RADIO
Hi, y'all! Six weeks of NFL action are in the books and we're moving on to another. Welcome to our Week 7 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. Each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information.
Frank Ammirante will start off by covering the first set of games that begin at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, and Justin Carter will take you home with his analysis of the late afternoon and evening games. You can also read about the Monday Night Football matchup. Let's help guide you to that Week 7 victory!
If you have any additional lineup questions, follow us on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and @juscarts and feel free to ask away. Let's get on to the matchups!
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Matchups Analysis - 1:00 PM ET Games
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team
Matchups We Love:
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)
Zeke is coming off a forgettable performance on Monday Night Football where he fumbled twice and was limited to 49 rushing yards on 12 attempts. While Washington (20.9 PPR PPG, 7th in NFL) has been stout against the run, Zeke has become a focal point in the passing game, posting 11 targets this past week. Expect more check-downs to Elliott in another game with the Cowboys' o-line woes. Bet on the bounce-back and high volume.
Amari Cooper (WR, DAL)
Cooper has owned Washington throughout his time in Dallas, totaling 16 receptions, 316 yards, and three touchdowns in three games against them over the past two seasons. Cooper has the lowest aDOT (8.8) among this trio of wide receivers, so he could be the biggest beneficiary of Dalton working the intermediate game while under duress from this Washington pass-rush. Cooper has an advantage over cornerback Ronald Darby (69.3 PFF Grade).
Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS)
Gibson takes on a Cowboys Defense that was just shredded by Kenyan Drake for 164 yards and two touchdowns. The Cowboys rank 22nd in PPR PPG to opposing running backs. This projects to be a close game, so it could be a positive game script for Gibson, who often comes off the field for J.D. McKissic in fast-paced or catch-up situations. Gibson has posted five targets in three consecutive games, so perhaps the coaching staff is starting to gain trust in him.
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)
McLaurin finally gets a break after dealing with the likes of James Bradberry, Jalen Ramsey, Marlon Humphrey, Denzel Ward, Patrick Peterson, and Darius Slay over the past six weeks. This week McLaurin projects to line up against Daryl Worley (53.1 PFF Grade). The Cowboys are allowing the fifth-most PPR PPG to wide receivers. McLaurin has posted a 42% air yard share (4th in NFL) and 26% target share (T-7th in NFL). This is a smash spot.
Matchups We Hate:
Andy Dalton (QB, DAL)
The Cowboys offensive line is decimated with injuries and it showed on Monday night - Dalton was sacked three times and limited to 4.9 yards per attempt against the Cardinals. Now he'll have to deal with a Washington front-seven that features five former first-rounders. Chase Young and Co. will be licking their chops in this matchup. It's going to be tough for Dalton to make big plays downfield under duress, so his upside is limited in this game.
Michael Gallup (WR, DAL)
Gallup leads the team in aDOT (16.0) by a large margin, which makes him a risky option with the current state of the Cowboys o-line. It's going to be difficult for Dalton to connect with Gallup on a deep pass, so until we see some more consistency out of this new-look offense, we need to avoid Gallup. The third-year receiver only has a combined 15 targets over his last three games, which makes it tough to rely on him as anything more than a DFS dart throw.
Other Matchups:
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
Lamb (9.6 aDOT) has a chance to make an impact like Cooper in this game, but I prefer the veteran due to his higher target share (23% for Cooper, 17% for Lamb). It's hard to see more than one Cowboy wide receiver reaching their ceiling in the same game with this banged-up o-line, which is why I consider Lamb a lukewarm play. Lamb projects to match up with Jimmy Moreland (49.1 PFF Grade), so there's still a chance that he breaks loose.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans
Matchups We Love:
James Conner (RB, PIT)
After leaving early with an injury in the season opener, Conner has received RB1 usage, averaging 19.75 touches in the past four games. He takes on a Titans Defense that is allowing 24.9 PPR PPG (20th in NFL) and 5.02 yards per attempt (27th in NFL). Star guard David DeCastro has a chance to play in this game, which would provide a boost to this offensive line. Conner looks like a high floor play in an exploitable matchup here.
Matchups We Hate:
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, PIT)
JuJu has fallen off the radar in this passing game, catching only 10-of-14 targets for a combined 87 yards and one touchdown in his last three games. He's been used as a low-aDOT (4.6) slot receiver and is not getting enough volume (18% target share) to thrive in that role. While he gets a good matchup with Kristian Fulton (57.4 PFF Grade), it's tough to rely on JuJu with his diminished role, especially since the Steelers should run the ball well here.
