RADIO
Hey there RotoBallers! Week 12 saw the Browns offense finally get going by dropping 41 points on the Dolphins. The Buccaneers cooled off the Atlanta defense with 35 points while the Saints and Panthers needed almost all 60 minutes to decide their exciting 34-31 contest. In the late afternoon games, the Titans and Ryan Tannehill went off for 42 points against a fading Jacksonville defense. While there are no byes, we lose the Cowboys, Lions, Bears, Bills, Saints, and Falcons to Thanksgiving football and Russell Wilson to the Monday night game, which pares down the player pool a bit. The Week 13 main slate has just one game with an over/under above 50 points, with the Raiders/Chiefs game set at 51.5 points. The Buccaneers/Jaguars game comes in second at 48.5 points.
The goal of this weekly column will be to locate some of the best DFS stacks each week. Stacking, or pairing a quarterback with one of his pass-catchers, is a great way to maximize the number of points scored. This method is generally viewed as a strategy in tournaments, but I also have no problem using safe, high-floor stacks in cash games, as well.
The top Week 13 DFS stacks will be listed below, loosely sorted by my preference. This article will center on the main slate (1:00 PM and 4:00 PM Sunday) games across both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each stack will reference two pass-catchers along with their quarterback. The pass-catchers will be listed in preferential order but sometimes a three-man stack is in play as full-game stacks led to several wins in the Milly Maker in 2018. If you feel strongly about how an offense will perform in a given week then consider loading up on several offensive players from that offense. All references to team defense DVOA come from Football Outsiders while cornerback and wide receiver matchups and grade references come from Pro Football Focus.
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Week 13 DFS Tournament Stacks
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders
QB Patrick Mahomes ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)
WR Tyreek Hill ($8,900 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
TE Travis Kelce ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
Mahomes has had a few weeks to acclimate himself after missing a few contests with a knee injury. This game checks in as the only contest on the slate with an over/under higher than 50 points. That assures that Mahomes will be a popular play, and with good reason as he takes aim at the division-rival Raiders. Oakland's pass defense ranks 30th in the league in DVOA and coughed up 443 yards and four touchdowns to Mahomes when these two met back in Week 2.
Hill appears to be fine after leaving his Week 11 contest early with a hamstring strain. He had the bye week to rest up and practiced in full on Wednesday, an excellent sign for his Week 13 availability. Hill will see primary coverage from Trayvon Mullen on Sunday in what shapes up as a huge mismatch. Mullen is allowing 0.41 fantasy points per route covered this season, a number that places him in the top-10 on in the league. Hill should be able to shred Mullen this weekend.
Travis Kelce rounds out a three-man stack as he gets ready to take on a Raiders squad that he has routinely tormented over his career. Over his past four matchups against Oakland, Kelce is averaging 7.5 catches for 1o2.8 yards with three total touchdowns. This is a smash spot for the star tight end.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
QB Jameis Winston ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
WR Mike Evans ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
WR Chris Godwin ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
Winston is coming off a strong Week 12 performance against the Falcons and is in a good spot this weekend as he will face a Jaguars Defense that is in late-season fade mode for the second consecutive season. While he's no Lamar Jackson, Winston has added some rushing upside to his game this season, posting at least 23 rushing yards in four of his past five contests. The Jaguars have been much better against the pass this season but they still aren't a defense to avoid for fantasy purposes.
The Evans-Godwin show continues. In the latest update, Godwin topped Evans in Week 12 with 184 yards and two scores. Evans matched Godwin with eight targets but Godwin got the scores. That's #football for you. While Godwin will mostly tangle with the Jags' top-rated corner in D.J. Hayden (72.3 grade at PFF), Evans draws a much more enticing matchup as he will see primary coverage from Tre Herndon. Herndon has earned just a 46.1 grade for his play this season.
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants
QB Aaron Rodgers ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
WR Davante Adams ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
RB Jamaal Williams ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
It has been a rough three-game stretch for Rodgers, who has thrown for just 498 yards and two touchdowns total over that span. Of course, a Week 12 game against a stifling San Francisco defense didn't help matters much. Despite the recent slow stretch, a Week 13 matchup against a punchless Giants pass defense should cure what has ailed the Green Bay offense of late. The Giants rank 27th in the league in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. Meanwhile, their 14th-ranked run defense (DVOA) should funnel more opportunities onto Rodgers' plate on Sunday.
Davante Adams is in a smash spot and an argument could be made for him being the No. 1 receiver on the entire slate. While he moves around the formation a good bit, Adams will see primary coverage from Janoris Jenkins and DeAndre Baker. Both of the aforementioned corners are allowing at least 0.41 fantasy points per route covered this season. As the only trustworthy option in the Green Bay passing attack, look for Adams to be force-fed targets in this pristine matchup on Sunday.
As mentioned above, the Green Bay passing attack isn't very trustworthy outside of Davante Adams. I would stick with a two-man stack but if you want to get creative, take a look a Jamaal Williams. While Aaron Jones gets most of the attention, Williams has actually been more active in the passing attack for the Packers. Williams has seen at least six targets in two of his past three games while Jones has five total targets over that span. Williams also has a touchdown catch in four of his past six contests and five total on the season.
Under-Owned Week 13 DFS Stack
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
QB Jared Goff ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
WR Cooper Kupp ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
WR Brandin Cooks ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
After several weeks of disappointing play, it is unlikely that many fantasy gamers will be rushing out to play Goff and the struggling Rams offense this weekend. That being said, a Week 13 showdown against the Cardinals should be all the Rams need to get back to their high-scoring ways. While Goff traditionally has struggled on the road, he should be able to pick apart a non-existent Arizona pass defense. To be clear, this is a GPP-only recommendation but it's one that could pay off handsomely if Goff shows his early-season form.
Arizona can't really cover anyone on defense, making all three of Kupp, Cooks, and Robert Woods solid plays. Of the three projected starting Arizona cornerbacks, none has a grade higher than a 63.9 grade from PFF. As Goff's No. 1 target, Kupp is an easy play but it becomes less clear when deciding between Woods and Cooks. In tournaments, I'd lean Cooks, who has the elite speed to blow up at any time. A four-man stack including Woods is also in play as Arizona is that bad against the pass.
Thanks for reading, go win some money this weekend!
