Contact Rate Risers and Fallers for Week 14: Buy or Sell?

Welcome to Contact Rate Risers and Fallers! Our premium tools allow us to get out ahead of trends in player performance, including contact rate. Every Wednesday, we'll be looking at some players that have seen an increase in contact rate and some that have seen it decline.

Contact rate can foretell a player's batting average and general hitting statistics, and any drastic change could signal a shift in performance. Contact rate shifts often act as a precursor to hot streaks and slumps.

Here is a breakdown of some of the biggest fantasy relevant risers and fallers in contact rate over the last seven days.

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Contact Rate Risers

Todd Frazier (3B, NYM)

95% contact rate last seven days (+21%)

Frazier may have had a jump in contact rate last week, but it didn’t translate into results. He hit .200 with a .623 OPS and one strikeout over the past seven days. This past week really captures the bizarre career path that Frazier has had ever since leaving Cincinnati. In his first season with the White Sox Frazier posted the highest strikeout rate and lowest contact rate of his career, but also had a career high 40 home runs. In the next two seasons he has cut the strikeouts, and in 2018 Frazier has a 78% contact rate, marking the first time in his career he’s been above the league-wide average. Part of that is because league-wide contact rate has dipped about 3% over the last decade, but it still gives us an idea of how Frazier’s been trending.

This season Frazier hasn’t just become a better contact hitter, he’s become a better line drive hitter. He’s lowered his average launch angle by five degrees to 15.8 and he has a career high 23.3% line drive rate. He’s also demolishing the ball when he makes contact with a 90.4 MPH average exit velocity. His .247 BABIP, while not too far off his career .269 BABIP, seems unusually low given how many line drives Frazier is hitting. Yeah he’s hitting .221 right now, and this would be his third straight season hitting below .230, but he’s actually striking the ball better this season compared to the past two years. Frazier still hits too many popups, and won’t have a good batting average, but he could reasonably reach a batting average around his .266 xBA. The player Frazier is right now isn’t too valuable in a standard mixed league, but he’s a buy-low candidate in deeper leagues.

Dansby Swanson (SS, ATL)

92% contact rate last seven days (+19%)

The Dasnby Swanson breakout train from April came to a crashing halt in May. Since Swanson hit .287 in April he is hitting .218 with a .671 OPS and 25% strikeout rate. Over the last seven days he only struck out twice in 25 plate appearances and hit .304 with a .638 OPS. Even though this was a hot week for Swanson his OPS was so low because all seven of his hits were singles. He did have a 33% line drive rate over the last seven days, which helps explain his luck on batted balls, but a week of only singles with no steals and four RBI doesn’t make up for two months of futility.

Digging into Swanson’s batted ball profile, it becomes apparent that he’s still got plenty of growing left to do at the plate. It’s taken a .312 BABIP for him to maintain a .246 AVG, and Swanson has a below average .234 xBA and .288 xwOBA. There are little nuggets of improvement in Swanson, like his uptick in power. He’s not a good power hitter by any means, but his .167 ISO and .396 xSLG are both marked improvements over previous seasons and his seven home runs are already a career high. Even so, Swanson has had hot streaks like this only to fizzle out shortly after, and that is probably what happened last week. Chances are he’s available in your league, and this week shouldn't change that.

Nomar Mazara (OF, TEX)

96% contact rate last seven days (+19%)

Mazara had himself quite a week, hitting .391 with and .957 OPS and just one strikeout in 23 plate appearances. He’s continuing to producing in what looks like a breakout season. The 23-year-old is posting career highs in batting average (.282), ISO (.199), and OPS (.822). Mazara’s power gains are a little perplexing since he has a 53.7% groundball rate, ninth highest among qualified hitters. A 26% HR/FB explains some of it, and while that rate is unsustainable, a 26% HR/FB ratio for Mazara isn’t as wild as it might seem.