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)
The Titans just lost left tackle Taylor Lewan to a torn ACL, which is terrible timing against a Steelers Defense that ranks 2nd with a 54% pass-rush win-rate. Tannehill is playing at an elite level right now, but it's tough to trust him in a game where he projects to be under pressure early and often. He'll need to add some rushing production to deliver a decent fantasy game against a Steelers defense that ranks 8th in PPR PPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Other Matchups:
Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT)
Roethlisberger takes on a Titans defense that ranks 28th in PPR PPG to opposing passers, but this is a game that I expect the Steelers to control with the running game. It's tough to consider Big Ben as anything more than a potential streamer given the depth of the quarterback position. Although I do like Roethlisberger as a potential pivot play from James Conner in DFS tournaments, there are better streamers available this week in season-long formats.
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)
Johnson finally returns this week without any injury designations, which is a great sign for a receiver who still leads this team in target share (20%). I firmly believe that had he not gotten injured, we would be talking about Johnson as an every-week WR2. The Titans have allowed the third-most PPR PPG to wide receivers, but we can't consider Johnson a smash play because he's returning from injury. We need to see receiver usage with everyone now healthy.
Chase Claypool (WR, PIT)
Claypool has become a scoring machine, posting five total touchdowns in his last two games. He has a great matchup against the Titans, but like Diontae, it's tough to consider him more than a lukewarm play because we need to see how things change with all hands on deck for Big Ben. The good news is that the team is manufacturing touches to their dynamic rookie - Claypool has three red-zone rush attempts and two rushing scores in the last two games.
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
Henry exploded for 212 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the soft Texans run defense last week, but now he has a far more imposing matchup. The Steelers have allowed the third-fewest PPR PPG to opposing running backs this season, including only 3.22 yards per attempt. While the team just lost Devin Bush, it remains to be seen how much this will impact their run defense. Consider Henry more of a mid-range RB1 in this one.
A.J. Brown (WR, TEN)
Brown has been fantastic since returning from injury, catching 12-of-16 targets for 138 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games. He projects to be matched up with Steven Nelson (65.9 PFF Grade), but we could see a tough day for a Lewan-less o-line against this Steelers pass-rush. Brown is also dealing with back issues, which kept him out of Thursday's practice. Monitor his status and consider him a mid-range WR2 in this game.
Jonnu Smith (TE, TEN)
The Steelers rank 7th in PPR PPG to opposing tight ends, but they just lost linebacker Devin Bush for the season, so Smith could have a chance to get loose against replacement Robert Spillane. Smith is limited by an ankle injury, but he returned to a full practice on Thursday, so it's likely that he'll play. Still, it's tough to consider him as anything more than a lukewarm play since he's banged-up and facing an elite defense.
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons
Matchups We Love:
Kenny Golladay (WR, DET)
Golladay is in a smash-spot in a projected shootout against a Falcons Defense allowing the sixth-most PPR PPG to opposing wide receivers. Golladay should have his way with Kendall Sheffield (32.8 PFF Grade) in this game. The Falcons defense has been stout against the run (3.66 yards per attempt, 7th in NFL), so we can expect Stafford to pepper Golladay with targets in this dream matchup.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
Hockenson is also in a terrific spot against a Falcons defense that has given up the third-most PPR PPG to opposing tight ends. He's only combined for 26 yards in the last two games, so we can expect the Lions to make it a point of emphasis to feature their talented tight end more often here. Hockenson looks like a good bet to find the endzone in a game that should feature a lot of fireworks. You can fire him up with confidence as a mid-range TE1.
Matt Ryan (WR, ATL)
Ryan bounced back in a big way with the return of Julio, throwing for 371 yards (9.3 yards per attempt) and four touchdowns against the Vikings. This is a different offense with Julio in the lineup and they get another great matchup against a Lions Defense that has posted a 32% pass-rush win-rate (31st in NFL) and 25.1 PPR PPG (T-24th in NFL). Ryan should have a clean pocket to pick apart this Lions secondary.
Calvin Ridley (WR, ATL)
Ridley projects to match up with rookie Jeffrey Okudah (37.8 PFF Grade), who has struggled mightily this season. While Ridley has been dealing with a nagging elbow injury, but he should be good to go at full usage in this game. After Julio took center stage last week, I expect Ridley to be the top target for Ryan here. The Lions are allowing the seventh-most PPR PPG to opposing wide receivers.
