A Minor Comeback

On Saturday, Texas Rangers left-hander Mike Minor went absolutely crazy against the Seattle Mariners, tossing seven innings while surrendering just one run on three hits and one walk - while striking out a season-high 13.

Minor is now sitting with a 2.88 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 25.0% strikeout rate through five starts this season, numbers that pretty clearly point to fantasy relevance in all formats.

But are these numbers sustainable? And has Minor made any changes that preclude this performance, or is the bottom about to fall out for the oft-injured, unreliable veteran left-hander? Let's take a look:

Raising Expectations

The first thing I usually look at when evaluating a starting pitcher is his peripherals. In this case, the data isn't great. Minor sports a 3.84 FIP, a 4.31 xFIP and a 4.05 SIERA, all considerably higher than his 2.88 ERA. That stems from a very low .204 BABIP, and 81.3% left on base rate and a 11.1% HR/FB rate, all which are considerably below the league averages and Minor's career numbers.

However, that's not necessarily the full story. Minor is doing a fantastic job of limiting hard contact, with a 15.5% soft contact rate and a 33.0% hard contact rate. So while the peripherals say he's more of a high 3.00 ERA type arm, there is some truth to how he is pitching.

xStats likes a lot of what Minor has done so far this year. His opponents' xSlash line is a paltry .196/.254/.341, which lends some validity to the .176 that opponents are actually hitting off him this year.

And the strikeouts, that's a nice bonus from the soft-tossing left-hander. Minor's 25% strikeout rate is the second highest mark of his career, with the only other better mark coming in 2017 when he was exclusively a reliever. Minor has perfected his change-up, which is generating a nice 31.3% O-Swing rate and a 15.9% chase rate, while also only giving up a .378 OPS. Additionally, while his fastball doesn't blow people away with velocity, he does have an outstanding spin rate, which ranks in the 99th percentile in the entire league.

Verdict

For this success to continue, his slider is the pitch to watch. It has a really nice 17.1% swinging strike rate, but he has a lot of trouble locating it. When it's on, like it was against the Mariners, he is unstoppable. When it's not, he's forced to rely on his meh fastball and changeup, which doesn't bode well for full-season value.

Overall, I'm not keen on Minor being a stud, must-start pitcher in 10-teamers for the rest of the season. However, I think in 12-teamers, the high-spin fastball, the changeup and the developing slider could make him an arm worth targeting in the long term.

In the short-term, Minor should be owned just about everywhere. Pitchers sometimes have hot streaks, and a lot of what Minor is doing is backed up by his peripherals, so there's a chance this production continues. I'm not counting on a full-season ERA below 3.00, but I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes the year with a 3.50 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and a 22.0% strikeout rate.

In 12-teamers and beyond, you'll take that every day of the week.

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