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Hi, y'all! Eight weeks of NFL action are in the books and we're moving on to another. Welcome to our Week 9 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. Each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information.
Frank Ammirante will start off by covering the first set of games that begin at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, and Justin Carter will take you home with his analysis of the late afternoon and evening games. Let's help guide you to that Week 9 victory!
If you have any additional lineup questions, follow us on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and @juscarts and feel free to ask away. You can also read about the Monday Night Football matchup. Let's help guide you to that Week 9 victory!
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received five total writing awards and 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, tops in the industry! Congrats to all the award winners and nominees including Best NFL Series, MLB Series, NBA Writer, PGA Writer and Player Notes writer of the year. Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!
Matchups Analysis - 1:00 PM ET Games
Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons
Matchups We Love:
Jerry Jeudy (WR, DEN)
Jerry Jeudy saw a season-high 10 targets last week, putting up four receptions for 73 yards. The Falcons Defense is allowing the second-most PPR PPG to opposing wide receivers. PFF projects Jeudy to match up with A.J. Terrell (67.9 Coverage Grade). We could see a breakout game here in a projected shootout with a 49.5-point total. Consider Jeudy an upside WR3 this week.
Noah Fant (TE, DEN)
Fant has seen high volume since returning to the lineup, totaling 16 targets in two games. While the production hasn't been there yet (10 receptions for 85 yards over that span), he gets a terrific matchup against a Falcons defense allowing the most PPR PPG to tight ends.
Julio Jones (WR, ATL)
Since returning from injury, Julio has caught 23-of-29 targets for 371 yards and two touchdowns. Calvin Ridley is currently dealing with an ankle injury and could be out for this game, resulting in an uptick in volume for Julio. Broncos' top cornerback A.J. Bouye is dealing with a concussion, so Julio won't have to deal with him in this game. Fire him up as an elite WR1.
UPDATE: Calvin Ridley is officially out this week.
Other Matchups:
Drew Lock (QB, DEN)
Lock showed some signs of life last week in a comeback win over the Chargers, completing 26-of-41 passes for 248 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. This puts him on the streaming radar against a Falcons defense allowing the second-most PPG to opposing quarterbacks. You may also consider Lock in DFS tournaments to stack with Jeudy and Fant while adding Julio as well.
Melvin Gordon (RB, DEN)
Since Phillip Lindsay's return, Gordon has combined for 25 carries, 94 yards (3.76 YPC), and one touchdown in two games. The good news for his fantasy value is that he remains involved in the passing game (7 targets last week). The Falcons have been stout against the run (11th in PPR PPG allowed), but there is some touchdown upside in this potential shootout. Lindsay missed Wednesday's practice, so if he's out for this game, Gordon would be an upside RB2.
Matt Ryan (QB, DEN)
Ryan gets a bit of a downgrade this week with Ridley likely missing this game. The Broncos are tied for 22nd in PPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks, so this isn't a tough matchup, especially with Bouye out with a concussion. If Ridley suits up, Ryan would be moved to the "love list."
Todd Gurley (RB, ATL)
Gurley had a slow week on Thursday Night Football (18 carries, 46 yards, 1 TD), but it's likely that the Falcons limited his workload in a short week. Even though the Broncos are tough against the run (9th in PPR PPG allowed), we can expect Gurley to carry the ball 20+ times in this positive game script that should have several scoring opportunities.
Hayden Hurst (TE, ATL)
Hurst is starting to play more of a prominent role in this offense, totaling six or more targets in four of his last five games. If Ridley were to miss this game, we could safely project a bump in target share for Hurst. Even if Ridley plays, Hurst should provide TE1 production in this potential shootout.
Injury Notes:
Phillip Lindsay (RB, DEN): If he plays, it would be a downgrade for Gordon. Both would eat into each other's value, but remain FLEX options in a potential shootout. If Lindsay is out, Gordon is an RB2.
Calvin Ridley (WR, ATL): If he plays, he would be in the "other" section as a lukewarm play because it's likely that he won't be at less than 100%. It would be a minor downgrade to Hurst and Julio, but a major bump for Ryan.