Julio Jones (WR, ATL)
Jones came back with a splash last week, catching 8-of-10 targets for 137 yards and two touchdowns. Like teammate Ridley, Julio gets an exploitable matchup against Amani Oruwariye (64.9 PFF Grade). Both Falcons receivers should be viewed as WR1s in this game. They will likely be popular in DFS this week, so a good option would be to play both of them together with Ryan as a way of differentiating your lineup from the crowd.
Matchups We Hate:
Hayden Hurst (TE, ATL)
Hurst has been inconsistent this season, posting 38 yards or less in three of six games this season. The Lions defense has done a good job against opposing tight ends, limiting them to only 6.3 PPR PPG (2nd in NFL). Hurst will likely need to find the endzone in order to provide adequate production in this game. I wouldn't even recommend him as a pivot play for DFS tournaments, as Gurley is the preferred choice if you're going that route.
Other Matchups:
Matthew Stafford (QB, DET)
Stafford is in a terrific spot against a Falcons defense allowing the most PPR PPG to opposing quarterbacks, but he hasn't played well this season, which keeps him on my lukewarm list this week. While I still consider Stafford a low-end QB1 this week, I'm not running to play him in most of my DFS lineups because of the way he's played this season. His yards per attempt has decreased from 8.6 to 7.4 so far this year, so temper your expectations.
D'Andre Swift (RB, DET)
Swift finally broke out for 116 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries last week, but Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson are still receiving some touches, which limits the rookie's upside. The Falcons have allowed the second-most receptions to opposing running backs, so Swift should make more of an impact in the passing game in this one. While I still consider Swift a high-upside FLEX here, we can't view him as an RB2 until we see more usage.
Todd Gurley (RB, ATL)
Gurley has a great matchup against a Lions defense allowing 5.25 yards per attempt (31st in NFL) and 29.6 PPR PPG (27th in NFL). It's also encouraging to see that he's starting to get used more in the passing game, combining for nine targets in the last two games after only putting up eight in the previous four. We can consider Gurley a solid RB2 in this shootout, but I prefer the Falcons passing game, which keeps Gurley as a lukewarm play.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Matchups We Love:
Kareem Hunt (RB, CLE)
Hunt has a good matchup against a Bengals Defense allowing 5.19 yards per attempt (29th in NFL). Baker is banged-up and struggling right now, so we could see the head coach Kevin Stefanski emphasize Hunt in the screen game to help build up his young quarterback's confidence. The Browns are fresh off an embarrassing loss to the Steelers, so we could see them bounce-back in a close game here by getting back to their identity of running the football.
Tyler Boyd (WR, CIN)
Boyd is the top option in this passing game (20% target share, leads Bengals). He takes on a Browns Defense allowing the fourth-most PPR PPG to opposing wide receivers. Boyd projects to be matched up with Kevin Johnson (65.2 PFF Grade), which is the best matchup out of any Bengals receiver in this game. We could also see even more of a pass-heavy approach from Cincy with Mixon dealing with a foot injury.
Matchups We Hate:
Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)
There's no reason to even consider Mayfield in this game, as he's less than 100 percent and playing poorly right now. The Bengals defense is allowing 7.03 yards per attempt, which ranks 12th in the NFL. They have also allowed only 22.2 PPR PPG to opposing quarterbacks (13th in NFL). We can expect the Browns to lean on the running game mixed with short passes here. Mayfield is only an option in SuperFlex formats this week.
Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE)
Landry is playing through a rib injury, which has affected his production, limiting him to 3 receptions and 40 yards last week against the Steelers. The Browns should lean on the short-to-intermediate passing game this week, so there's a chance that Landry gets back on track, but it's difficult to trust him since he's playing hurt. I would consider Landry a WR4 in this matchup.
A.J. Green (WR, CIN)
Green needs to be benched in all formats because he's no longer the top downfield target in Cincinnati. It would be nice to see the veteran traded to a contending team like then Packers, but until then, you should look elsewhere at wide receiver. I would only recommend considering him in DFS tournaments as a contrarian play with low ownership.
Other Matchups:
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, CLE)
Beckham is coming off back-to-back tough matchups against the Colts and Steelers. He's a better option than Landry this week, but it's tough to rely on him right now with the way Mayfield is playing. OBJ takes on a Bengals defense that ranks 13th in PPR PPG to opposing wide receivers, so it's not like this is a great matchup. Consider Beckham a mid-range WR3 in this game.
David Njoku (TE, CLE) & Harrison Bryant (TE, CLE)
With Austin Hooper ruled out for this week, the Browns will now turn to a pair of talented tight ends to take his place. I wouldn't recommend either player as a streamer because it's unclear who will have more usage between them. I'd bet on Bryant as the preferred option since he was drafted by the current regime. On the other hand, we could see the Browns showcase Njoku for potential trades. Both players do have DFS tournament appeal as cheap punt plays.
