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After a long hiatus, MMA action is back in full force. Not only that, but we've also discovered that the UFC Apex complex (Las Vegas, NV) and its smaller octagon can do wonders for the sport we love. The past two events definitely overcame expectations. With the last "numbered" card--UFC 250--already in the books, it's time to move on to Fight Nights once more while waiting for the ridiculous UFC 251 that will come in July.
The card from this weekend's event isn't as eye-catching as that from recent or upcoming events, but that could mean more DFS-nerve-racking fights might be on tape. UFC FN Eye vs. Calvillo is headlined by a women's flyweight bout between the no. 1 and no. 10 contenders, and Eye will look to make a serious case to face the current champion, Valentina Shevchenko, for a rematch down the road. On the co-main event, two low-ranked middleweights will meet each other in Marvin Vettori and Karl Roberson, both of them looking to improve their chances at an eventual run at the division's belt.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA lineup picks for DrafKings for UFC FN Eye vs. Calvillo on 6/13/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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UFC FN Women's Flyweight - MMA DFS Lineup Picks
Jessica Eye, $8,300 - vs. Cynthia Calvillo
This isn't a fight you'd label a "main event" in most cases, but here we are. Let's get the most important thing out of the way first: Eye's winning this bout will probably not make for an instant second chance at the title, but Calvillo's ousting Jessica might actually award the Cynthia that bout. Both of these fighters are pretty darn good on their own terms. Eye has won four of her last five fights and lost only to the champ Shevchenko while Calvillo herself has five wins (and a draw) in seven total UFC fights.
In terms of style, the favorite Eye has the striking edge on this fight over Calvillo. Eye throws more volume (165 significant strikes per 15 minutes) and lands on a slightly higher percentage (56%). Calvillo, on the other hand, is the one benefiting the most from the ground game. She has attempted at least three takedowns in each of her last five fights succeeding at least once in four of those five bouts for an average rate of 43%.
Assuming Eye can keep Calvillo off the mat and turn the fight into a brawl, and that both fighters tend to go the distance, it's reasonable to predict a win from the no. 1 contender via decision.
UFC FN Middleweight - MMA DFS Lineup Picks
Marvin Vettori, $8,800 - vs. Karl Roberson
I don't think there is a lot to discuss here. Vettori enters this fight as the clear favorite, and the numbers speak for themselves. While Vettori is only 3-1-1 in his last five fights going back to June 2017, the truth is that his abilities and outcomes are always overwhelming in volume. He's thrown an average of 166 significant strikes per fight (all went the distance) and lands 46% of them while also landing takedowns on high rates. He's just got everything.
Roberson's chances are all about finishing Vettori before the fight reaches the 15-minute mark. The problem for Roberson, though, is that he's only done that once (although that happened in his last fight) and that he's very tame in terms of striking and takedown rates.
Vettori's price is high, but it's more than justified. Even without a fight-finish bonus, Vettori's DKFP is higher than Roberson, and he should be winning this one without much effort after 15 minutes of action.
UFC FN Bantamweight - MMA DFS Lineup Picks
Merab Dvalishvili, $9,200 vs. Ray Borg
Borg's UFC career spans all the way back to 2014, and it has seen him fight for the flyweight belt against Demetrious Johnson less than three years ago. Borg had a great run before that loss (5-2), but since then, he's just 1-2 in the promotion. Dvalishvilil (2-2) is on a two-fight winning streak entering this bout and is the favorite for obvious reasons. While Borg hasn't attempted more than 88 significant strikes in his career, Merab has attempted at least 102 in all of his fights landing 56 on average.
Borg closes the gap on the ground game, though, as he tends to succeed in more than 50% of his attempts while those come in bunches (8.6 per fight), although Dvalishvili doesn't fall short of Borg there. Merab has been successful in 48% of his own attempts (27-for-62), and he's got a couple of fights in which he attempted the insane amounts of 22 and 23 (the sixth- and seventh-most all-time).
It will be close, but the high-octane striking and the impossibly high takedown prowess of Dvalishvili should bring Borg down in a long, battled fight going to decision.
UFC FN Featherweight - MMA DFS Lineup Picks
Andre Fili, $8,600 vs. Charles Jourdain
Only six years of age separate Fili (29) and Jourdain (23), but checking their fight logs could make it hard to believe that. Fili has been fighting in the UFC since 2014 on a perennial up-and-down trajectory that has him on an 8-5 record. Jourdain is on the other side of the spectrum, with both of his two lone fights taking place in 2019 and reading 1-1 on the win-loss column.
Fili is a known asset. He doesn't rely a lot on grappling (he can do it, though, as his victories against Artem Lobov and Dennis Bermudez prove) but his a monster of the striking. The only time Fili has thrown fewer than 117 significant strikes since 2016 was in his last fight--and only because he finished Sheymon Moraes in 3:07 minutes. He averages 170+ SS per bout while landing more than 35% of them.
Beating Fili these days is not going to give Jourdain a massive boost, but it would be a good accomplishment to keep building his resume. After the wild fight against Dooho Choi half a year ago, and having endured that type of brawl, Jourdain could make things difficult for the veteran Fili. I'm betting on Fili's experience to keep things tamed and go the distance earning a win via decision.
UFC FN Bantamweight - MMA DFS Lineup Picks
Mark De La Rosa, $7,700 vs. Jordan Espinosa
The fight of the losers, this one is. Espinosa enters the bout with a 1-2 record and in the middle of a two-fight losing streak. De La Rosa is 4-2 career-wise and on a three-fight losing streak himself. Ugh. At this point (considering only their UFC fights), we know far more about the latter than the former, though, as Espinosa has surrendered to his foes via submission in his last couple of bouts lasting no more than 2:33 minutes at most. While De La Rosa has eaten some Ls he at least has logged more minutes of fighting time.
Prior to entering the UFC circuit, both men logged wins by submission. That has only been the case for De La Rosa in the promotion though. This is such a close fight that it is actually hard to predict, and on top of that both fighters are bulking up to fight at Bantamweight's 135lbs.
De La Rosa's price pits him as the underdog but I have to go with him on this one. He's more experience and needs a win to keep his career alive. Desperate times call for desperate measures, or in this context, for a win-at-all-costs performance by De La Rosa.
