Friday Five: Vexing Valuations

With almost all of my fantasy teams dead in the water at this point, my attention has already begun turning toward the future. Naturally, upon receiving an invitation from The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational overlord, RotoGraphs writer, and t-shirt inspiration Justin Mason to participate in this year's Too Early Mock Draft, I jumped at the opportunity.

I wound up sorted into draft room #2, which will kick things off just minutes after this article is published. Most likely, I'll be writing about how things play out at some point, so keep an eye out for that if you're so inclined.

It would be inaccurate to say that I've given much thought to my approach yet, but here are five players whose 2019 outlooks seem particularly difficult to pin down at this stage.

Polarizing Players

Matt Carpenter, 1B/2B/3B, St. Louis Cardinals

When play concluded on May 25, Carpenter was hitting .200/.318/.367 with four home runs. While his batted ball and Statcast data suggested he'd been fairly unlucky, the fact remained that through 179 plate appearances, he had contributed little in the way of value to his actual team or any fantasy roster. Between May 26 and August 13, over 317 plate appearances, he slashed .325/.432/.728 with 29 home runs. In the past month, he's at .223/.362/.362 with two homers. Carpenter famously remade himself into a power hitter a few years ago, but spent a good chunk of the 2016 and 2017 seasons battling shoulder problems. That nagging injury probably explains his dramatic first and second half splits in those two years. Does it have anything to do with his recent struggles? Hard to say, but he'll also be 33 next season.

Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers

Aguilar looked to be hopelessly buried on the Brewers depth chart when the season began. After importing Christian Yelich via trade and Lorenzo Cain via free agency, Milwaukee had a serious roster crunch on its hands. A combination of injuries, ineffectiveness, or both on the part of multiple teammates created an opening for Aguilar, and he took full advantage. From May 1 through the conclusion of the first half, the first baseman hit an absurd .284/.364/.639 with 23 home runs in just 264 plate appearances. In 185 trips to the plate since the break, Aguilar is hitting just .228/.314/.401 with seven homers. Could just be a slump - or it could be that pitchers have adjusted to a player who, before last season, appeared to be a Quad-A bat.

Eddie Rosario, OF, Minnesota Twins

Rosario was fantastic down the stretch last season, and despite a sluggish April, he finished the first half as one of the best hitters in fantasy baseball. Since the All-Star break, however, the 26-year-old's power has dried up, he's not hitting for average, and he's attempted just two steals. When it's all said and done, his overall 2018 line will bear a strong resemblance to his breakout 2017 performance, but this year's path featured more dramatic peaks and valleys. That's likely to impact his draft cost next spring one way or another.

Ross Stripling, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

After two seasons of solid but unspectacular work as a swingman, Stripling busted out in his age-28 season. He spent most of April pitching in relief, with only one start (a forgettable four inning, 4 ER effort on the final day of the month) but moved into the rotation full time beginning in May. Until an injury sidelined him last month, Stripling was the Dodgers' best pitcher, going 8-2 with a 2.68 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 25.3 K-BB% in 16 starts. He returned from that injury this week, but only pitched 3 1/3 innings in his start on Wednesday. He's close to his career high in innings pitched and the Dodgers are infamous for their starting rotation chicanery, so fantasy owners may not get much more data to work with before having to decide Stripling's 2019 value.

German Marquez, SP, Colorado Rockies

If he keeps going the way he has lately, Marquez is going to win a lot of owners their leagues. He's attracted plenty of attention by logging double-digit strikeouts in each of his last three starts, but the 23-year-old has actually been dominating for the better part of three months now. Since June 30, Marquez has made 13 starts and failed to record a quality start just once. He's only allowed more than two runs twice, and averaged nearly seven innings per outing. The totals: 7-1, 2.45 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 111 strikeouts in 88 innings. It's entirely possible that he's figured something out, but he also had a career 4.81 ERA and 1.45 WHIP (265 innings) prior to this run, and he has to deal with Coors for half of his games. Overdrafting is a strong possibility next spring.

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