Giovani Bernard (RB, CIN)
Bernard jumps right in to replace Mixon, putting him on the RB2/FLEX fringe. The Browns are a tough matchup, allowing only 3.81 yards per attempt (10th in NFL). While Bernard has excelled in the past when called into duty, it's now been two years since he started a game. Bernard seems to have lost a step in recent years, so temper your expectations here. We could also see the Bengals give some work to Samaje Perine or Trayveon Williams.
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)
Higgins has quietly been among the most impressive rookie receivers this season, posting 14 receptions for 264 yards in his last three games. He's overtaken Green as the primary downfield threat in this offense and he should see some positive regression in the touchdown department going forward. Higgins will likely be matched up with Denzel Ward (71.2 PFF Grade), so this is a tough matchup, making Higgins more of a lukewarm play.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Matchups We Love:
D.J. Moore (WR, CAR)
Moore has come to life in the last two weeks, catching 9-of-16 targets for 186 yards and one touchdown. He's projected to line up against struggling former star Marcus Lattimore (47.2 PFF Grade) in a projected shootout. Moore has a higher aDOT (11.9) and air-yard share (41%) than Anderson, so there's still a chance that he can reclaim his role as the WR1 in this offense.
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
Kamara has a smash spot against a Panthers Defense allowing the fourth-most PPR PPG to opposing running backs. The Panthers have also given up the most receptions to running backs, which bodes well for Kamara, who does most of his damage in the passing game. With Michael Thomas out for another week and Emmanuel Sanders also injured, expect Kamara to be absolutely peppered with targets. He's the top play at RB this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Drew Brees (QB, CAR)
Brees is off my radar until Michael Thomas returns, especially in a matchup against a Panthers defense that has been stingy against the pass. The Panthers are allowing the fourth-fewest PPR PPG to opposing quarterbacks, including 6.08 yards per attempt (best in NFL). We could see the Saints lean on the running game against a run-funnel defense like this one. Consider Brees a QB2 option this week.
Jared Cook (TE, NO)
The Panthers defense is tied for 11th in PPR PPG to opposing tight ends and in a game where I expect the Saints to run the ball, Cook is a clear avoid. The veteran tight end has only been targeted six times in the last two games, so he's become too touchdown-dependent. Wait until Thomas returns to open things up for this offense before plugging Cook back into your lineup.
Other Matchups:
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, CAR)
Bridgewater has a good matchup against a struggling Saints Defense allowing the fourth-most PPR PPG to opposing passers, but there's a chance that they've corrected things coming out of the bye. Pass-rusher Marcus Davenport is healthy, so we could see some improvement from this defense. Let's not forget how they've started off slow in recent years - we can't underestimate this defense. Bridgewater is on the streaming radar, but temper your expectations.
Mike Davis (RB, CAR)
Davis has a tough matchup against a Saints defense allowing 3.63 yards per attempt (6th in NFL), but he's getting RB1 usage, so the volume keeps him firmly in play as a Top-15 running back. Davis has racked up 32 targets in five games. He's a difference-maker in the passing game, which makes him virtually matchup-proof. Enjoy another week of Davis before Christian McCaffrey returns.
Robby Anderson (WR, CAR)
Anderson remains a solid WR2 in this game, but I prefer Moore because he has a better matchup against Lattimore. I don't think the Panthers offense will be able to support both receivers in this game, making Anderson more of a lukewarm play. I think the Saints will control the game with Kamara and Murray, limiting the opportunities for Anderson to reach his ceiling here.
Latavius Murray (RB, NO)
Murray is in a good spot here with a positive game script in a game that the Saints should control, making him firmly in play as a strong FLEX. Murray is a great pivot from Kamara in DFS tournaments because Kamara figures to be highly popular - playing Murray will give you some leverage on your competition. If the Saints get out to a double-digit lead, Murray can see more volume, which is definitely in the realm of possibility this week.