UPDATE: Calvin Ridley is officially out this week.
Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills
Matchups We Love:
Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)
Wilson has been an elite QB1 every week, as he continues to air it out to his pair of stud receivers to help compensate for a weak defense. The Bills are tied for 12th in PPG to opposing quarterbacks, but with the way Russ is playing, he's a matchup-proof QB1. We should see a ton of fireworks here with a projected 55-point total.
Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)
Lockett took a backseat to Metcalf last week, but this sets up as a better spot for the former. The Bills have allowed Cooper Kupp (9 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD) and Mike Gesicki (8 REC, 130 YDS, 1 TD) to have big games against them in the slot, where Lockett makes his bread. Expect Russ to pepper his veteran receiver with targets this week.
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
After a blistering start to the season, Allen has slowed down in recent weeks - since Week 5, he's QB23 in PPG. The good news is that he has a get-right spot against a Seahawks Defense allowing the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Allen has overall QB1 upside this week in a likely shootout.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Like Allen, Diggs is in a smash-spot against a Seahawks defense allowing the most PPR PPG to opposing wide receivers. PFF projects Diggs to match up with Quinton Dunbar (56.7 Coverage Grade), which is a clear advantage to one of the best route-runners in football. Fire up Diggs has a WR1 this week.
Other Matchups:
DeeJay Dallas (RB, SEA)
Dallas took advantage of his opportunity with Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde on the shelf. Both veteran running backs are questionable this week - Carson won't practice until Friday and Hyde's status is also unclear. Dallas played 79% of the snaps and saw 23 touches against the 49ers, so he's the clear bell-cow if Carson and Hyde are out. Fire him up as a RB2 against a Bills Defense allowing 4.53 YPC (21st in NFL).
UPDATE: Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde have both been ruled out for this week.
D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA)
Metcalf is an absolute beast and clear-cut top-5 wide receiver in fantasy football right now, but he projects to be matched up with Tre'Davious White, who is one of the top corners in the game. While Metcalf remains a WR1, I prefer Lockett this week, especially in DFS formats.
Zack Moss (RB, BUF) & Devin Singletary (RB, BUF)
Moss is coming off the best game of his career, rushing 14 times for 81 yards and two touchdowns, but the rookie (53% of snaps) still split time with Singletary (49% of snaps) last week. Singletary was also effective, rushing 14 times for 81 yards. There's a chance that we could be witnessing the early stages of a changing of the guard in the Bills' backfield, but for now, consider both backs as interchangeable. Both backs are FLEX plays in this shootout.
John Brown (WR, BUF)
Even in this tough matchup, Brown is still on the WR3/4 fringe because he's simply not 100% right now. He missed Wednesday's practice with a knee injury, so it's still unclear if he'll suit up for this game. I would only consider using Brown in DFS tournaments as a contrarian play to gain leverage on players who use Diggs.
Cole Beasley (WR, BUF)
Beasley had a down game last week, catching two passes for only 21 yards, but he's back on the WR3 radar in this potential shootout. The only reason that he's not on the "love" list is that he's more of a floor play and I expect the targets to be funneled to Diggs. We also have to account for Brown's presence, as he'll still soak up some target share even at less than 100%.
Injury Notes:
Chris Carson (RB, SEA): If he plays, you can safely fire him up as an upside RB2 in this shootout. He would be a lukewarm play because he's at less than 100%.
Carlos Hyde (RB, SEA): If Hyde plays and Carson is out, the former would likely split time with Dallas, rendering both backs as low-end FLEX options.
UPDATE: Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde have both been ruled out for this week.
Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans
Matchups We Love:
Allen Robinson (WR, CHI)
Robinson is in a smash-spot here against a Titans Defense allowing the second-most PPR PPG to opposing wide receivers. PFF projects A-Rob to be matched up with Malcolm Butler (64.3 Coverage Grade), so this is a matchup to exploit. The Bears are likely to be playing from behind in this game, which means more potential volume for Robinson.
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
The Bears are decent against the run, ranking 13th in PPR PPG allowed, but we're betting on volume and game script here with Henry. The Bears are worse than their 5-3 record indicates, so I expect the Titans to control this game as home favorites. That means more usage for Henry and we all know about his immense upside in positive game scripts.
