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As of August 31st, the day of the 2020 MLB Trade Deadline, the Cincinnati Reds sat at a record of 15-19, placing them at fourth-place in the NL Central and well outside of the NL postseason picture in this year of the expanded playoff format. While the Cincinnati offense has been far from elite through August and past the season's halfway point, the main problem has been with the Reds bullpen as evidenced by their 4.09 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in innings 1.0-6.0 (top-10 in MLB) in contrast with their 5.42 ERA (eighth-worst in MLB) and 1.32 WHIP from the seventh inning on.
It was billed as a year prime for the organization to go all-in following their high-profile offseason in which many placed them on the short list of National League contenders, and the Redlegs were desperate for a bullpen boost if they were to make a competitive bid for the postseason. Finally, in a last-second deal on Deadline Day with the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Reds acquired electrifying righty Archie Bradley in exchange for 25-year-old utility-man Josh VanMeter and minor league outfielder Stuart Fairchild (top-15 organizational prospect).
Of the range of hurlers dealt this year, Archie Bradley might be the most exciting name, and considering the fact that he won't hit free agency until 2022, he brings the potential to make a huge impact in Cincinnati for years to come. But with Raisel Iglesias eligible for arbitration and free agency at the same times as Bradley, how will Manager (for now) David Bell distribute responsibilities between the resident closer and the new big-name gas with mounting pressure to win in the short term?
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Who Will Save the Day?
Raisel Iglesias remains the only relief arm to record a save this season in a Reds uniform, having notched five in six opportunities with a 2-2 record through 13.0 IP. Notably, the Cuban native had accumulated 102 saves with the Reds from 2016-2019 and possesses a 3.21 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 400.2 IP with the club. In comparison, Archie "Hollywood" Bradley came to the Queen City after netting six saves in seven chances with a 1-0 record in 10.2 IP for the Diamondbacks; not to mention his 18 saves, seven holds, and four wins with the D-Backs in 2019 and 59 combined holds through 2017-2018, earning him a rare 20th-place finish in the 2017 NL MVP voting (in conjunction with a dominant 1.73 ERA and 1.04 WHIP).
In short, these are two pitchers that are extremely comfortable with high-leverage work and have achieved substantial success from those positions. Interestingly, since Bradley was brought in this past Monday, David Bell has thrown Iglesias into play several times while apparently trying to gradually ease 28-year-old Archie into the fold as the Reds have gone 2-3 with a -14 run differential. In that brief window, Iglesias has allowed four hits, three walks, and zero ER with three strikeouts, one win, and one save across 3.1 IP; while Bradley was deployed just once during the 16-2 loss to the Cardinals on Wednesday, only allowing two hits with two strikeouts in a robust 1.2 inning stint.
Basically, the first week of the new-look Cincy bullpen hasn't highlighted much other than the fact that Bell and the Reds tend to stick with whom they are most comfortable and are hesitant to remove Raisel from closer duties (as he tends to make a stink of it when they do), but we already knew this. The real question is: who is most likely to receive the bulk of save chances, both for the remainder of 2020 and the 2021 season, and who is most likely to thrive in the role they are assigned? To drastically complicate this matter, Iglesias and Bradley are two pitchers who seem to be performing far better than their surface numbers would indicate.
30-year-old Iglesias has steadily worked down to a 4.50 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, and sports such figures as a 0.8 HR/9, 3.0 BB/9, and 12.8 K/9 which combine for an impressive 2.64 FIP. His opponents hold a .310 BABIP, which frankly, seems outrageous. His barrel rate and hard-hit rate are down by 1.1% and 5.6% to 6.7% and 26.7% respectively, his hard contact rate on batted balls has fallen by 12.2% to 26.7%, his line drive rate has plummeted from 26.2% to 13.8%, and his ground ball rate has made a massive leap from 29.9% to 48.3%. The sole caveat comes from his soft contact on batted balls rate falling from 22.8% to 13.3%. His changeup still hovers at 89 MPH, his slider is back to 85 MPH, and his fastball once again clocks in over 96 MPH, and through the body of his peripheral numbers, Iglesias should truly be well on his way to a career-season for 2020.
If you can wrap your head around it: you can say almost exactly the same things about Bradley, except that Bradley's numbers may be even more promising. In total for this season, the former consensus top-10 prospect has produced a 3.65 ERA and 1.46 WHIP off of 10.2 K/9, zero allowed home runs, and a career-best 2.2 BB/9 in 12.1 IP. His FIP currently sits at 1.84, which is currently the best measure of his six-year career by a significant margin (0.77). Now, while his BABIP is sky-high at .441, his barrel rate has risen seven ticks to 11.8%, his hard contact on batted balls rate is up to 47.1%, and his ground ball and line drive rates have practically flip-flopped to 32.4% and 38.2%. Still, his walk rate is down from 11.4% to 5.8%, his hard-hit rate is 35.3% (down 3.3%), he is forcing 6.2% more batted balls into center field, and his batted-balls soft contact rate is up from 14.8% to 20.6%. While there are some numbers packed in that mix that inspire trepidation, the career-best 5.8% walk rate is optimistic enough, and not allowing a single dinger thus far while calling Chase Field and Great American Ball your home is emphatically impressive.
