RADIO
As we head into the 2020 season, it should be no surprise that the deepest position in fantasy baseball remains the outfield. If you are in shallow leagues, you need not worry about selecting an outfielder with question marks regarding playing time. But, if you are in a deep mixed league, an AL-only league, or an NL-only league, there is a good chance that at least one outfielder on your team, whether in your starting lineup or on your bench, will have some risk associated with playing time.
Today we look at some undervalued players in the outfield who you should still target in drafts despite playing time concerns. All four outfielders discussed are young players with high upside who have not yet carved out a full-time role on their respective teams.
Don't sleep on these players despite their unclear playing-time situations. None of these players will be part-time players for long.
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Garrett Hampson (2B/OF, COL) – 175 ADP
Colorado Rockies infielder/outfielder Garrett Hampson had a disappointing 2019 campaign. In 299 at-bats, he produced just a .247-8-27-40-15 line. Despite his struggles, the 25-year old appeared to figure things out late in the season after a stint in Triple-A. In September, Hampson hit .318 with five home runs and nine steals in just 88 at-bats.
Hampson’s history and metrics both suggest that his hot September was no fluke. In over 1,300 career minor league at-bats, Hampson hit for a career minor league average of .311. Additionally, Hampson is in the 99th percentile in MLB elite speed. Over the course of a full season, 30 stolen bases is a safe floor to expect for fantasy owners. With regard to Hampson’s power metrics, Hampson posted an exit velocity of 89.2 mph on FB/LD and a mere 3.7% barrel rate in 2019. Despite this modest power potential, a full season as a starter could still generate 10-15 HR in Coors Field for Hampson.
In 2019, Hampson saw time at second base, shortstop, left field and center field. It has already been reported that Hampson will likely break camp as the Rockies’ utility man in 2020. This position eligibility makes him an even more valuable fantasy commodity. Of course, given the depth of the Rockies’ roster, the big question is whether Hampson will generate enough at-bats to reach his fantasy potential. As it stands right now, Trevor Story, Ryan McMahon, Charlie Blackmon, and David Dahl are all blocking Hampson from a regular starting position.
Despite being blocked from a full-time role, given Hampson’s September and elite speed, Rockies manager Bud Black will find ways to get Hampson’s bat into the lineup. In addition, an injury to Story, Dickerson, Dahl, and/or McMahon would immediately throw Hampson into a starting role. Finally, the Rockies are on the verge of a rebuild, given the off-season chatter regarding dealing Nolan Arenado. Should the Rockies trade any of their current expensive starters, including Arenado or Blackmon, Hampson would likely benefit and move into a starting role somewhere on the diamond.
Should Hampson get a full-time role with the Rockies, he would easily outperform his current ADP. A safe floor for Hampson, in a full-time role, would be 10 HR, around 30 steals, with a batting average not far below .300. Accordingly, the returns on drafting Hampson in the middle-to-late rounds could be monumental for opportunistic owners, particularly given the current landscape where steals are a rare commodity.
Kyle Tucker (OF, HOU) – 147 ADP
Over a full season as a starting outfielder, Houston Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker conservatively projects as a hitter with a floor of 20-20. Despite the lofty talent, Tucker faces uncertainty in terms of playing time heading into 2020. The Astros already have Michael Brantley in left field, George Springer in center field, and Yordan Alvarez slated to start at designated hitter. As a result, that leaves right field where Tucker will likely split time with Josh Reddick.
In 2019, Tucker hit 34 homers with 30 steals in 536 plate appearances at Triple-A. Once he was called up to Houston in September, Tucker batted .269 with four home runs and 11 RBI in 67 at-bats. Tucker, who has been one of the Astros' top prospects for the last few years, has a much higher ceiling than Reddick. By way of metrics, Tucker boasts an MLB career launch angle of 15.9 degrees, an MLB career overall exit velocity just under 92 mph and an MLB career hard-hit rate of 46.9%. That said, despite the talent and pedigree, Tucker’s inconsistency over the course of four brief MLB stints since 2018 has delayed his ascending into a regular outfield starting job.
Despite the likelihood of a platoon role with Reddick, at least to begin the season, Steamer still projects Tucker to get 396 at-bats and bat .247 with 21 HR, 62 RBI, and 15 SB. At his ADP of 147, this is a solid return on investment. If, however, Tucker can quickly wrestle the job away from Reddick permanently, he could far exceed his current ADP and produce 30 HR and more than 20 SB in a very potent lineup. Such production would be in line with comparatives produced by players taken around an ADP of, roughly, 39 per RotoBaller's Expected Draft Values.
Accordingly, although Tucker's cost is higher than other platoon outfielders discussed in this article, the return value on Tucker can potentially be massive. Additionally, even if Tucker remains relegated to a full-time split with Reddick for the entire season as a worst-case scenario, his current ADP will still likely be justified by his year-end numbers as projected by Steamer. He should certainly be rostered early in drafts in all mixed and AL-only leagues.