Matchups We Hate:
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)
The Bears are tied for 3rd in PPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks. They are also allowing only 6.6 yards per attempt (3rd in NFL), so this is a tough matchup for Tannehill. Whenever a non-elite fantasy quarterback is in a difficult spot like this one, it's hard to keep him in your lineup because of the depth of the position. That's the case with Tannehill here.
Corey Davis (WR, TEN)
Davis has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season, but this is a tough spot for him. The Bears are allowing the fourth-fewest PPR PPG to opposing wide receivers. PFF projects Davis to be matched up with Kyle Fuller (72.9 Coverage Grade), which is the tougher matchup of the two Bears' corners. It's tough to rely on Davis here as anything more than a WR3 in a game where we could see the Titans lean on the running game.
Other Matchups:
David Montgomery (RB, CHI)
Montgomery is receiving RB1 usage, but he's not doing much with the increased opportunity in Tarik Cohen's absence. In five games without Cohen, Montgomery is RB23 in PPR PPG despite averaging 19 touches per game during that span. Even in a strong matchup (Titans are 26th in PPR PPG), Monty is no more than a volume-based RB2 due to his plodding skillset.
Darnell Mooney (WR, CHI)
Mooney has established himself as the WR2 on this team in recent weeks, averaging 6.4 targets in his last five games. We have also seen him get loose downfield only for Nick Foles to throw an uncatchable ball. Mooney has a good matchup here in a positive game script for the passing game. He's on the WR3/4 fringe and it appears that his arrow is pointing upwards for the rest of the season.
A.J. Brown (WR, TEN)
The Bears Defense is tough, but PFF projects Brown to be matched up with rookie corner Jaylon Johnson (57.4 Coverage Grade) which bodes well. I expect the Titans to funnel targets to Brown in this one to try to take advantage of this matchup. We'll keep Brown in the lukewarm section because of the Bears defense, but don't be surprised to see him get loose for a big play this week.
Jonnu Smith (TE, TEN)
Smith has struggled mightily in recent weeks, catching 4-of-8 targets for 51 yards in his last three games combined. Perhaps he can become a focal point of this offense once again in a strong matchup - the Bears rank 22nd in PPR PPG to opposing tight ends.
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
Matchups We Hate:
Philip Rivers (QB, IND)
Rivers is playing well of late, turning in QB6 and QB8 finishes in his last two games, but this is a matchup to avoid against this nasty Ravens Defense. The Ravens have held opposing passers to 6.59 yards per attempt (2nd in NFL). We could see Rivers bump up his production due to sheer volume, but you're not starting him in any format against the Ravens. He's a mid-range QB2 here.
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
Taylor is banged up with an ankle injury, but he expects to play in a tough matchup against a Ravens defense allowing the third-fewest PPR PPG to opposing running backs. Taylor was outplayed by Jordan Wilkins last week. This has not been the explosive power back that we envisioned when he was selected by the Colts in the second round. Consider Taylor a low-floor FLEX in this matchup.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Andrews has quietly been one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy football, ranking as TE7 in PPR PPG despite being selected in the third round of fantasy drafts. This week, he takes on a Colts Defense allowing the fewest PPR PPG to opposing tight ends. You're still starting him in season-long leagues, but you need to temper your expectations and consider him as a mid-to-low tier TE1 in this matchup.
Other Matchups:
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
Jackson faces his second consecutive tough defense after having difficulties coping with the Steelers, who might have the best defense in football. The Colts are tied for 2nd in PPG allowed to opposing passers. The good news is that Lamar's speed and rushing ability might play well on the turf at Lucas Oil Stadium. Consider him a lukewarm play as a mid-range QB1 here.
J.K. Dobbins & Gus Edwards (RB, BAL)
Dobbins and Edwards have a tough matchup - the Colts are allowing the second-fewest PPR PPG to opposing running backs. However, we just saw these two backs combine for 200 rushing yards on 31 carries against the vaunted Steelers Defense. With Lamar at the helm, matchups don't really matter because of the wide-open running lanes that he opens up for his running backs. This keeps the duo as lukewarm FLEX plays even in a tough matchup.
