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As always, there are a couple of games we can look to target this week including the Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers.
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Falcons @ Saints
Over/Under Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Drew Brees over 295.5 passing yards and Matt Ryan over 287.5 passing yards.
This game has the second-highest total on the board at 51.5 and should be an absolute shootout down in New Orleans. These teams have combined to average 54.2 points per game over their last five games dating back to 2017.
Let's start with why Brees should go over the total. First and foremost, the Saints are at home, and we all know Brees loves to play at home. In his two games at home this season, he has thrown for at least 370 yards. In 2018, he averaged over 321 passing yards per game at home as well. The guy loves some home cooking on the bayou. It also won't hurt that the Falcons have been horrendous against the pass this season. They allowed Jacoby Brissett and Kyler Murray to torch them to the tune of 310 passing yards and 340 passing yards, respectively. They also allowed Deshaun Watson to throw for a whopping 426 yards against them in a Week 5 contest. 426 yards! Brees should have a field day against this defense.
Matt Ryan and 300-yard passing games have been almost automatic in 2019. His team is 1-7, which means he has been trailing late in games and been forced to chuck the ball around to attempt to come back. He has eclipsed the 300-yard mark in every single game this season, except a Week 7 contest vs. the Rams in which he left early with an ankle injury. The Saints have proven they can stop the run in 2019 as they only allow running backs to rush for 61.5 yards per game, which is tops in the league. It's no secret the Falcons will struggle to move the ball if they attempt to run on this defense. Their pass d is a little more suspect, however. They have allowed big performances to quarterbacks on a couple of occasions this season, including a 406 passing yard performance to Russell Wilson in Week 3. Ryan has also averaged 315 passing yards per game in his last four games against the Saints. Add in the fact that New Orleans is favored by 13 points, and you have another situation where Ryan will be forced to throw the ball a ton in order to attempt to mount a comeback.
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Panthers @ Packers
Fantasy Challenge Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, and Christian McCaffrey over 63.5 fantasy points.
This game has a lower total than I would have expected at 47, but this could be due to the dud performance the Packers put up at the Chargers last week or possibly due to the cold weather expected in Green Bay on Sunday. Green Bay returns home and I expect a very motivated team to perform well vs. the Panthers. Both of these teams are capable of putting up big numbers and that is exactly what should happen.
Aaron Jones has finally started to gain traction as the top back in Green Bay. He has had some monster games so far this season, putting up over 40 fantasy points by himself in two different contests. To be fair, he has also had some clunkers against the likes of Chicago, Detroit, and last week, vs the Chargers. He gets a relatively favorable matchup vs. the Panthers this week who are allowing running backs to rush for 105.5 yards per game and have allowed the most rushing touchdowns to backs in the league with 11. In terms of fantasy points allowed, the Panthers also rank poorly as they are the fifth-worst in this department, allowing 23.8 points per game.
The Panthers also allow wide receivers to earn 180 receiving yards per game, so Adams is definitely in play this week. He had a rough performance last week, but that could easily be attributed to rust coming back from the turf toe injury that kept him out for four games. He has averaged over nine targets per game when he has played and should be heavily involved this week as well. The Panthers have allowed 22.9 fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season, which also ranks in the bottom half of the league.
Lastly, we have Christian McCaffrey, who probably does not need a write-up with the way he has performed this season but we will do one anyway. The Packers rank third-worst in terms of total rushing yards allowed to running backs with 1,036. This equates to them allowing 115.1 yards per game, which ranks fourth-worst in the league. McCaffrey is currently averaging over 110 rushing yards per game, so this matchup is perfect for him to keep pace with his averages. The Packers have also allowed running backs to catch 53 passes, which ranks fifth-worst in the league. It's no secret that McCaffrey is a big-time threat to catch passes out of the backfield as he has caught 42 balls so far this season, which averages out to 5.25 per game. Finally, the Packers rank sixth-worst in terms of fantasy points per game allowed to running backs with 22.9.
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