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You can officially start panicking. We're already through three weeks of the year, and by next Monday at this time, you'll be looking at the schedule to realize that a quarter of the season is already behind us. It sucks, but it means there are still three more quarters ahead of us! Yay!
To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.
Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received five total writing awards and 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, tops in the industry! Congrats to all the award winners and nominees including Best NFL Series, MLB Series, NBA Writer, PGA Writer and Player Notes writer of the year. Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!
Week 3 - The State Of The Passing Game
Back a couple of weeks ago when I introduced the series to you, I mentioned one of the most important concepts to consider when analyzing players: Air Yards. The metrics around it are key to know who is really over-performing or under-performing among receivers and passers, but it doesn't have much to do with rushers. For this last group, which mostly features on the ground, we can look at time, speed, and efficiency metrics.
For the first week's analysis, I opted to go with the receivers (and tight ends) group. For the second one iteration, I turned my attention to running backs, for which we looked at Efficiency and time-related metrics to try and get some insights from the data.
Now the time has come to tackle the most important position at football and probably every other sport out there: quarterbacks.
Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with quarterback-fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.
As we'll be discussing quarterbacks and their passing stats, I will reduce the fantasy points per game averages to just those related to passing. That means that I have removed the rushing/receiving fantasy points the qualifying quarterbacks have logged during the season. I've called this metric paFP/G, which is to say passing Fantasy Points per Game.
So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 23 pass attempts.
Time to Throw
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2019 season): negative-10%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- As you can see, there is a clear top-of-the-leaderboard group of four quarterbacks through three weeks of games, led by a second-year player (Dwayne Haskins Jr.) and the biggest of boom/bust plays (Ryan Fitzpatrick) at the position.
- Except for Washington's OL, which ranks a putrid 28th in Football Outsiders' DVOA in pass protection, the other three OLs of the top-four QBs in TT rank 11th-best at worst. Haskins keeps getting rid of the ball early fearing a sack (he's absorbed 10 already...) but it is not that he's being too good at it with a paltry 11.7 paFP/G and a 56.4% completion rate, both among the three-worst marks of QBs with at least 100 pass attempts.
- Only Big Ben has been able to put up more than 13 paFP/G while throwing the ball in lightning-quick fashion. His points are quite inflated thanks to his 7 TDs, as the other three QBs in that group have 4 TD at most. That being said, Roethlisberger has thrown just one interception, also helping his outcomes.
- It would be cool if throwing the ball quickly meant the opposite to taking more time to throw it, but as we saw last season that is not the case (paltry negative-10% correlation with fantasy points).
- Just look at the bottom of the chart above. Sure, Josh Allen and Russell Wilson are both over 26 paFP/G with TTs above 3.00, but they are sandwiched between two absolutely disastrous quarterbacks in Lock and Mayfield, both averaging below 13 paFP/G.
- Of the six quarterbacks averaging more than 20 paFP/G, four of them are posting TTs below 2.85 with the other two (Wilson and Allen) over 3.07.
- On the other end, six more QBs ar at-or-under 10 paFP/G, and all except one (Drew Lock) are throwing the ball in fewer than 2.80 seconds.
- Wilson and Allen, having the 24th and 18th best OLs of the season in pass blocking DVOA so far, are the only QBs averaging 19+ paFP/G with a worse-than-8th OL. They have overcome that and spent more time to throw than the rest of the quarterbacks of that group, though.
- All things considered, don't put much weight on this metric, as it is way more descriptive of past performance than predictive of future ones.
Completed/Intended Air Yards & Air Yards Differential
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2019 season): 49% / 39% / 10%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- If you have been paying even a minimal amount of attention to the storylines of the season through three weeks of play, you know how the "is Drew Brees done?" debate is splitting crowds in half. Truth be told, Brees has looked bad so far with a middling average of just 3.9 completed air yards (second-worst) and a much more worrying league-worst 4.8 intended air yards. That mark is 1.2 yards lower than second-worst Jared Goff's 6.0 IAY...
- New Orleans has missed WR Michael Thomas and saw TE Jared Cook went down to injury, which has put the passing game in a precarious condition only sustained by RB Alvin Kamara out of the backfield. Kamara, obviously, is not going to boost Brees' air yardage as the tailback is averaging a stupid 0.2 aDOT in 31 targets...