Tre'Quan Smith (WR, NO)
The Panthers pass defense has been stout, but they've given up big games to WR1s like Calvin Ridley (8 receptions, 136 yards) and Mike Evans (7 receptions, 104 yards, 1 touchdown). While Smith is obviously not on their level, he's the top option for the Saints on the perimeter, which puts him in play as a WR3/FLEX option. Smith can also be used in DFS because of his cheap price.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Matchups We Love:
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Allen is in a smash spot against a disastrous Jets team that ranks 20th in PPR PPG to opposing quarterbacks. Allen has disappointed against the Chiefs and Titans in the last two weeks, so you can bet on a much better performance here. There's a risk that the Bills jump out to an early lead and just run the clock out, but I really think that the coaching staff will use this game to allow Allen to regain his confidence and run up the score here.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Many observers (myself included) believed that it would take time for Diggs to adapt to a new quarterback and offense after a tumultuous offseason - that couldn't have been more untrue. Diggs has established himself as the clear-cut WR1 in Buffalo, racking up 24 targets in his last two games. He should have no issue getting loose in this Jets secondary that includes Pierre Desir (54.8 PFF Grade).
Jamison Crowder (WR, NYJ)
Crowder has a good matchup against a Bills Defense that has been gashed in the slot by players like Cooper Kupp (9 receptions, 107 yards, 1 touchdown) and Mike Gesicki (8 receptions, 130 yards, 1 touchdown). There's a decent chance that Sam Darnold returns for this game, which bodes well for Crowder, who should take advantage of slot corner Cameron Lewis (52.1 PFF Grade). Consider Crowder a volume-based WR2 here.
UPDATE: Crowder is listed as doubtful for Week 7, and not expected to play. Braxton Berrios should function as the top wide receiver option for the Jets, and gets a slight boost in value.
Other Matchups:
Devin Singletary (RB, BUF)
Singletary has a positive game script in a potential blowout against the Jets, which keeps him in play as a FLEX, but he's disappointed with Zack Moss out of the lineup for the last few weeks. Even in a good matchup against a Jets Defense allowing seventh-most PPR PPG to opposing running backs, it's hard to get too excited about Singletary with Moss back in the lineup. The only reason he's a lukewarm play is because of the game script.
Gabriel Davis (WR, BUF)
Davis gets thrust into more action with the injury to John Brown. The rookie has been impressive in Brown's absence, catching 5-of-9 targets for 58 yards against the Titans two weeks ago. The Jets have a burnable secondary that could allow Davis to get loose deep. Consider him an upside WR4 with appeal in DFS tournaments as a deep-threat with low ownership.
Hi, Justin taking over now. Thanks, Frank!
Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans
Matchups We Love:
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
Despite some struggles last game, Rodgers still ranks fifth in fantasy points per dropback and fifth in adjusted yards per attempt, and his receivers lead the league in target separation. The Texans allow the 12th-most passing yards per game and seventh-most passing touchdowns per game, setting up a strong performance by Rodgers.
Deshaun Watson (QB, HOU)
After a slow start, Watson is rolling now, throwing for seven touchdowns in the past two games. Now, he gets a Packers Defense that tied for 13th in passing touchdowns allowed per game. It's not the easiest matchup, but Watson is rolling right now and has to be considered a high-end play, even if the Packers are only allowing the 23rd-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
The Texans allow more fantasy points per game to running backs than any other team does. Opposing backs are averaging 161.5 rushing yards per game this season, significantly more than the second-worst team, Dallas, is allowing (136.3). Play running backs against the Texans. Do it. And pay up for Jones in DFS.
UPDATE: Aaron Jones is now expected to miss Week 7. Jamaal Williams can be considered a plug-and-play RB2/FLEX option, while Dillon looks more like an RB3/RB4 flier for deeper leagues. Both are also intriguing lower-cost options for DFS lineups, depending on the contest format.
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Adams finally returned last week, and was immediately targeted 10 times. He'll see double-digit targets again this week and should be considered a mid-end WR1 with upside. (Is "mid-end" a word? Doesn't matter -- you get what I mean here.)
Will Fuller V (WR, HOU)
Fuller has touchdowns in four consecutive games. He's fourth among wide receivers in completed air yards and seventh in yards per target. You've got to play him for the upside in all formats.
Robert Tonyan (TE, GB)
Houston allows the seventh-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends. At a shallow position, that's enough to get Tonyan into the TE1 tier this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Randall Cobb (WR, HOU)
Cobb found the end zone last week, but he was targeted just four times, finishing with three catches for 17 yards. He should have a solid role on this offense, but instead 2020 has been an up-and-down campaign for Cobb. If you want to give him a REVENGE GAME boost, sure, whatever, but he's still a WR5 play. Maybe he finds the end zone again, but I'm fine leaving a Cobb touchdown on my bench.