Marquise Brown (WR, BAL)
Brown had a quiet game against the Steelers, catching only one pass for three yards and a touchdown. This led him to post tweet complaining about his lack of usage in the passing game (it was later deleted). Perhaps we could see Hollywood get the squeaky-wheel treatment here, which keeps him in play as a lukewarm option against a Colts defense that ranks 19th in PPR PPG allowed to wide receivers.
Injury Notes:
Mark Ingram (RB, SEA): If he plays, you Dobbins and Edwards would be added to the "hate" list because this backfield would once again become a three-headed monster.
Player Notes:
Colts RBs: If Taylor were to miss this game, Wilkins would become a volume-based, low-end FLEX and be included in the "hate" list, while Nyheim Hines would be a lukewarm play, especially in PPR formats.
Colts TEs: It's hard to rely on any of Trey Burton, Jack Doyle, and Mo Alie-Cox while each of them are in the lineup because they essentially split the snaps and target share.
Colts WRs: T.Y. Hilton looks like a shell of his former self. Michael Pittman Jr. returns to the lineup here, but we can't trust him yet. This is a situation to avoid.
Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs
Matchups We Love:
Christian McCaffrey (RB, CAR)
CMC returned to practice on Wednesday, making it likely that he makes his return just in time to face the defending Super Bowl champions. The Chiefs rank 16th in PPR PPG allowed to opposing running backs, but we could see CMC rack up check-down catches in a catch-up game script for the underdog Panthers.
UPDATE: Christian McCaffrey has been officially activated off of IR and will make his return this week.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)
CEH was barely used in a blowout win over the Jets, limited to only 21 yards on six carries, as the Chiefs opted to air it out. This is a smash spot for him in another positive game script with the Chiefs as home favorites. The Panthers are allowing the fourth-most PPR PPG to opposing running backs this season. We could see Andy Reid try to get his rookie RB back on track here.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Hill has a great matchup against a Panthers Defense that has really struggled against opposing WR1s, allowing big games to Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Keenan Allen. Hill got loose for 98 yards and two touchdowns last week and we can expect another strong game from the Cheetah here.
Other Matchups:
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, CAR)
Bridgewater will likely be forced to play catch-up all game long against the Chiefs, so the sheer volume can keep him on the streaming radar this week. The Chiefs Defense ranks 6th in PPG allowed to opposing passers, so temper your expectations. Bridgewater is a volume-based QB streamer this week.
Robby Anderson (WR, CAR)
PFF projects Anderson to get the better cornerback matchup here, lining up against Charvarius Ward (62.3 Coverage Grade). This is good news because the Chiefs defense has been tough against opposing wide receivers, allowing the fourth-fewest PPR PPG to them this season. The game script and CB matchup keeps Anderson in play as a volume-based WR3.
D.J. Moore (WR, CAR)
Moore has the tougher CB matchup according to PFF, lining up against Bashaud Breeland (79.2 Coverage Grade). Add in the fact that Moore is a bit volatile due to his high aDOT and you have a low-floor, volume-based WR3 in this matchup. The only reason why he's not in the "hate" list is because we could see the Panthers fall behind early, forcing them to air it out.
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Mahomes goes up against a run-funnel defense here, so when we consider that the Chiefs barely ran the ball last week, we could see them emphasize the run in this matchup. This makes Mahomes more of a lukewarm, but still Top-5 option this week - it's just not a smash spot, as the Panthers are allowing the seventh-fewest PPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Le'Veon Bell (RB, KC)
Like CEH, Bell has a great matchup, but he's in the lukewarm list as a FLEX play because he's still the second option in this backfield. I would expect him to turn in a much better performance than his "revenge game" spot against the Jets last week. It wouldn't surprise me to see Bell score his first touchdown as a Chief in this game.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Kelce is far and away the top tight end in the NFL, especially with Kittle on the shelf. While he remains TE1 in season-long leagues each and every week, it's hard to recommend him in DFS against a Panthers defense allowing the eight-fewest PPR PPG to opposing tight ends. This keeps Kelce in the lukewarm section.
