RADIO
Hey there RotoBallers! For those fortunate enough to be in the playoffs in season-long formats, good luck this week! For those who missed the playoffs, DFS contests can be an excellent way to stay involved as the NFL regular season winds down. The Week 14 main slate projects to be a low-scoring one. The Patriots/Chiefs game has the highest over/under, set at 49.0 points. The Carolina/Atlanta and Tampa Bay/Indianapolis games both come in with the second-highest over/under, set at 47.0 points.
The goal of this weekly column will be to locate some of the best DFS stacks each week. Stacking, or pairing a quarterback with one of his pass-catchers, is a great way to maximize the number of points scored. This method is generally viewed as a strategy in tournaments, but I also have no problem using safe, high-floor stacks in cash games, as well.
The top Week 14 DFS stacks will be listed below, loosely sorted by my preference. This article will center on the main slate (1:00 PM and 4:00 PM Sunday) games across both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each stack will reference two pass-catchers along with their quarterback. The pass-catchers will be listed in preferential order but sometimes a three-man stack is in play as full-game stacks led to several wins in the Milly Maker in 2018. If you feel strongly about how an offense will perform in a given week then consider loading up on several offensive players from that offense. All references to team defense DVOA come from Football Outsiders while cornerback and wide receiver matchups and grade references come from Pro Football Focus.
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Week 14 DFS Tournament Stacks
Houston Texans vs. Denver Broncos
- QB Deshaun Watson ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
- WR Will Fuller ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)
- WR DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
Deshaun Watson has bounced back from a slow outing against the Ravens in Week 11, having accounted for six touchdowns (five passing, one receiving) in his past two games. The Broncos are decent against the run (10th in DVOA) and a bit below average against the pass (17th in DVOA), which should push more work onto Watson's plate. The only concern here is whether the Broncos can keep up with Houston on the scoreboard but the Texans have a healthy 25.5-point implied total and Watson will be the driving force behind the majority of their scoring drives. A brutal Houston pass defense should assist Denver in the scoring department.
While Hopkins is the alpha in Houston, I prefer Will Fuller in DFS tournaments this week. Hopkins proved last week against the Patriots that he's matchup-proof but he still needed a touchdown pass to finish with a productive fantasy outing. Hopkins will run most of his routes against top Denver corner Chris Harris Jr. while Fuller will face off against a combination of slot corner Will Parks and outside man Isaac Yiadom. Parks has a 60.7 grade at Pro Football Focus while Yiadom has a dismal 47.4 grade and just 4.52 wheels. Look for the speedy Fuller to get behind the Denver secondary for at least one long gain on Sunday.
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
- QB Baker Mayfield ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
- WR Jarvis Landry ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
- WR Odell Beckham Jr. ($6,300 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
This is all subject to change based on how Mayfield's thumb injury progresses throughout the week. For now, it looks like he will be able to play through a bruised thumb sustained in Week 13. In what has been a brutal schedule for a fantasy quarterback, Mayfield has struggled through most of the season but he has come up big in his few plus matchups. The Bengals represent one of his best matchups all year as they rank 31st in pass defense DVOA and are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the position. The Browns have a solid 24.50-point implied team total as home favorites on Sunday. If there was one time to play Mayfield in DFS all season, this just might be it.
Jarvis Landry has officially overtaken Odell Beckham Jr. He has been outproducing his more well-regarded teammate for much of the season and he is now more expensive on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Landry needs to be given priority when setting lineups due to the fact he is simply producing better numbers than Beckham no matter how you slice it. While Landry is playing better, Beckham does have one advantage for this weekend. Landry will tangle with solid slot corner Darqueze Dennard while Beckham will mostly see B.W. Webb. Webb is having a rough season, grading out at 58.1 at PFF and allowing 0.38 fantasy points per route covered.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
- QB Kirk Cousins ($6,700 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
- WR Stefon Diggs ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
- RB Dalvin Cook ($9,500 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)
The run-heavy Vikings offense is a GPP-only recommendation here as there's a good chance they jump out to a big lead over the Lions and spend the rest of the afternoon running out the clock. That being said, Minnesota's pass defense has not been able to slow many offenses this season, giving Detroit a bit of hope if they have designs on keeping this game close. Cousins hasn't enjoyed great volume this season but he has been very efficient on his attempts, throwing 23 touchdowns on just 358 pass attempts. He will take on a Detroit pass defense that ranks just 26th in DVOA this season.
Diggs hasn't been very consistent this season but he still ranks among the league leaders his team's share in air yards and has the potential to go off any week. That sounds like a perfect tournament WR if you ask me. Diggs will mostly see Darius Slay, who he shredded for seven catches and 142 yards back in Week 7.
While Dalvin Cook is expensive and playing through pain, he remains a solid tournament option if you choose to go with a three-man stack. Cook is essentially Minnesota's No. 2 receiver with Adam Thielen sidelined. The star running back is averaging just under five targets and 4.0 receptions per game this season. Oh, by the way, he should be able to rack up the rushing yardage on Friday against a Detroit run defense ranked 20th in DVOA.
Under-Owned Week 14 DFS Stack
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
- QB Kyle Allen ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
- RB Christian McCaffrey ($10,300 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel)
- WR D.J. Moore ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
After 10 NFL games, it is safe to say that Kyle Allen is not the long-term answer in Carolina. Fortunately for DFS, all that matters is this week's matchup. Allen will square off against Atlanta for the second time in four weeks. Allen was not great in the previous matchup, throwing for 325 yards, zero touchdowns, and four picks. Look for him to bounce back in these two teams' second tilt of the season. Atlanta can't stop anyone through the air, ranking 27th in pass defense DVOA and allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position.
Not much really needs to be said about McCaffrey here, the only concern is whether his high price is too prohibitive to fit into lineups. Fortunately, his quarterback isn't all that expensive on DraftKings, so that should help. McCaffrey is Carolina's top threat in the passing game and also one of the top rushers in the NFL. The Falcons also allowed McCaffrey to rack up 11 catches for 121 yards in Week 11.
D.J. Moore has ascended to borderline WR1 status in fantasy leagues after a strong stretch of five games where he has averaged 7.2 catches for 103.4 yards with three touchdowns. Moore will enjoy a tasty matchup as he should see primary coverage from Isaiah Oliver. Oliver has a 57.2 PFF grade and is allowing 0.41 fantasy points per route covered.
Thanks for reading, go win some money this weekend RotoBallers!
