The King's Insider Report: Negative Effects Of Opening Day Delay?

The award-winning Fantasy Baseball Insider Series continues on RotoBaller, this time with a look at how the Coronavirus pandemic has delayed the opening of the 2020 season, and if there will be any adverse effects. Every year during fantasy baseball draft season, Scott Engel talks to prime MLB sources to get exclusive nuggets of information. On the condition of anonymity, former and current players, executives, scouts, media members and others close to the game provide their unfiltered insights on key players and situations, and Scott supplies his fantasy baseball viewpoints on the commentaries.

These reports contain viewpoints that you will not find anywhere else, from the truest experts on the game: those who play it, have played it, and cover it and work inside the clubhouses. The sources interviewed are all informed that they are being asked questions for fantasy purposes, so they focus on projected player performance and trends that will drive statistical production in their answers.

This installment features interviews with multiple Major League-related sources, finding out if the postponed beginning to the season can potentially impact player performances and outlooks.

Effects of the 2020 Opening Day Delay

RotoBaller asked several sources: When the season finally starts, will either the pitchers or the hitters have more of an advantage after the layoff and a possible short warm-up period? How will the game be impacted?

An MLB veteran of nearly a decade with All-Star credentials told us how he is staying sharp and ready for when play begins, and what he expects when play hopefully resumes.

Fantasy Insider Insights: “I have a weight room downstairs in my house. Plus, I also bought a Max BP Pro pitching machine that emphasizes hand-eye coordination and allows me to work on hitting four different types of pitches. But there is no true substitute for real live pitching. I have gone outside to take some batting practice (with someone who also has played pro baseball). I have worn a mask and done all the right stuff in terms of taking precautions.”

“I think it will be easier for the hitters than the pitchers when we first come back. I do not need many swings to be ready to go. Pitchers need to throw more in games and it will be tough on some of them not being able to work out in those sort of situations.”

Via maxbp.com, examples of how the MaxBP Pro Pitching Machine purchased by our MLB player source can work to simulate live pitching.  

From a 40-year MLB Scout: “The hitters should have an edge early on. The pitchers can only mostly throw off flat ground while there is no real MLB play, and they are not throwing against live hitting, which really cannot be replicated. But they should catch up real fast. Hitters can simulate better than pitchers can during the off-time.”

“I also expect to see a taxi squad of players for each team, who will work out at team facilities and be ready if needed. There is a strong possibility that we will not see Minor League Baseball at all.”

From an MLB reporter who has been on the beat for over 30 years: “I think the pitchers will be ahead of the hitters when they start again. They have more of a real ability to stay in proper shape. They can throw anywhere. Not facing live pitching will keep the pitchers ahead of the hitters. That is the consensus of a lot of the people I have been speaking to, players, executives and scouts. One player I have talked to told me he is doing his best to stay in shape and maintain his form, but it’s not the same as facing live pitching. The game may be different with more day games and doubleheaders. It’s not going to be the same and adjustments will have to be made.”

“There is not going be any real type of Minor League system so rosters will have to be pulled together in new ways. They need to play at least 81 games. But there is a real determination to get things going by the end of May. Every day this goes by is every day we possibly get closer to actually not having a season.”

From a former Major League pitcher who is now a broadcaster: “The layoff can affect both the pitchers and the hitters, in terms of practicing and fine-tuning things. It can be beneficial to some pitchers who had a lot of innings pitched last year. But I get concerned about next year if the season extends into November. That World Series-type hangover that can lead to extra fatigue and injuries would be more widespread.”

“If anything, the pitchers can have something of an advantage. I just needed a few bullpen sessions when I was playing and I felt like I was in mid-season form. Hitters can work off a tee, but the speed at which the actual game is played will always make things more difficult.  Hitters will need more reps. But it’s different for everyone and there will be no absolutes.”

“I think they will need about three weeks of training to start back up and be fully prepared again and ramped up. For some guys, including someone like Yoenis Cespedes, it will be good for them, if they are rehabbing or pitchers coming back from arm injuries. It will be good for some people but ultimately it’s not like players are going to lose their skill sets because of the down time.”

“I am hopeful of there will be at least half of a season. July 4 would be a great weekend to rally around, and then the full playoffs.”

Engel’s Fantasy Angles: As you can see, there are varying takes on who will possibly have an advantage between pitchers and hitters when play hopefully resumes. The current player we spoke to believes he won’t need much time at all to get into form, while another player the beat reporter spoke to believed he might be at a disadvantage not facing like pitching during the down period. Ultimately, as the former pitcher and current broadcaster indicated, there are no absolutes. It should vary from player to player, and those who are customarily slow starters can realistically be expected to possibly struggle early. There is no real sample size in recent years to compare this situation to, so you cannot adjust your draft approaches due to the layoff much.

The Minor League season is definitely threatened, though, and that could mean an adverse effect in dynasty formats or leagues that use Minor League rosters. If teams use taxi squads, those who are added to the rosters could take some time to warm up to actual game conditions, in addition to adjusting to the higher levels of competition.

There has been much speculation on a proposed start date, and at this point, many of the sources we spoke to viewed July 4 or mid-July as the possible latest MLB starting dates.

From The Trainer’s Room

RotoBaller also spoke to a longtime pro sports athletic trainer on how the layoff and delay could affect conditioning and injury outlooks.

Fantasy Insider Insights: “As long as they give the players adequate time to get into playing shape, there will be no real bad effects or much of anything different in terms of injuries. Players nowadays always keep themselves in good shape leading up to spring training. In years past players would be out of shape and would use spring training to get back into shape.”

“Unfortunately some players can lose access to gyms because the team facilities and all gyms are closed. But players will use weights and keep themselves in fairly good condition.”

“The key is for pitchers to keep their arms in shape. That’s a lot of what spring training is about. Pitchers may see an inning or two less of work than they usually do their first times out. It will eventually all even out, though.”

“There will certainly be an advantage to guys who suffered injuries in spring training, like Aaron Judge. They can take advantage of the opportunity to recover. So in every cloud, there is a silver lining. There are too many exhibition games in spring training anyway.”

“I am in favor of Sunday doubleheaders like in the old days, such as the 1960s. I also like the idea of holding the World Series at a neutral site. Most fans can’t go to the games anyway, after so many tickets go to corporate and sponsors, etc. But give season-ticket holders an opportunity to buy tickets if they want to travel to the neutral site. Miami would be a great site. You know the weather won’t be an issue and the park has a retractable roof. Plus, the city has a lot of experience in hosting the Super Bowl, including this year. They know how to handle it.”

Engel’s Fantasy Angles: Obviously, the extra time to recover for currently injured players can push them up on fantasy draft boards. But as pointed out in a previous New York Yankees edition of the Fantasy Baseball Insider Series, Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are significant injury risks regardless if the layoff allows them to open the season as active players.

It seems that the players are as capable as can be to deal with a reduced schedule, and we should not be altering our fantasy projections in any major ways or expect Average Draft Positions to be significantly affected. But we will have to cut the projections in half in a worst-case scenario. There is a very strong chance we could have to alter them for 100-game outlooks. Plus, as previously noted by the former pitcher and broadcaster, teams who play into November could have some players that are adversely affected next season. That will be a factor to keep in mind in dynasty formats and for 2021 drafts.

The Miami suggestion for a neutral site seems like a sensible one even though recent reports have indicated Los Angeles or Phoenix as an early preference.

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice