ADP Reflections: American League Starting Pitchers

The draft season is in full swing. The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI) is wrapping up on the NFBC site, and more and more draft data is filtering through to the masses. We’re now at the point where draft data is shaping draft strategies as people look for value against ADP.

There are lots of great articles on RotoBaller already comparing similar players with significantly different ADP and where value can be found. The sample of ADP available from these early NFBC drafts has given us a good basis to ascertain if certain players are being drafted too high considering their projections and expectations. The same can be said if they’re being unloved and drafted later than their projections suggest they should be.

In some cases, a player's projection may seem a bit generous or a bit stingy which is driving a player’s ADP. Two such pitchers plying their trade in the American League are Andrew Heaney and Jordan Montgomery.

Andrew Heaney, Los Angeles Angels

Andrew Heaney’s current ADP is 196 and he’s being drafted ~33^rd among American League pitchers on NFBC. Not exactly lofty expectations at that price, but he’s still someone who isn’t likely to return value at his current cost.

His 2020 projections are;

From his projections and ADP, Heaney isn't being tabbed as someone who will break into the top-10 of starting pitchers. If he does manage to match his projections, it will actually be his best season in the Majors. The 170 IP will be only the second time he’d have reached that mark across all levels in a single year since 2015 (he threw 180 innings in 2018). Health has been a major problem for Heaney.

Since the start of the 2016 season, Heaney has hit the IL five times (twice being on the 60-day IL). He required Tommy John Surgery (TJS) in 2016 missing the majority of that year plus nearly all of 2017. Two of his three IL stints since then were due to elbow inflammation as well so Heaney doesn’t quite seem to be over his injury troubles.

When healthy, Heaney has been an average Major League starter and his 4.01 ERA projection has only been bettered by the 3.49 ERA he achieved in 2015, albeit that was across 105.2 IP. This projection is the best-case scenario and it wouldn’t be at all a stretch to suggest Heaney doesn’t reach the 150 IP mark.

His Statcast profile for the last two years doesn’t suggest Heaney will make a jump forward this year either.

There’s no denying his fastball spin rate is exceptional, ranking no lower than the 93^rd percentile in the last two years. His K% is also high and enticing. But then there’s the hard-hit rate which is in the bottom third of qualified pitchers in the last two years, along with below-average xwOBA and xSLG. Heaney’s K% jumped nearly 5% last year (24.0% K% in 2018 to 28.9% K% in 2019) without any alterations in his velocity or arsenal too so even those gains might not be sustainable.

Verdict: Overvalued

Heaney is certainly worthy of rostering in any format. In mixed leagues, his profile and history are more of someone you take late and hope he shows significant upside in his ability to stay healthy with an improvement in his results. An ADP inside the top-200, however, drives any value out of his current price though and you are paying for something seriously unforeseen to happen.

In AL-only leagues, Heaney will need to be rostered, but again he’s not someone you can really rely on as an SP3, which is where he is going as the 33^rd overall AL pitcher drafted. If you end up taking two starting pitchers with your first to picks, Heaney wouldn’t be the worst addition as the next arm in your rotation. That will leave you very weak in the hitting stats however and you’ll still need a healthy Heaney to benefit from that strategy.

Jordan Montgomery, New York Yankees

This is a name I wasn’t expecting to throw at you when Spring began. Jordan Montgomery has been undrafted in 100 out of 423 NFBC leagues leaving him with an overall ADP of 504 and is as close to being free in drafts as you will find. He’s the 170^th pitcher being taken in drafts going behind the likes of Homer Bailey, Tyler Mahle, and Jordan Lyles.

Just like last year, the Yankees have been hit with injuries before the season starts with Luis Severino needing to undergo TJS and James Paxton out until May at the earliest. That leaves at least one spot open in the rotation and that’s if Gerrit Cole, Masahiro Tanaka, and J.A Happ stay healthy until Paxton returns. Montgomery is the clear front runner to be the fourth starter in the Yankees rotation until Paxton’s return and with good enough performances, he should stick there throughout the year.

Montgomery is no stranger to injury himself having undergone TJS in 2018 limiting him to just 35 IP the last two years. Pre-TJS, Montgomery emerged as a legitimate MLB starter in 2017, which wasn’t a surprise given his minor league career prior to that. Below are Montgomery’s Minor and Major league career numbers to date.

The projections on Montgomery were based on him not having a rotation spot for the season so he shouldn’t be limited to the 64 IP projection he currently has. If we look at his career Major League numbers and say his 2020 projection is the same, these are two comparable AL pitchers with their 2020 projections.

Hyun-Jin Ryu’s ADP on NFBC is 134 and Mike Minor’s is 176. Ryu is the 23^rd AL pitcher being taken in drafts whilst Minor is 31^st among AL pitchers. Both are markedly higher than Montgomery’s numbers largely due to Montgomery not having a role until recently nor any recency bias due to the TJS. That’s where his value can come into play and even if he manages just 150 IP and his ERA does reach 4.00, he’s on a team where plenty of wins should be attainable which gives him a nice floor.

Verdict: Undervalued

Like Heaney, Montgomery comes with risk but unlike the former, his cost means the risk is tiny. Even in AL-only leagues, Montgomery won’t cost more than a pick in the last couple of rounds. His upside is that of an SP4 in such leagues. Even in mixed leagues, Montgomery can be taken with one of the last picks in your draft and if he struggles post-TJS, you can dump him and pick up a replacement. A pitcher with no downside but plenty of upside is exactly what you want as late in the draft as Montgomery is going.

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