Week 11 Consistency Reports - Start/Sit Decisions

6 years ago by Ben Rolfe

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I cannot believe it is Week 11 already! This season has flown by and things in the NFL are starting to settle down. The good teams are really starting to distinguish from bad and the pretenders are falling away a little bit. The same goes for the players in the consistency ratings. The best running backs, wide receivers and tight ends have all risen to the top and the pretenders are falling further down the rankings. Quarterback is a little different due to the nature of the position this year. When players regularly score in the 20s an outlier in the low teens or even close to single digits has a major effect. Even for the best quarterbacks, this can happen if their teams build a big lead early and their offense throttles back somewhat. So while I would use the other positions at face value be sure to take in the whole of the top-20 at quarterback because there are some great players sitting in the high teens.

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

A final note for this article is that although this article will be published following Thursday Night Football, the numbers from those games will not be included. I will also be unlikely to touch on those players unless they stand out as major players you should be targeting on the following week's waiver wires. Therefore, do not be surprised to not see much mention of those players below.

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Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Carson Wentz	149.52	21.36	3.87	17.49	25.23	0.18	139.14
2	Patrick Mahomes	263.8	26.38	6.38	20	32.76	0.24	135.46
3	Cam Newton	200.64	22.29	5.32	16.97	27.61	0.24	115.7
4	Philip Rivers	174.36	19.37	4.01	15.36	23.39	0.21	112.86
5	Alex Smith	135.3	15.03	2.46	12.57	17.49	0.16	106.95
6	Aaron Rodgers	190.14	21.13	5.51	15.61	26.64	0.26	102.09
7	Matt Ryan	218.56	24.28	8.36	15.92	32.65	0.34	94.79
8	Russell Wilson	173.68	19.3	5.34	13.96	24.64	0.28	89.06
9	Andrew Luck	190.98	21.22	6.8	14.42	28.02	0.32	87.47
10	Ben Roethlisberger	205.02	22.78	8.85	13.93	31.63	0.39	81.43
11	Kirk Cousins	179.5	19.94	7.51	12.43	27.46	0.38	72.9
12	Jared Goff	209.56	20.96	8.77	12.18	29.73	0.42	71.02
13	Drew Brees	206.84	22.98	11.22	11.76	34.21	0.49	70.04
14	Tom Brady	178.72	17.87	6.19	11.68	24.06	0.35	69.49
15	Deshaun Watson	182.36	20.26	8.44	11.82	28.71	0.42	68.88
16	Baker Mayfield	128.46	16.06	5.05	11.01	21.11	0.31	67.1
17	Mitchell Trubisky	204.16	22.68	12.32	10.36	35	0.54	64.45
18	Matthew Stafford	149.2	16.58	5.78	10.8	22.35	0.35	64.15
19	Ryan Fitzpatrick	157.76	22.54	12.28	10.25	34.82	0.55	63.89
20	Eli Manning	136.5	15.17	4.75	10.41	19.92	0.31	63.57
21	Dak Prescott	154.8	17.2	7.08	10.12	24.28	0.41	59
22	Joe Flacco	139.22	15.47	5.51	9.96	20.98	0.36	58.91
23	CJ Beathard	80.98	16.2	6.25	9.94	22.45	0.39	58.15
24	Jimmy Garoppolo	46.02	15.34	5.76	9.58	21.1	0.38	56.19
25	Andy Dalton	147.1	16.34	6.79	9.56	23.13	0.42	55.7
26	Blake Bortles	158.58	17.62	8.75	8.87	26.37	0.5	53.09
27	Case Keenum	129.5	14.39	5.63	8.76	20.02	0.39	51.14
28	Nick Mullens	32.28	16.14	8.54	7.6	24.68	0.53	46.64
29	Jameis Winston	68.34	17.09	11.49	5.6	28.57	0.67	42.49
30	Derek Carr	131.94	14.66	8.51	6.15	23.17	0.58	39.9

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through three games from largest to smallest. Alex Smith continues to be one of the most consistent quarterbacks in the league for fantasy owners. However, with a ceiling five or more points lower than anyone else in the top-10 he is somewhat of a false top-10 option. In two-quarterback leagues where you need safety and consistency from that second quarterback position he is perfect. In one quarterback leagues not so much.

