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ANALYSIS: Overall, Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Vince Velasquez looks suspiciously like the 2016 version of himself. His K/9 sits around 10.5 (10.44 in ‘16, 10.49 in ‘18) with an ERA that’s roughly half a run higher than his xFIP and SIERA. However, there are some promising differences.
The most notable is how he carried a rough 1.33 WHIP around in ‘16, thanks in large part to a .325 BABIP that was rooted in a 24% line-drive rate. He’s dropped his line-drive rate down to 18.3%, which has helped sink his BABIP down to .294. His WHIP is a tolerable 1.24 this season, which makes chasing those strikeouts much more pleasant. He looked sharp in his return from the comebacker that went off his pitching arm, tossing six scoreless innings against the Mets to put a bow on his first half. Also, for what it’s worth, he has a 3.88 ERA (3.35 FIP, 3.78 xFIP, 3.75 SIERA) over the last two months -- just in case any ERA above 4.00 serves as an automatic disqualification for you.
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