- This is concerning for Fantasy GMs with shares of Brees and the Saints, as there is a very strong correlation between both CAY and IAY and paFP/G.
- We all knew that Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, Dwayne Haskins, or even Herbert/Garoppolo/Carr/Rivers were always going to "underthrow", and that has been the case. The problem is that we expected that, while it wasn't so clear in Brees' case (just look at his ADP entering this season).
- Although Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins are at completely opposite ends of quarterback play styles, both of them have pretty similar CAY and IAY numbers so far. Ryan is doing it on a much higher volume, though, which has him averaging almost twice as many paFP/G as Cousins is. Ryan is always bombing the ball away (128 passing attempts) while Cousins keep the passing volume low (78 attempts) only throwing seemingly efficient bombs. The latter is hitting them, but on such a low volume those passes are too risky to rack up massive points on a steady diet.
- Only Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson are throwing the ball more than 9.0 yards downfield while not having been intercepted once through three games. Rodgers, on top of that, is at 9 TDs already to Jackson's 5 TDs. Lamar, though, is doing it while playing under the 31st-best OL, which is to say the 2nd-worst in pass protection...
- Jared Goff is the only player through W3 with a neutral difference between his average depth of target and average completion depth, both at 6.0 yards downfield.
- Ryan Tannehill is completing, on average, 95% of the yards he's targeting with his passes (8.0 IAY, 7.6 CAY). Goff leads at 100%, and only four more QBs are at 90% or above (Nick Mullens, Daniel Jones, Josh Allen, and Dak Prescott).
- Re: the last point. Daniel Jones' outcomes might look impressive, but he's reaching them on 6.2 yards per attempt while all of Goff, Mullens, and Allen are averaging at least 8.8 Y/A, a much tougher proposition.
- Getting back to that group of six 20+ paFP/G QBs, Aaron Rodgers is the only one there with an AYD lower than minus-1.5 yards. It must be said that he also has the second-highest IAY of them at 9.6 yards, though.
- Of the six under-10 paFP/G QBs, four have AYD marks below minus-3.0. As you can see, the correlation from 2019 pops up here strongly once more.
Aggressiveness
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2019 season): 4%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- We define "Aggressiveness" as the percentage of passes a quarterback throws into tight coverage, that is, when a defender is within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the point of the catch/interception. Don't take this metric as a sign of "braveness" or anything like that, though. It relates more to reckless-passing than anything else.
- A quick peek at the most aggressive passers gives you an idea of what we're dealing with here. Trubisky has been benched already, Fitzpatrick is insane, Jones has yet to prove his worth, Haskins is a second-year and dubious franchise quarterback, and Joe Burrow has played three games as a pro...
- Although the trailers and leaders showed in the chart above might make you think otherwise, we saw in 2019 how there is virtually no relationship at all between Agg% and paFP/G. It's funny to find the most aggressive passers are almost all underperforming in comparison to the least aggressive ones through three weeks, though.
- Joe Burrow has attempted the second-most passes so far this year (141), and he has also thrown the most attempts into tight windows (29 passes). Fitzpatrick is second with 28 such passes, followed by Trubisky (27) and Jones (26).
- Russell Wilson, even having attempted 103 passes, has thrown just 8 of them into tight windows. Only he, Sam Darnold, and Teddy Bridgewater have attempted 10 or fewer "risky" passes while throwing at least 96 overall through W3.
- Of the top-six QBs on paFP/G, only Dak Prescott and Matt Ryan have thrown more than 13% of their passes into tight windows.
- Of the bottom-six QBs on paFP/G, three are over 15% AGG%, and the other three below that rate.
- The correlation, as noted before, is virtually just random between this metric and fantasy production even though the early-season (small) sample might make it look otherwise.
Attempts & Yards & Y/A
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2019 season): 55% / 67% / 65%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- Not many big secrets hidden in these three stats, am I right? The correlation is high with fantasy points basically because fantasy points rely mostly on pure yardage, and to rack up yards you have to throw the ball (the more the better, that is).