Interestingly Philip Rivers also has some of that about him this season. Rivers has a ceiling of under 24 fantasy points, which is at least a couple of points behind most of the rest of the top-15. That would be fine if his floor was significantly above the others, but it is not. It may seem crazy given their record but there is a case to be made that Rivers is a quarterback that is hard to start on a week-to-week basis.

Tom Brady is sliding down these rankings and I looked at why that is happening and what you should do about it here. On the other hand, a name lower down this list that needs serious consideration is Dak Prescott. Prescott's fantasy points over the last four games are 33, 21, 18 and 22, which is among the top-10 quarterbacks in that time frame. In addition, his schedule going forward is incredibly favorable, with four opponents ranked in the top-10 for most fantasy points surrendered to the QB position, and only one team among the 10 best.

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Elijah McGuire	17.7	8.85	0.21	8.64	9.06	0.02	378.07
2	Todd Gurley	282	28.2	5.01	23.19	33.21	0.18	186.87
3	Melvin Gordon	205.3	25.66	6.15	19.51	31.82	0.24	132.67
4	Saquon Barkley	216.6	24.07	6.62	17.44	30.69	0.28	111.52
5	Alvin Kamara	240.9	26.77	11.99	14.78	38.76	0.45	86.52
6	Christian McCaffrey	203.8	22.64	8.25	14.39	30.9	0.36	84.78
7	James Conner	220.8	24.53	11.25	13.28	35.78	0.46	78.04
8	James White	207.2	20.72	8.38	12.34	29.1	0.4	71.97
9	Ezekiel Elliott	184.3	20.48	8.88	11.6	29.36	0.43	67.7
10	Kareem Hunt	211.1	21.11	10.38	10.73	31.49	0.49	64.06
11	TJ Yeldon	148.3	16.48	6.17	10.31	22.64	0.37	60.51
12	Joe Mixon	123.9	17.7	7.88	9.82	25.58	0.45	57.47
13	Alex Collins	107.8	11.98	3.44	8.54	15.41	0.29	53.73
14	David Johnson	157.5	17.5	8.8	8.7	26.3	0.5	52.32
15	Marshawn Lynch	79	13.17	4.92	8.24	18.09	0.37	48.39
16	Phillip Lindsay	119.1	13.23	5.39	7.85	18.62	0.41	45.75
17	Devonta Freeman	14.1	7.05	1.34	5.71	8.39	0.19	44.04
18	Kerryon Johnson	124.7	13.86	6.45	7.41	20.31	0.47	43.62
19	Justin Jackson	4.6	2.3	0.14	2.16	2.44	0.06	39.71
20	Tevin Coleman	125.6	13.96	7.81	6.15	21.76	0.56	38.91
21	Tarik Cohen	138.9	15.43	10.36	5.07	25.8	0.67	38.42
22	Lamar Miller	96	12	5.51	6.49	17.51	0.46	38.13
23	Adrian Peterson	129	14.33	8.85	5.48	23.19	0.62	37.54
24	Marlon Mack	80.5	16.1	12.8	3.3	28.9	0.79	36.36
25	Mark Ingram	69.5	13.9	9.1	4.8	23	0.65	35.14
26	Ito Smith	71.3	8.91	3.15	5.76	12.07	0.35	34.11
27	Javorius Allen	95.3	10.59	4.83	5.76	15.42	0.46	33.79
28	Dion Lewis	113.6	12.62	7.71	4.91	20.33	0.61	33.29
29	Jalen Richard	93.7	10.41	4.8	5.61	15.21	0.46	33.01
30	Jordan Howard	97.8	10.87	5.33	5.53	16.2	0.49	33.01
31	Theo Riddick	62.4	8.91	3.34	5.57	12.26	0.37	32.7
32	Kenyan Drake	128	12.8	8.53	4.27	21.33	0.67	32
33	Jay Ajayi	43.4	10.85	5.69	5.16	16.54	0.52	31.55
34	Aaron Jones	92.3	13.19	9.58	3.61	22.76	0.73	31.34
35	Dalvin Cook	44.4	11.1	6.26	4.84	17.36	0.56	30.79
36	Chris Thompson	66.2	13.24	10.12	3.12	23.36	0.76	30.56
37	Austin Ekeler	99.1	11.01	6.45	4.57	17.46	0.59	29.82
38	Royce Freeman	61	8.71	3.64	5.07	12.36	0.42	29.56
39	Matt Breida	120.6	12.06	8.73	3.33	20.79	0.72	28.71
40	Leonard Fournette	40.9	13.63	12.52	1.12	26.15	0.92	28.48
41	Nyheim Hines	100.7	11.19	7.31	3.88	18.5	0.65	28.31
42	Wendell Smallwood	79.4	9.93	5.47	4.46	15.39	0.55	27.95
43	Chris Carson	77.7	11.1	7.45	3.65	18.55	0.67	27.64
44	Latavius Murray	102.9	11.43	8.34	3.09	19.78	0.73	27.1
45	Giovani Bernard	60.9	12.18	10	2.18	22.18	0.82	27.02
46	Isaiah Crowell	117.3	11.73	9.12	2.61	20.85	0.78	26.81
47	Sony Michel	76.4	10.91	8.04	2.88	18.95	0.74	25.74
48	Bilal Powell	62.3	8.9	4.93	3.97	13.83	0.55	24.97
49	LeSean McCoy	93.1	10.34	7.32	3.03	17.66	0.71	24.96
50	Mike Davis	90.6	11.33	9.97	1.36	21.29	0.88	24.19

