RADIO
Hey there RotoBallers! With most season-long fantasy leagues about to kick off their playoffs, DFS can provide either a distraction from the proceedings or an opportunity for those eliminated to continue to enjoy fantasy football well into the NFL playoffs. The Week 14 main slate boasts three projected high-scoring games with over/under of 50 points or more. That would include the Ravens-Chiefs game (53.0 points), Saints-Buccaneers (56.0), and Steelers-Raiders (51.5).
The goal of this weekly column will be to locate some of the best DFS stacks each week. Stacking, or pairing a quarterback with one of his pass-catchers, is a great way to maximize point scoring. This method is generally viewed as a strategy in tournaments, but I also have no problem using safe, high-floor stacks in cash games, as well.
The top Week 14 DFS stacks will be listed below, loosely sorted by salary. The focus will be on the main slate (1:00 PM and 4:00 PM EST Sunday) games across both sites. All references to team defense DVOA come from Football Outsiders while cornerback and wide receiver matchups and grade references come from Pro Football Focus.
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High-Priced Week 14 DFS Stacks
New Orleans QB Drew Brees and WR Michael Thomas @ Tampa Bay
It seems like Drew Brees and the Saints tend to lay at least one stinker every season. This time, it came during the Week 13 Thursday night game against a very underrated Dallas Cowboys defense. Look for Brees to bounce back against a Tampa Bay defense that is one of the most giving in the entire league. Tampa Bay's secondary ranks 29th in the league in pass defense DVOA and is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. New Orleans has an implied team total of 32 points, and the Bucs offense is good enough that they should be able to keep the pressure on the Saints to throw throughout the game.
Michael Thomas struggled along with the rest of the New Orleans offense in a Week 13 letdown against the Cowboys. Look for the talented wideout to make up for it in a big way in Week 14 against Tampa. Thomas shredded these same Bucs for 16 catches, 180 yards, and a score back in Week 1. Tampa Bay will primarily attempt to counter Thomas with right corner Ryan Smith, who allowed 75 receiving yards to Thomas in the season opener and has been smashed by Julio Jones and D.J. Moore in subsequent other weeks. Smith has only played over 69% of defensive snaps four times this season and the only time he played that much and was able to hold his primary receiver in check was in Week 2 against Kamar Aiken.
Los Angeles QB Philip Rivers and WR Keenan Allen vs. Cincinnati
Rivers, continually overlooked in the fantasy community, draws one of the top matchups of the week as a sinking Cincinnati defense will make the cross-country trip to Los Angeles in Week 14. Rivers has been a picture of consistency this season, passing for two or more touchdowns in all 12 of his games played. He will take his shots against a Bengals defense that ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA and is allowing the most fantasy points per game to the position. The Chargers have a huge 31-point implied point total as 14-point home favorites. If they reach that gaudy point total, Rivers will presumably have had a big hand in it.
Allen has rebounded from a slow first half to rack up touchdowns in four straight games while catching at least six passes in five straight. The slot receiver should have little trouble shredding the Bengals and slot corner Darqueze Dennard on Sunday. Dennard has a 57.4 grade at Pro Football Focus, giving Allen a good chance at a big game. Outside of Allen, the rest of the Charger pass-catchers have been tough to project when it comes to target volume.
Moderately-Priced Week 14 DFS Stacks
Houston QB Deshaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. Indianapolis
Fantasy gamers have seen Watson's ceiling lowered a bit with Houston rolling out a run-heavy approach of late. Fortunately, a strong Indianapolis offense should offer enough of a challenge to assure that the Texans have to pass more frequently than in recent weeks. Vegas thinks this game should stay close, with the home team Texans just 3.5-point favorites. From a matchup standpoint, the Colts defense could also force Watson to air it out a bit. Indy's pass defense ranks just 21st in DVOA while their stout run defense is fourth. That should serve to funnel extra pass attempts onto Watson's plate.