New York Giants at Washington Football Team
Matchups We Love:
Evan Engram (TE, NYG)
Engram ranks third in tight end targets, now facing a Washington defense that is tied for 7th in PPR PPG allowed to opposing tight ends. I expect Washington to control this game, which puts Engram in a positive game script since we could see a pass-heavy approach. Washington is tough on wide receivers, so we could see the Giants attack the middle of the field with Engram.
Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS)
Gibson is in a great spot because of the game script, as I expect Washington to control this game due to their improving defense. The Giants rank 18th in PPR PPG allowed to opposing running backs, so this isn't exactly a tough matchup here. Perhaps the Washington coaching staff dedicated the bye week to figure out more ways to involve their converted WR at RB in the passing game. Fire up Gibson as an upside RB2 this week.\
Matchups We Hate:
Daniel Jones (QB, NYG)
Jones continues to be a turnover machine and it's starting to look more likely that he'll be replaced in the draft this coming offseason with the Giants projected to have a Top-3 pick. The Washington pass rush will pose problems for Jones. While we could see Jones air it out and add some production on the ground, it's too tough to rely on him in season-long leagues because of how deep quarterback is. He's just not playing well enough to warrant a start, even in DFS tournaments.
Darius Slayton (WR, NYG) & Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG)
It's hard to figure out which Giants receiver is going to have the better week on a game-to-game basis, so these two players have become interchangeable. Washington is allowing the second-fewest PPR PPG to opposing wide receivers, so they've become a matchup to avoid, especially in a game where their pass rush has an exploitable matchup.
Other Matchups:
Wayne Gallman (RB, NYG)
Gallman has looked like the best runner in this backfield. He's coming off a game where he ran 12 times for 44 yards against the vaunted Bucs defense. Washington has limited opposing running backs to the seventh-fewest PPR PPG, but we could see Gallman catch a few check downs to warrant consideration as a floor play at FLEX.
UPDATE: Devonta Freeman has been ruled out for this week.
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)
McLaurin will be shadowed by James Bradberry, who has been one of the top corners in the NFL this season. However, last time these two teams met, McLaurin caught 7-of-12 passes for 74 yards, so he remains a lukewarm play as a volume-based, high-end WR2.
Hi, Justin taking over now. Thanks, Frank!
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Matchups We Love:
Deshaun Watson (QB, HOU)
Freed from the restraints of Bill O'Brien, Deshaun Watson is on fire, posting four 300-yard games in a row. Make it five straight on Sunday against a Jaguars Defense allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing passers.
David Johnson (RB, HOU)
This is a game with two bad defenses. That will favor Houston, as they've got the better quarterback situation, and that should bring a strong positive wave to the entire Texans offense. David Johnson, for instance, hasn't necessarily been playing well, but he's been getting touches. This week, he should get touches and has a good chance to play well. Consider him a strong RB2 play.
James Robinson (RB, JAC)
Expect Jacksonville to keep leaning on Robinson, even more than they did when Gardner Minshew II was the quarterback here. His huge carry percentage makes him a strong RB2 play with RB1 upside, especially against a Texans Defense that will be without a lot of their linebackers due to COVID-19.
Will Fuller V and Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU)
Both players have been playing some really good football lately. Fuller has a touchdown in five consecutive games. Cooks has nine or more targets in three consecutive games. Against this Jaguars defense, I'd start both of them. Fuller's a better play because of touchdown upside, but both have WR2 upside, even if Cooks is probably technically more of a WR3.
Darren Fells (TE, HOU)
He's not a TE1 play, but if you need a streamer this week, Fells takes on the defense that's allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, and he had a touchdown the first time these teams faced off.
Matchups We Hate:
Jake Luton (QB, JAC)
Friends, ignore that the Texans defense allows the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. You aren't playing Jake Luton unless your only other option is playing Garrett Gilbert, in which case...I guess you play Jake Luton?
Non-Chark Jaguars Receivers
I just can't trust Laviska Shenault Jr., Keelan Cole, or anyone else with Luton at quarterback.