- Only six quarterbacks are attempting more than 40 passes per game, and five of them are averaging at least 14.8 paFP/G. Tip: throw the ball often, folks.
- Prescott is averaging the most passes per game at 47.7, followed by Burrow (47), and Carson Wentz (44). Given that Wentz has been absolutely atrocious to start the year, he better start attempting 60 passes per game, or his fantasy outcomes will remain super low... You have to try, I guess.
- San Francisco clearly has a defined style, as both Garoppolo and Mullens have averaged the second- and third-fewest passes per game this season in two games (one split in half) each with just 24.5 and 23.5 respectively. Drew Lock trails at 19 Att/G.
- Josh Allen is as good as he has looked so far, folks. Believe it. His 1,038 passing yards rank second only to Prescott's 1,188. The thing is, Allen has reached that mark on 29 fewer attempts through three weeks of play, averaging 9.1 Y/A compared to Dak's 8.3.
- The usual suspects populate the top of the yardage-leaderboard, with Prescott, Allen, Ryan, Wilson, Mahomes, and Rodgers in the top six. The seventh might surprise, you, though: Teddy Bridgewater has passed for 871 yards already in just 104 attempts for a pretty sweet 8.4 Y/A average (on par with Rodgers, Prescott, or Deshaun Watson).
- Sam Darnold has been mediocre at best. He is the only QB with 90+ passing attempts that has yet to reach 600 passing yards... He's averaging a paltry 5.9 Y/A and only Wentz (5.6) and Burrow (5.8) have been worst at that (yet both of them have 140+ attempts compared to Darnold's 96...)
Completion Percentage & xCOMP & COMP Above Expectation
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2019 season): 49% / 9% / 53%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- The world of hypotheticals is cool, but what truly matters is what actually happens on the field. That is why the real completion percentage is the stat that matters, and why the expected rate doesn't cut a good deal for fantasy GMs.
- That being said, the difference between both marks (CPOE) is the strongest indicator of fantasy performance, which makes sense considering that those that "overperform" or play to higher-than-expected levels on average are the ones who more often than not put on high-octane performances.
- As with all rate or average metrics, they don't mean much if they don't come attached to volume. Take Philip Rivers. The new Colts QB is completing 78.3% of his passes, but he only has 92 attempts with an aDOT of 6.9 yards per pass. He's hitting the mark at an impressive clip, but he's averaging almost one-third of Russell Wilson's paFP/G. Why? Because Wilson is completing 76.7% of his passes while attempting 103 of them at an aDOT of 7.9 (and playing with a better receiving corps, too).
- Rivers might very well be the exception that proves the rule--or high correlation, in this case. In a group made of 10 players, he's one of only four QBs averaging fewer than 13 paFP/G with completion rates above 70%. Among those 10 QBs, only Nick Mullen's is averaging fewer than 12 paFP/G.
- On the other end, only Nick Foles (who else...) is averaging more than 13.5 paFP/G while completing fewer than 62% of the passes attempted so far this season.
- The "Let Russ Cook" slogan is starting to get beaten to the ground and turning into a dad's joke already, but it is as true as it can be. Wilson has completed 76.7% of his passes while expected to connect in just 67% (!) of them. That makes for a CPOE of 9.7, which ranks first in the league and is 1.5-percentage points above second-best Rivers (8.2).
- Outside of the top-three QBs in CPOE (Carr is third at 8.1), nobody is above 6.7 percentage points of his completion expectations.
- It's nice to find Joe Burrow already completing 4.6 percent more passes than expected as a rookie, with just three games under his belt.
- Dwayne Haskins Jr., the supposed guy to lead Washington back to contention from the pocket, is net-worse than Russell Wilson, obviously in the opposite direction, completing negative-9.8 percent fewer passes than expected. That means that he should have completed 67 throws instead of his 57 through W3.
- As expected, Mahomes is all alone as the only quarterback averaging more than 18 paFP/G while having a negative (minus-3.0) CPOE. Such is life. On the contrary, Nick Mullens (4.1 CPOE) and to a lesser extent Daniel Jones (0.7) are the only two QBs with fewer than 10 paFP/G averages but positive CPOE marks.
That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!
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