Other Matchups:
David Johnson (RB, HOU)
Green Bay allows the 11th-most rushing yards and second-most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs, so I should love David Johnson. But he had a smash matchup last week and rushed for just three yards per carry, so I can't recommend him as more than a mid-tier RB2 play. (Oh, yeah, "mid-tier" is the phrase I was looking for earlier.)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, GB)
MVS has been his usage really trend down after a 96-yard Week 1 performance. The Houston defense offers enough upside to make him playable, but I wouldn't be super excited about a guy who hasn't cracked 50 yards since Week 2, especially with two of those games coming without Adams in the lineup.
Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU)
Cooks has had two really strong games in a row -- strange those coincide with the team having a new head coach, hmm??? -- but with Green Bay allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, I'm worried this is a potential let down game for the former Rams wideout. He's worth a play as a WR3, but there's enough risk to keep him out of my DFS lineups.
Jordan Akins or Darren Fells (TE, HOU)
That "or" does a lot of work here. Akins has missed the past two games. If he sits out again, Fells has high-end TE2 upside. If he plays, then he has solid upside, but would lose a couple targets to Fells. Either way, there's streaming potential here, but nothing guaranteed.
Matchups Analysis - 4:05/4:25 PM ET Games
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers
Matchups We Love:
Gardner Minshew II (QB, JAC)
This Chargers Defense is STRUGGLING. They're allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, in large part because they're been bad at stopping the pass game and from limiting QB rushing. Minshew is an underrated runner and should also throw a lot in an offense-heavy game. High-end QB2 option.
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Jacksonville allows the eighth-most passing yards per game. Herbert is third among QBs in yards per attempt and eighth in fantasy points per game, plus sixth in true completion percentage. Herbert isn't playing like a rookie. Like Minshew, he's a high-end QB2 play this week in a game that'll feature a ton of passing.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Jacksonville hasn't been terrible when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, but a healthy Allen will have a target share big enough to make up for that. He's a solid WR2 play in a game that should feature very little defense.
Hunter Henry (TE, LAC)
Jacksonville allows the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Henry is top five among tight ends in receiving yards, completed air yards, and target rate. He hasn't been the most efficient player -- he's just 19th at the position in fantasy points per route run and 26th in fantasy points per target -- but his projected volume should make up for that.
Matchups We Hate:
Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR, JAC)
Shenault had just three catches last week. He's had good games, but he still hasn't broken out, and with D.J. Chark as healthy as he's likely been all year, I wouldn't start Shenault as more than a WR5.
Other Matchups:
James Robinson (RB, JAC)
Robinson's lack of yards lately make me low on him this week, but his huge touch share in Jacksonville does make him playable as a low-end RB2 play every week, even against a Chargers team allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs.
Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley (RB, LAC)
Jacksonville allows the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Jackson and Kelley's split of the touches makes neither a sure-fire play, but both have RB3 value this week. It's just...well, you'd like a clearer idea of who gets the most touches. It's probably Jackson.
D.J. Chark Jr. (WR, JAC)
Last week, Chark returned from injury and immediately had 14 targets. If he was 100 percent healthy, I'd be all over him this week, but there are still enough injury concerns and enough other weapons here to push him down to low-end WR2 territory. Play him in season-long, but be a little wary in DFS.
Keelan Cole (WR, JAC)
Cole had a huge Week 6, catching six passes for 143 yards. But he's mostly been a middling slot receiver option all year, and one really good game isn't going to change my mind about him. He's a fine flex in deep, full PPR leagues, but in shallower formats, I'd probably look elsewhere.
Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
There will be a lot of passing yards in this game. Williams has a good chance of getting a lot of them, like he did when he had 109 yards last week. But he's also had two games with under 20 yards, and that volatility has me lower on him than I probably should be.
San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots
Matchups We Love:
Cam Newton (QB, NE)
The 49ers allow more rushing yards per game to quarterbacks than any other team, which is probably good reason to play Cam Newton as a high-end QB2. Sure, they allow the fourth-fewest passing yards per game, but I don't think that makes a huge impact on Newton.
Also, I had to love at least one matchup in this game, right?
Matchups We Hate:
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, SF)
New England allows the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game. Garoppolo is 19th in yards per attempt, 27th in fantasy points per game, and 27th in true completion percentage. Meh.
New England Running Backs
It's the same old story of not trusting any Patriots running backs. San Francisco allows the second-fewest fantasy points to the position, and the Damien Harris, Rex Burkhead, James White trio all have some volatile touch numbers that I just can't get behind any of them as more than a Hail Mary RB4 play. In PPR leagues James White can be considered an RB3/FLEX play.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)
Deebo Samuel is back and Aiyuk was targeted three times last week. Sure, he scored a touchdown, but he was targeted three times. In a game that looks like a defensive battle, I'm not interested in Aiyuk.
