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We have reached the month of March, and that means we are very close to the start of the MLB season. Reaching March also means Fantasy Baseball draft season is ramping up. A major part of every fantasy draft is finding value and sleepers as the draft goes on to fill out a team. In this article, I will beak down a sleeper who could have a huge season at a very nice draft price.
Sam Hilliard is a 26-year-old outfielder for the Colorado Rockies. It has been well discussed that the Rockies have trouble letting their talented prospects play every day and that has been no different from Hilliard. He has been in the Rockies farm system since 2015 and had his first cup of coffee with the Big Club last season, where he played in 27 games.
When Hilliard was called up last season, fantasy owners raced to the waiver wire to add him and he did not disappoint. He brings a nice power and speed combo to the team and will look to do so over the full 2020 season. Since the Rockies have been known to misuse their prospects, drafters may be a bit bullish on Hilliard which shows as he has an NFBC online ADP of 253, which could turn into great value this season.
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The Case for Hilliard
Hilliard was drafted by the Rockies in 2015 and played 60 games in rookie ball that year. In 2016 he started playing full seasons in the Rockies system and made his way from Low A to AA by the end of 2018. During those three years, he showcased some power, a decent batting average and a lot of speed. Hilliard also averaged 30 stolen bases over those three seasons. In 2019, he started the season in hitter-friendly AAA and was amazing with a stat line of .262-35-109-101-22. That great start to the season earned him the call-up to the Rockies for 27 games to end the season where he put together a .273-7-13-13-2 stat line in some inconsistent playing time.
| G-AVG-HR-R-RBI-SB | |
| AVG 2016-18 | 127-.278-12-75-72-30 |
| 2019 | 153-.263-42-122-114-24 |
The 2019 season was a monster season for Hilliard and demolished his average seasons from 2016-18. The solid performance over his first three full minor league seasons and then his massive 2019 campaign have led to some chatter for Hilliard as an everyday outfielder for 2020. The question that needs to be asked is, “was the 2019 season legit?”
The answer is an emphatic, YES. In 2019 with the Rockies, Hilliard had an ISO of .377, a wRC+ of 138 and a .356 OBP. The power is justified thanks to a 13% barrel rate, 42.6% hard-hit rate and a really nice .420 xWOBAcon. The OBP is also aided by a really nice walk rate of 10.3%. Hilliard’s overall hitting profile is what a drafter wants to see for a power and speed target.
Some may want to point to the fact he flourished in AAA and then Colorado, two places with the bouncy ball. Fair enough, but his overall profile has improved the last three levels of baseball he has played.
| HH% | Pull % | BB% | |
| 2018(AA) | 29.30% | 36.10% | 8.50% |
| 2019 (AAA) | 38% | 40.10% | 9.70% |
| 2019 (MLB) | 42.60% | 51.90% | 10.30% |
Hilliard’s hard-hit rates and pull percentages have all increased, which leads to much more power. His plate discipline has also improved, which can lead to more chances to steal bases and score runs.
2020 Outlook
Hilliard will enter the 2020 season looking to play his first full season with the Rockies. He is currently projected to hit seventh and platoon with Ian Desmond. The platoon would be the typical “Rockie’s Way” of handling prospects. They paid Desmond a lot of money and will want to get him playing time, so the platoon can not be ignored. If Hilliard is being productive, it will be hard to take him out of the lineup and the Rockies may have to platoon Desmond at another outfield spot or even at first base with Daniel Murphy.
When looking at the ATC projections there is a lot to like. He is projected for 91 games with a stat line of .243-14-46-45-9. That seems like the low end of projections and also is only assuming 91 games. If Hilliard can play 140 games, then we can project 20+ home runs and close to 20 stolen bases. That still seems low and Hilliard should be drafted with this stat line as a major floor with a much better ceiling. A potential Tommy Pham stat line is not out of the realm of possibilities if given proper playing time. He is being drafted behind other young outfielders like Austin Hays and Dylan Carlson. Hilliard has a job, will be playing in Coors Field and has a ceiling that justifies a pick late in drafts.
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