Elijah McGuire is obviously a false number one here because he has only played two games. However, he is a player who should be added in most leagues with Crowell struggling to put up yards and McGuire fresh after missing the first eight games of the season with injury. He is really the only player in the top-14 who is somewhat false.

I wanted to discuss Marshawn Lynch being 15th as a way to highlight that Doug Martin could have some nice games down the stretch. While much of this Raiders team seem to be done with the year Martin is auditioning for his future and the Raiders have been able to get decent yardage at times this season.

It is nice to see Kerryon Johnson in the top-20 and with the Detroit season slipping away I think they get him involved more and more as they look to the future. We could see a similar story with Ito Smith as the Falcons need to make a decision about Tevin Coleman this year. Therefore, if the Falcons season slips away we may see more carries for Smith and then he would become an interesting weekly flex play. It is not the case this week but if they lose to the Cowboys it could be time soon.

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Adam Thielen	217.7	24.19	6.01	18.18	30.2	0.25	121.5
2	Julian Edelman	102.4	17.07	2.84	14.23	19.91	0.17	119.67
3	Antonio Brown	186	20.67	4.64	16.02	25.31	0.22	112.66
4	DeAndre Hopkins	198.7	22.08	6.08	16	28.16	0.28	102.28
5	Davante Adams	194.7	21.63	6.41	15.23	28.04	0.3	94.67
6	Julio Jones	187	20.78	6.55	14.23	27.32	0.32	86.73
7	AJ Green	156.7	19.59	5.98	13.61	25.56	0.31	83.77
8	Michael Thomas	217	24.11	11.67	12.44	35.78	0.48	73.93
9	Odell Beckham Jr	178.6	19.84	7.42	12.43	27.26	0.37	72.94
10	Brandin Cooks	165.8	18.42	6.76	11.66	25.18	0.37	68.62
11	Willie Snead	101.1	11.23	2.24	8.99	13.48	0.2	67.48
12	Keenan Allen	141.1	15.68	5.22	10.46	20.9	0.33	62.75
13	Deandre Carter	4.1	2.05	0.07	1.98	2.12	0.03	61.48
14	Emmanuel Sanders	156.4	17.38	7.05	10.32	24.43	0.41	60.19
15	Tyreek Hill	209.2	20.92	11.51	9.41	32.43	0.55	58.94
16	JuJu Smith-Schuster	151.5	16.83	6.88	9.95	23.72	0.41	58.01
17	Robert Woods	169.3	16.93	7.17	9.76	24.1	0.42	56.92
18	Tyler Lockett	128.2	14.24	4.85	9.39	19.09	0.34	56.08
19	Stefon Diggs	150.3	18.79	9.8	8.99	28.59	0.52	54.81
20	Dontrelle Inman	19.3	9.65	2.19	7.46	11.84	0.23	52.13
21	Mike Evans	161.7	17.97	9.92	8.04	27.89	0.55	50.49
22	Tyler Boyd	151.8	16.87	9.2	7.67	26.06	0.55	47.81
23	TY Hilton	96	13.71	5.73	7.99	19.44	0.42	46.55
24	Cooper Kupp	135.1	16.89	10.49	6.4	27.38	0.62	44.07
25	DeSean Jackson	137.2	15.24	8.09	7.16	23.33	0.53	43.98
26	Alshon Jeffery	98.9	16.48	10.04	6.44	26.53	0.61	43.54