N'Keal Harry (WR, NE)
Harry was targeted twice last week and didn't have a catch. He's had one game with more than 39 yards. It's time to hop off of the N'Keal Harry train.
Other Matchups:
Jerick McKinnon and JaMycal Hasty (RB, SF)
The Niners are a run-heavy team. New England allows the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. If Raheem Mostert was playing, I might love him just for the fact that he'd get so many carries, but McKinnon and Hasty will likely split things a little too much. I'd say both have low-end RB3/FLEX upside, but the Patriots Defense is just a little too scary to trust them as anything more than that.
Deebo Samuel (WR, SF)
14 targets already in two games back for Samuel. It didn't work out against Miami, but it did against the Rams, who he had six catches for 66 yards and a touchdown against. A versatile receiver, Samuel's target share should make him playable, though it's not a matchup I love very much.
Julian Edelman (WR, NE)
He hasn't had fewer than six targets in a game yet, so for that reason, he's a WR3 play, though his past three weeks do show that his downside is very, very, very low. Like, rock bottom low, so keep that in mind.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
He's George Kittle. You start him as a TE1. But New England allows the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season. This is not the week to use Kittle in your DFS lineups.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Matchups We Love:
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Mahomes hasn't been MAHOMES this year, but he's still fourth in fantasy points per game and third in fantasy points per dropback. He's a top-two quarterback heading into every single game.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Hill remains the one dependable wide receiver in this Chiefs offense. He has five touchdowns and is fifth among wide receivers in fantasy points per target. Hill's a solid WR1 play.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Denver's been fine against tight ends, but not good enough for me to pivot off Kelce, especially in a week where the other big name tight end, George Kittle, has a noticeably worse matchup. If you pay up at the position in DFS, it should be for Kelce.
Matchups We Hate:
Drew Lock (QB, DEN)
The Chiefs allow the 11th-fewest fantasy points to opposing passers. Lock returned last week and completed just 41.67 percent of his passes with a pair of interceptions. Hard to see a reason why I'd start him.
Le'Veon Bell (RB, KC)
We don't know what Bell's workload will look like if he does play, so the smart move here is to leave him on your bench of another week.
Mecole Hardman (WR, KC)
I can't remember where I saw this, but someone said that Hardman is the insurance policy for Hill, not for Sammy Watkins, so with Watkins out, we can't just expect Hardman to suddenly be relevant. After not catching a single pass last week, that appears to be true.
Jerry Jeudy (WR, DEN)
Always weird when a rookie sees his role lessen over the course of a season, but Jeudy has just four catches in the past two games. He's got big-play upside but is still probably just a low-end WR3 option.
Other Matchups:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)
Bell will eat into his role somewhat, but CEH is 16th at running back in fantasy points per game and second in number of big runs. He hasn't been the most efficient player -- his -8.8 expected points added is, uhhhhhhhhhhh, not good -- but I think even with the Bell addition, he's a low-end RB2 play.
Melvin Gordon III and Phillip Lindsay (RB, DEN)
Still plenty we don't know here, like if Gordon will be suspended or not. For now, let's go with this: if Gordon plays, he's an RB2 against a run defense that's allowed the third-most rushing yards. If he doesn't, Lindsay is a slightly lower-end RB2 play against a run defense that's allowed the third-most rushing yards.
Tim Patrick (WR, DEN)
While Jeudy is trending down, Tim Patrick has suddenly come to life, posting consecutive 100-yard games. Patrick is the receiver to trust here, but the Chiefs allow the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, so you can't trust him too much. Consider him a WR3 play with a low floor but good upside.
Noah Fant (TE, DEN)
A pretty neutral matchup for tight ends, I'm shying away from Fant in DFS because of the ankle injury that's kept him off the field recently. If he does play, he's in the low-end TE1 conversation in season-long due to his talent, but the targets haven't always been there and he'll be at less than 100 percent. Enough reason for me to pivot elsewhere in some places.
UPDATE: Noah Fant is expected to play in Week 7.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Las Vegas Raiders
Note: The entire Raiders offensive line was sent home over COVID concerns. This game is currently off of the books at most locations. It probably happens, but there's enough concern for me to mention it.
Matchups We Love:
Tom Brady (QB, TB)
The Raiders allow the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and while Brady has really ceased being the elite version of Tom Brady, he's pushing the ball downfield more, ranking 10th in air yards per attempt. He's just 19th in fantasy points per dropback, but this is still a good matchup for Brady, especially if you're looking for someone to provide high-end QB2 production.