Trent Grisham (OF, SD) – 336 ADP
In 2019, San Diego Padres outfielder Trent Grisham had a somewhat disappointing MLB debut. He batted only .231 with six home runs, 24 RBI and one steal in 183 plate appearances with the Milwaukee Brewers. However, before being called up by the Brewers late in the season, Grisham performed well over two minor league levels in 2019. In 236 Double-A at-bats, Grisham slashed .254/.371/.504 with 13 HR and, subsequently, in 158 Triple-A at-bats, Grisham slashed .381/.471/.776 with another 13 HR. His Double-A and Triple-A performances in 2019 restored some of the shine that Grisham had lost since being selected in the first round by the Brewers in 2015.
Heading into 2020, Grisham is now with the San Diego Padres thanks to an off-season trade that sent Luis Urias and Eric Lauer to the Brewers. Grisham finds himself, potentially, in a platoon role with Franchy Cordero and/or Wil Myers. That said, early rumblings out of the Padres spring camp indicate Grisham may be in line for the bulk of the playing time in center field. Additionally, the Myers trade rumors have not died down, despite spring training having had started weeks ago. With a foreseeable line to a full-time role in close proximity, either through winning the center field job outright, or a Myers trade, Grisham is a very tantalizing option at his current ADP of 336.
Grisham possesses a solid power and speed tool, exemplified by his 31 HR over three levels last season, and an MLB sprint speed which is in the top 93rd percentile. This makes Grisham a legitimate 20-15 threat when (not if) he lands a full-time role as the Padres starting center fielder. In addition, depending upon where the Padres bat Grisham in the lineup, those steal projections could rise. This spring, the Padres have been batting him leadoff. Additionally, in 30 of his 36 starts with the Brewers in 2019, Grisham hit leadoff. This is due, in part, to his upper-tier sprint speed, as well as his solid plate discipline, evidenced by a very low 2019 22% O-Swing rate and a 10.9% walk rate. As a regular leadoff hitter for San Diego, this would not only bolster Grisham’s steal totals but also bolster his run potential in that potent Padres lineup.
Grisham is certainly an outfielder that should be rostered in all deep mixed and NL-only formats. He should easily outperform his current ADP as an excellent value pick to round out outfields.
Dominic Smith (1B/OF, NYM) – 565 ADP
Of the outfielders discussed in this article, New York Mets first baseman/outfielder Dominic Smith is the riskiest to roster. Due to the depth of the New York Mets roster, Smith has no place for consistent playing time and is, therefore, off of radars in most mixed leagues as we head into 2020.
In 2019, in limited action due to injury, a brief stint at Triple-A, and a platoon role at the MLB level, Smith batted .282 with 11 HR and 25 RBI in 177 at-bats. Given his success in 2019, and pedigree as a 2013 first-round pick, the presumption was that the Mets were going to trade Smith in the off-season for additional pitching to replace the departed Zack Wheeler. Of course, as is typical with the Mets, they don’t usually make rational decisions and, as we head in 2020, Smith is somehow still with the team.
Looking at Smith’s metrics from 2019, his power was supported by a 14.8-degree launch angle and an exit velocity on FB/LD of 92 mph, slightly below that of Anthony Rizzo and Jeff McNeil. In a full season of at-bats, Smith would likely produce 20-25 HR, at least 65 RBI and an average around .260. While these aren’t eye-popping numbers, at an ADP of 565, the value of taking Smith with the last pick in deep mixed leagues, or late pick NL-Only leagues, would generate tremendous value should he land a full-time role.
Much like Hampson discussed above, the question is whether Smith will get enough playing time to achieve this fantasy potential. Smith enters 2020 on the short end of a timeshare in left field with Yoenis Cespedes and J.D. Davis. He is also the backup to Peter Alonso at first base. When not starting, Smith will be relegated to the bench awaiting pinch-hitting opportunities. For Smith, the road to playing time must necessarily be through a trade to a team in need of a first baseman or an injury to a Mets’ regular.
A trade of Smith at some point in 2020 is not only possible, but it is also likely. Several teams right now could use Smith as their starting first baseman. The Mets currently have Peter Alonso at first base and have also signed Matt Adams to a minor league contract. The Adams signing makes Smith expendable if Alonso gets injured. In addition, the Mets have Cespedes, Brandon Nimmo, Jake Marisnick and Michael Conforto in the outfield. Should the Mets find themselves in a pennant race later in the season, Smith becomes their most valuable and likely trade chip to address any roster deficiencies.
In addition, and sadly, an injury to a Mets regular in 2020 is also not only possible, but it is also likely. Given their recent injury histories, the chances of Cespedes or Robinson Cano making it through 2020 unscathed are slim. In the event of a Cespedes injury, Smith would see more playing time in left field. Should Cano go down, McNeil would shift over to second base, Davis would take third base, and Smith would, again, get more playing time in left field.
If Smith gets the at-bats this season, whether as a starting first baseman on another team or due to an injury to a starting Mets regular, he will far exceed his 565 ADP. As such, he worth a last roster spot gamble in deep mixed leagues. Patience, however, will be a virtue to those owners willing to spend an extremely late draft pick or waiver claim on Smith, since it will take time for Smith to ascend into a full-time role.
