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Whether or not you share my trepidation regarding the term "sleeper," we can all agree that what we're after in our fantasy drafts is value. Beyond the ultimate result of victory or not, nothing in this game is more satisfying that getting a great player for way less than you should have had to pay.
Over the next several days, I’m offering my thoughts on potential 2018 fantasy baseball draft bargains at every position. If you missed the catcher values, you can find those here.
Today, we're looking at first base.
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Who You Want on First - Value Picks
Carlos Santana, Philadelphia Phillies
Santana has been quite consistent and durable since becoming a full-time player in 2011. Over those seven seasons, he’s averaged 153 games played, 24 HR, 79 R, 80 RBI, and 5 SB. While his career .249 batting average is mediocre, he’s bested that mark by at least 10 points in three of the last five seasons. Moving to Citizens Bank Park should also provide a slight boost to the switch-hitter’s production, as it’s friendlier to hitting from the right side than Progressive Field. Opinions vary on the lineup’s bottom half, which is fair. The top is where Santana will reside, though, and it’s going to be pretty, pretty, prettttttaaaayyyyyy…pretty good.
Jose Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals
The 29-year-old is intriguing for both his 6’7” frame and the overhaul of his swing last year, as he added loft and put up a .309/.379/.518 line with 14 home runs in just over 300 plate appearances. While Martinez doesn’t technically have a starting job locked up for the Cardinals, the market has priced in playing time concerns – to a fault. The roster has enough moving parts that he should see the field plenty, especially since one of those parts (Matt Carpenter, slotted in the first chair at first base) is already questionable for Opening Day. Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Pham, and Dexter Fowler can all play at any of the outfield positions, opening one of the corners for Martinez.
Yonder Alonso, Cleveland Indians
Speaking of added loft, Alonso was one of the most prominent examples in a season full of them. He’d never cracked double-digits before last season, when he exploded for 28. 20 of those, though, came in the first half. This fact is not lost on fantasy owners. The popular narrative is that after Alonso adjusted, the league adjusted back, and perhaps that’s true. But even the second-half model of Alonso was better than anything he’d shown before, and he’s moving to a great park for lefty power and a better lineup. That fade has made Alonso a rare beast indeed – the post-breakout player who remains a bargain.
Logan Morrison, Minnesota Twins
You could certainly say the same of Morrison, who barely had a market for his services despite launching 38 home runs last season. Like Alonso, Morrison had been around for several years without showing much utility for fantasy owners. His 2017 coming out party was, as with Alonso, fueled by the fly ball revolution. Both players are 30 years old, both have always at least had a good grasp of the strike zone, and their ADPs this year are virtually identical. I’m getting scared, guys. Let’s move on.
Colin Moran, Pittsburgh Pirates
Moran was an afterthought in the Astros’ insanely stacked organization, but his potential for fantasy value skyrocketed once he found himself dealt to Pittsburgh in the Gerrit Cole trade. The Pirates are reportedly planning to start him at third base, which makes sense because under no circumstances should Josh Bell play anywhere but first. The lineup isn’t great and the home park is pitcher-friendly, but Moran’s yet another guy who benefited from a swing change geared toward hitting the ball in the air. When you’re past the 400th pick, “has playing time and plausible upside” is plenty good value.