Ultimately, this is all good news for the Reds: everyone loves a decision with two correct choices. With the way that this first week since the trade has unfolded, David Bell seems set on easing Archie into the high-leverage equation without the urgency that the Reds' current standing would probably demand, and that is a luxury that he has been temporarily afforded with Iglesias finding the groove that he had lost around late-July and mid-August. Let there be no delusions though: the Reds are 2.0 games behind the Brewers for second place in the NL Central and are within arm's reach of the Marlins, Mets, Cardinals, Rockies, and Giants for the NL Wildcard spots. If Raisel Iglesias stumbles even one more time, there is a very good chance that Bradley slowly starts to eclipse him in the ninth inning.
Cincinnati gave up a young, MLB-tested utility bat in VanMeter and a highly regarded outfield prospect in Fairchild to land him, and he is now the blue chip backup plan that they have lacked for several seasons. Not to mention that Raisel surprisingly remains the more expensive of the two even though Archie is younger and probably more marketable (from a popularity perspective), and it wasn't that long ago that the Reds were floating Raisel's name around the trade deadline market.
Putting up career-best marks for walks and HR allowed is a fantastic formula for success in a dinger-friendly venue like GABP, and while he may hit the mound from the sixth to the eighth inning and could grab zero to five holds in the meantime, all it will take is a high-key slip-up from Iglesias for Bradley to grab the reigns at closer for the rest of 2020, and by extension, carrying over into 2021. Raisel Iglesias has been a fixture in Cincinnati for years, but the circumstantial body leads me to believe that Archie Bradley is the arm with a future as a Redleg. Raisel Iglesias is currently rostered in 88% of leagues, while Archie Bradley is rostered in 77% of leagues, and that number has fallen by 10% in the last day. If you are down for a roll of the dice and could use some holds, wins, or strikeouts to pass the time, he could be an ultra-sneaky buy-low candidate with one-third of the season to spare.
Loose Ends Before the Last Inning
The Reds only have 12 holds on the season through 37 games, accumulated by seven different players, one of whom (Pedro Strop) is no longer with the team, with at least half of the remaining field still struggling to find their rhythm on the mound. Strop, Tyler Thornburg, Robert Stephenson, and Michael Lorenzen each have one; Lucas Sims has two, with Nate Jones and Amir Garrett leading the field with three apiece. Additionally, the only Reds relievers to pick up a win during this campaign have been Sims (two), Joel Kuhnel (one), and Lorenzen (one).
Two-way athlete Mikey "Biceps" Lorenzen becomes a FA in 2022 with Iglesias and Bradley. Lorenzen is a former college outfielder and 98+ MPH slinger who has accumulated seven HR, five steals, and a .235/.284/.432 slash in 132 AB over six years in Cincinnati. After his 21-hold/seven-save showing of 2019, Lorenzen was slated as the go-to setup man behind Iglesias in 2020, and while that was derailed after his horrendous seven-game start, he has bounced back big-time with a 2.77 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over his last 13.0 IP (which took him just five outings to rack up). Lorenzen can still see high-leverage work. A week ago, this meant receiving moderate looks at the eighth and ninth innings. Now, with Archie in town and each appearance stretching 2.0-4.0 IP, that's likely diminished to the occasional long hold or extra-long save. When noting that Lorenzen tallied eight wins in a similar role for 2017, that capacity is nothing to sneeze at.
Nate Jones (6.39 ERA and 1.66 WHIP) has struggled this season compared to years past with the White Sox (3.12 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, nine saves in 291.1 IP), but has been an economical asset with his $100K salary, and is set to hit the FA market after this year. Despite being tied with Garrett, the former Northern Kentucky Norseman hasn't notched a hold since August 14th, and is likely a non-factor in the category moving forward. Still, a player like Jones (and Thornburg for that matter) shouldn't be easily dismissed: teams always need a couple of guys like him for the thrifty experience and volume of work.
Amir Garrett has improved every year since debuting in the big leagues, posting a 2.31 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9, and 13.9 K/9 through 11.2 IP this season. The fiery on-field presence and former St. John's hooper has shockingly yet to earn a save in 201.1 MLB IP, and has seen his role become far less transparent over the last three seasons, netting 43 combined holds from 2018-2019 yet capturing just three this year, which is quite mysterious considering he is actually staying in games longer this year than in years previous. Fortunately, as Jones began to falter, Garrett began bulldozing back into his previous slot, hammering all three of his holds of 2020 from August 20th onward.
ROS Outlook
For the rest of this shortened season, there are just three Reds RP that you want any part of: the obvious combo of Bradley and Iglesias, and Garrett (rostered in 5% of leagues) either as an insurance policy or a second-half surger in leagues incorporating holds. I would love to have confidence in saying that this trajectory indicates a 2021 bullpen pecking order of Bradley/Iglesias, Garrett, Lorenzen, etc. where each arm earns their neatly divided portion of saves, holds, and wins for the rest of 2020 running into 2021, but that's rarely how the Reds (or any other MLB club) run the show. Each offseason brings a new wave of budget-friendly vets, platoon specialists, and big-league ready farmhands; which for the Reds, could feature the likes of Nick Lodolo, Ryan Hendrix, Hunter Greene, and even the three college arms of the 2020 draft class as soon as Opening Day 2021.
You've got to love the annual chaos brought on by the Trade Deadline. While major trades, especially those involving the bullpen, can certainly throw a monkey wrench in best-laid plans, it is through these shake-ups that windows of opportunity open, and the same goes for the heated closer battle opened up by the Cincinnati Reds this week.
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