MLB Betting Picks (8/25/2020) - Moneylines, Totals, and Runlines

We left last week off on a great note hitting two overs for the best day that I had in over a week. Things have been pretty rocky thus far but I'm starting to get more comfortable, and hopefully my records begin to reflect that. We're entering the halfway point of the season for some teams and while it's certainly been a roller coaster in this COVID-19 stained season, I'm so grateful that baseball is on my television every night.

• Friday, Aug. 21: 2-0 (+1.7 units)
• 2020 Season Total: 14-17-2 (-4.26 units)

I feel obligated to remind you I'm not a professional and that each play is going to be "bet to lose" one unit. For those of you that followed my KBO run, there is a large amount of luck involved in this but this is all supposed to be fun so please only do this if you enjoy it.

Our betting team has been busy bringing you daily analysis, recommendations, and predictions for this wild 2020 MLB season. I'm pleased to bring you my insight for the MLB slate on Tuesday, August 25th. My analysis will be a little shorter than normal today due to time constraints. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or just chat in general about baseball. Good luck and play smart!

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays (-137)

O/U: 10.5

BOS: Kyle Hart, TOR: Chase Anderson

The Red Sox pitching staff is an absolute debacle right now, and Hart won't make things much better. Through his first 5.2 career innings, he's allowed seven runs with a 9/7 K/BB. The lanky lefty has such a small sample to go off of, but his stuff is less than mediocre, especially facing a righty-heavy lineup. He will have some offensive backup behind him. The Sox have been a bit better at home but have averaged about five rpg in their L3 and have been mashing RHP since August 10, slashing .275/.349/.443 with a 113 wRC+.

Toronto gets Anderson on the bump and we'll see if they let him work any deeper, after not working further than 3.2 innings in three starts. On the surface, his numbers look "okay," allowing just three total runs, including two homers, but in his last two starts he's allowed nine hits. He also has a modest 7/3 K/BB but Statcast thinks things are set to drop hard for the former Brewer. The Jays lineup is in a great spot to open the series, as they're favorable against southpaws, slashing .288/.351/.507 with a .219 ISO and 131 wRC+ in August.

Games played at Toronto's makeshift 2020 home field have been quite the fireworks show, with the seven games averaging a total of 12.7 runs per game. This is a less than stellar pitching matchup and both lineups have been great against their respective pitcher's hand. Give me runs.

Pick: Over 10.5 (-120, Fanduel ) 1 Unit

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (-120)

O/U: 8

CIN: Luis Castillo, MIL: Brandon Woodruff

Cstillo has had some tough draws this year, going 0-3 but has yet to face an NL team and has only faced three different opponents over five starts. He's surrendered just one long ball and has a 36/10 K/BB in 26.1 innings, but has gotten some bad luck. His .403 BABIP is sure to come down, and the .218 xBA, .316 xSLG, and 36 K% are proof that he is due for some positive regression. The lineup has landed in the basement recently, averaging just two rpg over the L4 and carrying a .203 BABIP and 69 wRC+ in August...yikes.

Woodruff is still somewhat of an underrated arm in the NL, but he his last three outings haven't been so exciting. In his last 13.1 innings he has 12/5 K/BB while allowing just one homer, but he's scattered 16 hits and allowed seven runs. Statcast says he's still pitching very well and his 2019 numbers say Miller Park is his favorite place to be. Offensively, the Brewers have continued to struggle mightily. In August, they're slashing /.197/.269/.342 against RHP and have a league-worst 65 wRC+. Coming into Monday, one regular (Luis Arcia) had an average over .250, while Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura have been carrying everything, with seven homers apiece with 15 and 16 RBI, respectively.

The Brewers are 3-6 straight up at home this season and they took down the series opener on Monday. There's no doubt this will be a great pitching matchup, but I like the Reds to break out of their slump and give Castillo the support (while it likely won't be a lot) he needs to get his first win of 2020.

Pick: Cincinnati ML (+102, Draftkings) 1 Unit

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