RADIO
The strikeout is on the rise. Even more so than home runs, nothing has taken off in this age of baseball quite like the strikeout. It used to be that no one this century reached 300 Ks in a season. Now, five players have in the past five seasons alone, including two in 2019.
Averaging a strikeout per inning used to be a great number to reach for relievers and an unparalleled one for starters. Now, it's hardly usable for the former and quite within reach for the latter.
With this being the case, fantasy teams need a ton of strikeouts to compete in the category, but it isn't always worth paying up for the big names. There are some late-round sleepers and fliers who can be found who should provide nice strikeout numbers without breaking the bank.
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Giovanny Gallegos - Cardinals (ADP 208)
Gallegos may not close all year for St. Louis. With the depth available in that bullpen and the potential return of Jordan Hicks, it would actually be a surprise if Gallegos did close for the entire season. Nevertheless, Gallegos is a big-time strikeout pitcher in whatever role he settles.
Last season, he struck out a third of all batters he faced, along with an otherworldly 5.8 K/BB rate. Both figures put him among the top 16 in all of baseball of anyone who threw at least 70 innings. His K/BB rate was the seventh-best among relievers. This performance came out of nowhere, but even in his 20 appearances with the Yankees in 2017-18, when he couldn't find a foothold in the bullpen, he still averaged more than a strikeout per inning.
Along with the Ks, Gallegos offers supreme rate stats and the potential for many saves. He compares favorably to the likes of Emilio Pagan and Seth Lugo but is in line to be his team's closer from day one.
Josh Hader and Liam Hendriks seem like no-brainers as top 30 pitchers. But why pay for Hendriks when a perfect facsimile will be available 100 spots later in Gallegos? It all makes for Gallegos being one of the best values among any relief pitcher this season, and especially so for those owners hunting strikeouts late in the draft.
Anthony DeSclafani - Reds (ADP 254)
Entering his sixth major league season, the Cincinnati hurler has never quite put it all together, which is why we find him at his current ADP. As he flies under the radar even of those scouring for post-hype sleepers, this ADP works to our advantage.
DeSclafani has become a high-floor producer in terms of rate stats and wins. He should give owners 7-10 wins (maybe more if the Reds become contenders), an ERA around 4.00, and 1.20 WHIP; nothing to write home about. But he also offers strikeouts, and in that department, he keeps getting better.
DeSclafani missed all of 2017 with a UCL sprain. In the other four seasons -- outside of his rookie showing with Miami -- his K% went from 19.2 to 20.7 to 22.3 before culminating last year at 24.0. DeSclafani was one of just 26 qualified starters to reach that threshold in '19, just edging out Zack Wheeler.
DeSclafani needs to pitch deeper into games to become a quality fantasy asset, but his strikeout numbers keep him in the discussion, even from outside the top 250. DeSclafani's batted ball profile aligns closely with Jose Berrios and Zack Greinke. His production reminds me of a lower volume Wheeler. Are these other guys really worth taking 125 spots or more before DeSclafani just because they offer more volume?
Red Sox relievers
Matt Barnes is not the Red Sox closer. Darwinzon Hernandez is someone most people have never heard of. Neither player is likely to be drafted in standard leagues and they are both being taken outside the top 500 players. And yet, if your league gobbles up all closers and potential closers with required RP slots, there are worse places to turn than Barnes and Hernandez.
Barnes is obviously the superior option as he has the track record and the trust of the team. As a pair, though, this duo struck out 167 batters in 94.2 innings in 2019. They both limit home runs and performed better than their outcomes according to FIP versus ERA. If they can each cut down on walks allowed, this could be a fearsome twosome ahead of Brandon Workman in the late innings. (Workman is currently being drafted among the top 60 pitchers, and rightly so considering his own elite K numbers and hold on the closer job.)
Interestingly, the closest comps in terms of batted-ball profile to Hernandez are indeed Barnes and Workman (along with fellow AL East bullpen maestro Aroldis Chapman). Baseball Savant struggled to find any great comp for Hernandez though, considering he allowed zero barrels the entire season. It will be fascinating to see what he can do in year two.
Conclusion
From Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander at the top to players outside the top 200, strikeouts will be plentiful this season. Every fantasy owner will find oodles of strikeouts on their roster almost by default. The best owners, though, will be able to seek out K production very late in drafts, allowing them to spend early picks elsewhere to round out a better roster overall.