Ronald Jones II (RB, TB)
It's RoJo SZN. Three 100-yard games in a row for Jones now, who since Week 4 is sixth in the NFL in positional rush attempt rate among running backs. Big workload. Big production. And big chances against a Raiders team allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Chris Godwin (WR, TB)
The matchup is just so-so, but Godwin gets a boost here by being the most reliable pass-catching option on this team. You should considered him a high-end WR2 with upside at this point.
Darren Waller (TE, LV)
Some rankings for Waller among tight ends: third in red zone targets, second in receptions, third in receiving yards, second in true catch rate, fourth in fantasy points per game. Waller's a top tight end and should be started that way, regardless of matchup.
Matchups We Hate:
Derek Carr (QB, LV)
Very good chance that the Raiders whole starting offensive line misses this one. Vegas had the 12th-best adjusted sack rate, but throw that out the window if we're looking at a lot of backup linemen. Carr will be under pressure all day and while he's completed half his passes when pressured this year, I still think there's too much downside.
Nelson Agholor and Hunter Renfrow (WR, LV)
Allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, this Tampa defense should be able to shut a lot of stuff down this week. Neither Agholor nor Renfrow have a target share large enough to make up for the horrendous matchup.
Other Matchups:
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
Tampa allows the eighth-fewest fantasy points to the running back position. Josh Jacobs is eighth at running back in fantasy points per game. What gives on Sunday? Start Jacobs as a RB2 like usual, but know that there exists the great possibility he gets bottled up, and his pass-game usage isn't enough to boost him if a negative game script happens.
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
Evans continues to get very few yards in games where Chris Godwin plays. In those three games, Evans has 14 TOTAL receiving yards. Uhhhh? Of course, Week 6 was also his first time not scoring a touchdown all year, so you still play him for the scoring upside.
Henry Ruggs III (WR, LV)
Yeah, I hate this Raiders offense this week, but Ruggs has the kind of big-play upside that makes him worth a dart throw in deeper leagues. He had just two catches last week, but finished with 118 yards and a touchdown.
Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB)
Gronk caught his first Tompa Brady touchdown last week. He was targeted eight times, suggesting that actually the Bruce Arians offense will use tight ends. Still, some less-than-stellar performances earlier in the season make me hesitant to use him as more than a TE2 still, even if I probably should get over that worry at this point.
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Matchups We Love:
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
The Seahawks allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, which is helped (or, hurt, I guess) by the fact that they allow the seventh-most rushing yards to QBs. This is setting up to be a huge Kyler Murray game. He's a QB1 this week and someone I'd definitely pay up for in DFS.
Chris Carson (RB, SEA)
Arizona allows the ninth-most receiving yards to running backs and the 13th-most fantasy points per game. Carson's role as the lead back for Seattle makes him a solid RB2 play.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, ARI)
Even though Hopkins had just two catches last week, he's still been targeted at least seven times in every game, and we can call that game a fluke. Especially heading into a contest that'll feature a ton of offense, especially through the air for Arizona. Murray/Hopkins stacks will be expensive in DFS, but could pay off big.
Matchups We Hate:
Greg Olsen (TE, SEA)
Just one game with more than 35 receiving yards. Can't trust Olsen as more than a desperation TE2 at this point.
Whoever The Cardinals Start At Tight End
Someone named Darrell Daniels appears to be the lead tight end here. Avoid this position group.
Other Matchups:
Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)
The Cardinals Defense is allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, though they've yet to play a truly good quarterback. Wilson is an easy QB1 play in season-long, but there's just a slight bit of worry that the Cardinals defense is for real, so I'd probably not pay up for Wilson in DFS.
Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds (RB, ARI)
Drake had a big Week 6, which was odd considered how poorly he had been playing. Lack of involvement in the passing game plus the fact that Seattle's defense seems to work as a funnel for passing production at the expense of the run game has me low on Drake and Edmonds, especially in DFS. In season-long, Drake's fine as a low-end RB2 play, while Edmonds is maybe an RB4 option?
D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)
Look, both of these guys are must-start players each week in season-long. That's true now. It's true next week. It's true as long as both are suiting up. But the Cardinals do allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers, so neither player is a great DFS call. Again, season-long managers: start them.
Christian Kirk (WR, ARI)
Two strong games have helped us forget how inconsistent that Kirk was the start the year, right? Meh, maybe not. His first three games saw him average two catches for 25.3 yards per contest. He's a WR3/4 play with the risk that he completely vanishes, but with touchdown upside.
Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams
Click here to read about the Monday Night Football matchup between the Bears and Rams.
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