He plays in Globe Life Park, one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the major leagues. He also has a 90.7 MPH average exit velocity overall and a 43% hard contact rate on flyballs, so when he does elevate the ball Mazara smokes it. And since he doesn’t hit that many flyballs Mazara’s HR/FB ratio will be inflated. Eric Hosmer is a good example of this, because Hosmer has maintained a HR/FB ratio over 20% in each of the last three seasons. That’s because Hosmer has good power but doesn’t hit many flyballs in general, so a greater percentage of his flyballs will go over the fence than a heavy flyball hitter. Mazara may see a slight dip in power, but his production won’t come crashing down by any means. With continued improvements in hard hit rate and line drive rate Mazara’s batting average gains look real. Not much to do with him other than reap the rewards of a successful draft pick.

Contact Rate Fallers

Brian Dozier (2B, MIN)

56% contact rate last seven days (-23%)

Where was the June explosion Brian? In the month of June, which has historically been one of Dozier’s best months, he hit .181 with a .645 OPS and just three home runs. That makes his last week look good by comparison, as Dozier hit .226 with a .788 OPS and .194 ISO. He also struck out 12 times in 38 PA. Over the past four seasons Dozier had become known for starting slow only to explode in the second half. We’re now halfway through the season and Dozier is hitting .221 with a .704 OPS and .174 ISO, all four-year lows. He also has a career low 14% line drive rate. His line drives have been replaced by groundballs as Dozier has a 41% groundball rate, the first time his groundball rate has eclipsed 40% since his rookie season.

It’s hard, if not impossible, to give up on Dozier at this point, but there isn’t much in his underlying numbers that suggest misfortune is contributing to his poor results. Dozier has a .206 xBA and .294 xwOBA this season along with a 27.6% Statcast hard hit rate, a 7% drop from last season. His 79.3% contact rate is actually a three-year high, but that does little to foster hope. Now, there is certainly a chance that Dozier turns things around; he’s been known for some of the most gargantuan hot streaks in the majors over the past two seasons. Just be aware that his peripherals don’t suggest improvement. Dozier is a good player for a borderline playoff team to target. A Brian Dozier hot streak could change the tide of a season for teams in the bottom half of the standings, and that's the type of team that should gamble on him. Otherwise owners should just hold on Dozier and hope he turns it around.

Michael Conforto (OF, NYM)

50% contact rate last seven days (-20%)

Michael Conforto seems to find himself on either the risers or fallers side of our contact rate tool every week. Just when we think Conforto is ready to turn things on he has week like this, where he hit .100 with a .558 OPS and ten strikeouts in 26 PA. Conforto hasn’t been too bad in OBP formats. His 15% walk rate gives him a .347 OBP, but with a .223 AVG Conforto has been a liability in standard 5x5 leagues. It’s hard not to wonder how much Conforto’s shoulder injury has affected his ability at the plate. His hard contact rate has fallen to 32.8% and his average exit velocity has fallen to 87.4 MPH.

Conforto came back surprisingly early from that injury to being the season. He was supposed to be back in May, and the Mets activated him on April 5. If it was any other team we wouldn’t approach Conforto’s rehab and injury with such scrutiny, but the Mets have flubbed rehab and hindered player development with so often in the past Conforto’s shoulder has to be a concern. The week-by-week swings in production are encouraging because they suggest the good Michael Conforto is in there somewhere, but it seems unlikely we’ll see a consistently productive version of Conforto this season. He’s fine in OBP leagues, but we might not see the best of Conforto until 2019.

Salvador Perez (C, KC)

61% contact rate last seven days (-18%)

It’s been a rough ride for Perez owners ever since he returned from the disabled list. The last week was particularly bad for Perez, who hit .143 with a .321 OPS and 11 strikeouts in 28 PA. On the season Perez is hitting .213 with a .638 OPS and .173 ISO, a disappointment based on expectations for Perez. Unlike some of the other players in this article, Perez’s case seems obvious.

He is getting horribly unlucky on balls in play. Perez has a .223 BABIP on the season, and while we don’t expect a catcher coming off a knee injury to have a high BABIP, a .223 BABIP is still about 60 points lower than his career average. Perez has a career best 90.3 MPH average exit velocity and 44% hard contact rate. His .267 xBA and .349 xwOBA both align with his career averages by those metrics. Perez is an easy buy-low target going into the second half. He is hitting just as well as ever, but the results haven’t quite been there yet. There aren’t many good options on the waiver wire, so if you need a catcher exploring a trade for Perez is a way to upgrade at a weak position.

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