27	Will Fuller	108.3	15.47	8.55	6.92	24.02	0.55	43.46
28	Golden Tate	123.8	15.48	8.89	6.59	24.36	0.57	42.42
29	Kenny Golladay	123.9	13.77	6.99	6.78	20.76	0.51	40.88
30	Geronimo Allison	62.3	12.46	5.98	6.48	18.44	0.48	38.42
31	Chris Godwin	110.3	12.26	5.76	6.5	18.01	0.47	38.34
32	Allen Robinson	100.8	14.4	8.82	5.58	23.22	0.61	37.9
33	Michael Crabtree	104.2	11.58	5.1	6.48	16.67	0.44	37.89
34	Sterling Shepard	120.8	13.42	7.43	5.99	20.86	0.55	37.66
35	Josh Gordon	97.4	12.18	5.97	6.21	18.14	0.49	37.02
36	Nelson Agholor	101.7	11.3	5.03	6.27	16.33	0.44	36.71
37	Jarvis Landry	134	13.4	7.78	5.62	21.18	0.58	36.49
38	Dede Westbrook	105.3	11.7	5.63	6.07	17.33	0.48	36.03
39	Demaryius Thomas	104.3	11.59	5.5	6.09	17.09	0.47	35.99
40	Devin Funchess	109.7	12.19	6.26	5.93	18.44	0.51	35.94
41	John Brown	118.7	13.19	7.74	5.45	20.93	0.59	35.67
42	Marvin Jones	116.8	12.98	7.51	5.47	20.49	0.58	35.4
43	Cameron Meredith	26.4	8.8	3.01	5.79	11.81	0.34	34.51
44	Calvin Ridley	131.2	14.58	11.9	2.68	26.47	0.82	32.44
45	Anthony Miller	87.8	10.98	5.73	5.25	16.7	0.52	32
46	Tyrell Williams	107.2	11.91	7.29	4.63	19.2	0.61	31.38
47	Corey Davis	117	13	9.24	3.76	22.24	0.71	31.28
48	Sammy Watkins	116.7	12.97	9.38	3.59	22.35	0.72	30.89
49	Mohamed Sanu	93.2	10.36	5.24	5.11	15.6	0.51	30.82
50	Albert Wilson	90.7	12.96	9.55	3.41	22.5	0.74	30.55

There is not much to say about the top-12 here. I have spoken about Willie Snead and how his consistency makes him a flex play. This week is a little different with the question marks around who will take snaps under center. If it is Flacco then Snead is a fine play but we often see weird target patters when backups take snaps, as they often tend to target guys they have comfort with from practice.

With 11 targets, 10 receptions and 93 yards in the last two games Dontrelle Inman could be an interesting option down the stretch. Outside of Hilton, Luck has struggled to find a receiver he can trust and if Inman could be that guy then he could regularly see five or more targets down the stretch.

Mike Evans is absolutely falling away here and the constant quarterback changes are a big part of the reason. He is a quality receiver but that situation in Tampa Bay seems somewhat toxic. I hope that is the case rather than this being a sign of worrying things to come for Evans. Alshon Jeffery is a frustrating name because of the mouths to feed in Philadelphia, a problem which has simply transferred from the Lions with Golden Tate's move. However, in Philly it is even worse with Zack Ertz also demanding plenty of targets as well as the receiving trio.