With the recent run-heavy approach, Hopkins hasn't had a blowup game since Week 9 against Denver. That could change when he takes on a familiar Colts defense this weekend. Hopkins ripped the Colts secondary for 10 catches, 169 yards, and a score when they met back in Week 4. Nuk should mostly see coverage from Colts right corner Pierre Desir in Week 14, who was also his preferred victim back in Week 4 with 94 of his receiving yards coming in Desir's coverage.
Dallas QB Dak Prescott and WR Amari Cooper vs. Philadelphia
The Cowboys will look to stay hot as they welcome a floundering Philadelphia defense to town in Week 14. The Eagles' extremely banged up secondary ranks just 19th in the league in DVOA against the pass this season. Prescott has seen his stock improve in the five games since the Amari Cooper trade, averaging 251.6 passing yards while throwing six touchdowns and just one interception over that span. He's also added two rushing touchdowns in those five games, giving him five on the season.
Cooper has been excellent since being acquired by the Cowboys, averaging 8.0 targets, 6.0 receptions, and 84.8 yards with three touchdowns in his five games in Dallas. Clearly the Cowboys' No. 1 wideout, Cooper draws a plus matchup against a struggling Eagles secondary this weekend. Philly is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers on the year and will be forced to use Sidney Jones to attempt to slow Cooper. Jones has just a 56.5 grade over at PFF.
Bargain-Priced Week 14 DFS Stacks
Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston and WR Chris Godwin vs. New Orleans
Winston, reinstalled as the starter ahead of Week 12, has played well over his past two games, throwing four touchdowns without committing a turnover. The veteran signal-caller will look to keep it going against a Saints defense that has been vulnerable to opposing quarterbacks. New Orleans ranks 22nd in pass defense DVOA, which plays right into the hands of the pass-happy Buccaneers offense. Winston has plenty of upside in this projected shootout in Week 14.
Mike Evans remains Winston's No. 1 wide receiver, but there's reason to consider pivoting from him to second-year standout Chris Godwin in lineups this weekend. Godwin saw increased looks in Week 13 with DeSean Jackson sidelined, finishing with five catches for 101 yards and a touchdown. The Saints have been shredded by opposing wideouts this season but Marshon Lattimore is their best corner and it will be his task to shadow Evans. Evans has had mixed success against Lattimore in the three games they have tangled, getting shut down twice in 2017 and topping 100 yards in Week 1 this season. Lattimore shadowing Evans leaves Giants castoff Eli Apple to attempt to slow Godwin. Apple's play has earned him a 53.5 grade from PFF this season.
Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger and TE Vance McDonald @ Oakland
Roethlisberger heads to Oakland having accounted for multiple touchdowns in five of his past six games played, with the one outlier coming against Denver where he still managed to pass for 462 yards. The Raiders have been a favorable opponent for quarterbacks this season, ranking dead last in pass defense DVOA and allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the position.
While the Raiders have been a weak defense against the pass, they have shown some interesting strong points this season. Despite struggling against the pass, Oakland has done a nice job locking up opposing WR1s and WR2s, ranking first and fourth in DVOA, respectively. Tight end is one position where we can hope to take advantage of Oakland in fantasy, where they rank last in DVOA and are allowing the most fantasy points per game to the position. Vance McDonald has been boom/bust this season, but he sets up perfectly as a tournament pairing with Big Ben.
"YOLO" Contrarian Stack
Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes and TE Travis Kelce vs. Baltimore
Mahomes has been the best quarterback in fantasy all season, although his Week 14 matchup against a tough Baltimore defense could give pause to many daily gamers. While this registers as one of his most difficult matchups on the season, Mahomes has played so well that he is on the board as a GPP option regardless of opponent. The Ravens rank No. 5 in the league in pass defense DVOA and are allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. That should serve to suppress Mahomes' ownership on Sunday.
Baltimore has been able to shut down opposing wideouts but defending the tight end has been one of their few weak spots. The Ravens rank 25th in the league in pass defense DVOA against the tight end position this season. Enter Travis Kelce, fresh off of roasting the Raiders for 168 yards and two touchdowns. He lines up as the preferred stacking partner with Mahomes for those who want to use the Chiefs in this matchup.
