corn or something. There's a few good ones here. SHUT UP, I don't see you making any bold predictions.

1. Max Kepler hits 30 bombs AND is a top-30 outfielder.

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Ehhhhhh not so much. Kepler fell outside of the top 50 and only cracked 19 bombs. There isn't a ton to analyze here--I developed a crush last year and thought I saw enough for Kepler to make a jump into the upper echelon. I was incorrect, and I'm not sure if Kepler will ever hit 30 bombs to be honest.

Grade: C-

2. Miguel Cabrera wins the AL MVP award.

Grade: J+

3. Stephen Strasburg pitches 200 innings AND is a top-five SP.

Hey this one's pretty good! Stras got a good 175 innings in and finished around SP7, so this one is pretty darn close. The talent is undeniable, but my goodness this poor guy can't stay healthy for a full season. We could be talking about him at the end of his career like we talk about Ken Griffey, Jr.--what would his numbers look like if he was healthy his whole career?

Grade: B+

4. Masahiro Tanaka finishes as a top-10 SP.

Big ole swing-and-a-miss here. Tanaka just didn't have the stuff all year, finishing with and ERA just under 5.00 (although, as I write this he's shutting down the Tribe in the playoffs). He's still going to be a staple of the MLB for a while given how young he is, and I have no doubt that as long as his elbow holds up he'll have plenty of excellent seasons.

Grade: D

5. Greg Bird finishes as a top-10 1B.

He was hurt, so we'll never know will we?

Grade: F

6. Wade Davis finishes as a top-five closer.

So I didn't completely whiff here. Davis finished with a sparkling 2.30 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, but he unfortunately didn't have the counting stats to finish as a top-five closer. He tallied just 32 saves, but blew only one. So it's not a terrible bold prediction, but it also isn't correct.

Grade: B

7. J.T. Realmuto finishes as a top-five catcher.

Yeahhhh buddy. I talked Realmuto up all offseason, and it paid off. He finished third behind only Gary Sanchez and Buster Posey, thanks in large part to a solid .278 batting average and 17 homers. Toss in the eight steals that he added and he brought plenty of all-around production to the table. He should be drafted as a top-five catcher next year, but remember that it was Roto_Dubs who told you first.