A final note on Demaryius Thomas, who has now had a bye week to get to grip with this offense. The Texans face a tough matchup with the Redskins so this is not the week to play him if you can avoid it. However, what I need to see is a solid target share and regular snaps to feel confident he can be a contributor down the stretch. Oh and Tennessee please target Corey Davis at least 10 times a game for the rest of the season. The dude is a monster and if he is a regular part of this offense he is a WR2 every week.

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Zach Ertz	185.9	20.66	9.46	11.2	30.11	0.46	65.77
2	Eric Ebron	143.3	15.92	7.09	8.83	23.01	0.45	51.67
3	Travis Kelce	171.7	17.17	8.56	8.61	25.73	0.5	51.61
4	George Kittle	148.5	14.85	6.78	8.07	21.63	0.46	47.37
5	Tyler Conklin	3.3	1.65	0.07	1.58	1.72	0.04	40.15
6	Jordan Reed	84.1	9.34	3.21	6.14	12.55	0.34	36.56
7	Greg Olsen	68.8	11.47	5.3	6.17	16.77	0.46	36.28
8	Hakeem Valles	3.1	1.55	0.07	1.48	1.62	0.05	35.53
9	OJ Howard	111.7	12.41	7.41	5	19.83	0.6	33.19
10	Kyle Rudolph	83.9	9.32	3.68	5.65	13	0.39	32.96
11	Austin Hooper	106.8	11.87	7.46	4.4	19.33	0.63	30.73
12	Tyler Eifert	38.9	9.73	4.65	5.07	14.38	0.48	30.05
13	Rob Gronkowski	79.8	11.4	6.99	4.41	18.39	0.61	30
14	Trey Burton	106.1	11.79	7.88	3.91	19.67	0.67	29.43
15	Jared Cook	114.6	12.73	10.15	2.58	22.88	0.8	28.71
16	Jack Doyle	42.6	10.65	6.73	3.92	17.38	0.63	27.5
17	Jimmy Graham	88.9	9.88	5.71	4.16	15.59	0.58	26.95
18	Vance McDonald	81	10.13	6.28	3.85	16.4	0.62	26.45
19	Geoff Swaim	49.8	7.11	3.34	3.77	10.46	0.47	22.25
20	Mark Andrews	57.4	6.38	2.65	3.73	9.03	0.42	21.71
21	Ben Watson	68.3	8.54	5.55	2.99	14.09	0.65	21.67
22	Evan Engram	54.1	9.02	6.49	2.53	15.51	0.72	21.54
23	David Njoku	86.8	8.68	6.1	2.58	14.78	0.7	21.02
24	Chris Herndon	65.7	8.21	5.3	2.91	13.51	0.65	20.94
25	Will Dissly	35.6	8.9	8.98	-0.08	17.88	1.01	17.72
26	Ricky Seals-Jones	58.7	6.52	3.82	2.7	10.34	0.59	17.66
27	Dallas Goedert	55.8	7.97	7.46	0.51	15.43	0.94	16.49
28	Jesse James	68.4	7.6	6.95	0.65	14.55	0.91	15.91
29	Erik Swoope	33.3	6.66	4.83	1.83	11.49	0.73	15.83
30	Jake Butt	16.5	5.5	3.04	2.46	8.54	0.55	15.44

We finish with the position that involves a lot of closing your eyes and pointing at one and hoping. We have three consistent options in Ertz, Kelce and Kittle. We have the guy I have no clue about in Ebron, who seemingly gets all the touchdowns for the Colts despite Jack Doyle being the clear number one. We then have nine guys (Reed, Olsen, Howard, Rudolph, Hooper, Burton, Cook and Doyle) who I feel confident in using when they are active. Then there is Gronkowski, who will always be someone you desperately want to start when he is active but his value is so dependent on game situation that it is frustrating.

Outside of that group I like Ben Watson, Ricky Seals-Jones and Vance McDonald as semi-streaming options and we have Evan Engram and David Njoku as the talented guys who do not get enough targets right now. However, that might be about ti change for Engram!