Champ or Chump: Brendan McKay

Major League Baseball has nearly a century and a half of games in the book, but we still see new things on a fairly regular basis. Shohei Ohtani's ability to both hit and pitch at an MLB standard is among the most amazing things that this author has ever seen, and Tampa Bay Rays prospect Brendan McKay is trying to match his feats.

McKay was selected with the fourth overall pick in the 2017 First Year Players Draft, so his prospect pedigree is about as good as it gets. Many in the fantasy community were skeptical of Ohtani when he first came stateside, but his earliest adopters profited handsomely from his 2018 season. Now that the Rays have summoned McKay to the big league club, fantasy owners may be wondering what to expect from one of the game's most intriguing prospects.

Keep in mind, our Champ / Chump conclusions are based on whether we think a player will outperform their expectations. For example, a pitcher we view as "Tier 2" can be a Champ if they're seen as a Tier 3 pitcher, or they could be a Chump if they're perceived as a Tier 1 pitcher. All ownership rates are from Yahoo! leagues unless otherwise noted. Let's take a closer look at both McKays, shall we?

Brendan McKay (1B, TB)

3% Owned

Note that while McKay has 1B eligibility, the Rays plan to limit him to DHing this year to reduce his workload and injury risk moving forward. As such, longer term plans should focus on a guy who is only eligible at Utility. McKay went 0-for-4 in his big league debut as a hitter, but regular readers know that we're not going to try to do anything with a sample size of four PAs. Instead, let's take a look at his MiLB history.

McKay had two separate oblique injuries in 2018, preventing him from making his High Minors debut until this season. He slashed a putrid .167/.256/.192 with zero homers for Double-A over 90 PAs, walking at a decent clip (7.8 BB%) but striking out way too often (30 K%). His 19.6 FB% was also way too low to expect much power at all, making it seem as though he would be better-served developing as a more conventional pitching prospect.

McKay's pitching earned a promotion to Triple-A, forcing the hitter version to ascend the ladder without demonstrating any degree of readiness. His offensive statistics actually improved substantially in his 60 PAs at Triple-A (.265/.400/.551 with four homers), but his 27.3 FB% was still on the low side for a guy who is supposed to hit for power. He also continued to K too often (26.4%), though a BB% spike to 16.7% mitigates his strikeout tendencies.

With only 150 total PAs against reasonable competition, we're going to have to rely on scouting reports to evaluate McKay''s immediate fantasy prospects as a hitter. The FanGraphs team rates his hit tool as a below-average 35 with a 40 in Game Power (50 is MLB average), though future grades of 55 in both categories hint at intriguing upside for keeper formats. Furthermore, a 65 in raw power suggests that McKay could be a productive hitter if he manages to make enough contact in 2019.

Baseball Savant gives McKay's hit tool a 55 right now with 50-grade power, making for a more optimistic short-term projection. Their scouting report calls special attention to McKay's "patient, discerning approach with a knack for getting on base," suggesting that he's a better pickup in OBP or Points formats that count walks.

Overall, McKay the hitter is worth adding in deep keeper formats for his long-term potential. The odds are against his mattering in 2019 redraft leagues, but a 65 raw power grade provides some potential for a miracle that a second division team might want to roll the dice on. He was slotted in as Tampa's 8-hole hitter in his debut, a role with little inherent fantasy value. You should pass in 2019 unless it's jackpot or bust for your team anyway.

Verdict: Chump (based on contact issues on the farm)

Brendan McKay (SP, TB)

61% Owned

McKay's big league debut consisted of six scoreless innings and a W, but again the sample is too small to draw reliable conclusions from. While McKay's MiLB resume as a hitter is questionable at best, his pitching performance has been nothing short of sensational. He posted a 1.30 ERA and 1.76 xFIP over 41 2/3 IP for Double-A this season, striking out the world (39.7 K%) while keeping walks to a minimum (5.8 BB%). If you want to get noticed as a pitching prospect in fantasy circles, put up numbers like those.

The 23-year old's ERA actually improved in his 25 IP at Triple-A (1.08), but his 3.78 xFIP and (presumably) fluky .203 BABIP allowed suggest that he wasn't quite as dominant as he was at Double-A. Still, there is nothing wrong with a 3.78 talent level the way the ball is flying out of Triple-A ballparks this season. He also piled up the Ks (28 K%) while minimizing walks (6.5 BB%), one of the best predictors of a pitcher's big league success.

Scouts also love McKay's stuff. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Savant rate his heater at a 55, meaning above average by MLB standards. They differ on McKay's best secondary offering, with FanGraphs loving his curve (55 now, 60 future) while Baseball Savant prefers his cutter (55). FanGraphs sees a 55 cutter in McKay's future while Baseball Savant already gives his curve a 55, so both are probably great weapons moving forward. McKay started throwing a 50-grade change once he joined the Rays organization, which FanGraphs also sees developing into a 55-grade offering.

Plenty of pitching prospects have raw stuff, but McKay can control it. The FanGraphs team gives him 55 command now with 60 in the future, while Baseball Savant gives him a 60 for control and notes that "all of his pitches play up" thanks to control and sequencing. It's rare for a 23-year old to have four big league pitches and command, but that's what we're looking at here.

McKay's next scheduled start is against the Yankees, one of the most difficult matchups possible. The Rays are a strong club too, however, and McKay doesn't project as a guy who needs to be protected from tough opponents. He's an immediate add in all formats no matter where you are in the standings. This is also true if you play in a format that gives him 1B/P eligibility, though the pitching side should be your preference if you need to choose.

Verdict: Champ (based on the potential for an impact pitcher with an excellent supporting cast)

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