Other Matchups:
D.J. Chark Jr. (WR, JAC)
Man. I don't know what to think here. You start Chark against this defense, but since we know absolutely nothing about Jake Luton in an NFL uniform, we have no idea what to expect from this Luton/Chark connection. He'll be a very boom/bust guy, but if you play any Jaguars receiver, it's got to be him.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Matchups We Love:
Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)
Yeah, play Dalvin Cook against this defense. Pay up for him in DFS. No question marks here.
Marvin Jones Jr. and Marvin Hall (WR, DET)
With Kenny Golladay out, expect Jones to take advantage of a porous Vikings secondary. Start him as a WR2 against a team whose entire secondary is hurt. As for Hall, he's risky as last week might have been an illusion, but I love, love, love him as a sleeper play in DFS this week, even if he's too risky for season-long lineups.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
With no Golladay, Hockenson will see his role in this offense grow. Don't be surprised to see 10-plus targets for the second-year tight end this week, ho should be on your TE1 radar due to his touchdown upside.
Matchups We Hate:
Irv Smith Jr. (TE, MIN)
He's finally sometimes looking like the player we thought he'd turn into, but I don't think this is a week where we should be expecting production from Smith. The Lions allow the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Smith is a low-floor TE2 play.
Other Matchups:
Matthew Stafford (QB, DET)
Stafford is currently on the COVID list but it seems like he'll be able to play this weekend. Minnesota's defense is in bad shape, so if Stafford does indeed suit up, I'd consider him a high-end QB2, even though Kenny Golladay won't be around to help him out.
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
I want to like Kirk Cousins, mostly because I'm forced to start him in two leagues. The Lions allow the 13th-most fantasy points per game to the position, but Cousins is Cousins, and the Vikings will lean on Dalvin Cook a lot in this one. Consider him an alright streaming play based on the matchup, but remember that he's Kirk Cousins.
D'Andre Swift and Adrian Peterson (RB, DET)
This is not a backfield that I want many parts of, but Minnesota allow the 16th-most fantasy points per game to the position, so I can't consider this a total wasteland. Of the two, I like Swift and his growing role more, making him a low-end RB2 play, while Peterson is more of an RB3.
Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
The problem with this offense is that it isn't sustaining two fantasy-relevant wide receives on a weekly basis like it did when Stefon Diggs was here. This is a good matchup for both guys, but both have some strong bust potential. Thielen's a WR2. Jefferson's a WR3. One of them probably has a huge game. The other doesn't.
Matchups Analysis - 4:05/4:25 PM ET Games
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Matchups We Love:
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
The biggest surprise of the year has to be that Herbert is a clear QB1 play virtually every week, right? He remains a strong play against a Raiders defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the position. If Herbert's on your roster and your other QB isn't in the Mahomes/Russ tier, you're starting Herbert.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Allen will get a lot of targets this week, and that should turn into a lot of production. Consider him a strong WR1 play as long as this hot run for Herbert continues.
Darren Waller (TE, LV)
The Chargers allow the ninth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Waller's by far the most reliable weapon for Derek Carr. That's a good combo. Start Waller as a TE1.
Matchups We Hate:
Joshua Kelley (RB, LAC)
This has become Justin Jackson's backfield. Kelley played just 24 percent of snaps last game and doesn't project to get enough touches to be a solid play.
Raiders Wide Receivers
Here's the thing. I'd like this game a lot more for the Raiders if I trusted their receivers. Henry Ruggs III is a deep threat whose quarterback doesn't involve deep guys enough. Nelson Agholor was targeted twice last week. And Hunter Renfrow is in the lower parts of the "slot receivers who people forget about but are decent plays" tier of guys. Lot of "meh" here.
Other Matchups:
Derek Carr (QB, LV)
The Chargers allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, but we're not letting that convince us to play Carr in one-QB season-long leagues, right? But for DFS or as a second QB? Yeah, I like Carr in those scenarios.
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
I think this is a week where Jacobs being one-dimensional hurts him somewhat. The Chargers have allowed just two rushing scores to running backs, and while projected usage means Jacobs should still be started as an RB2 play, his floor is lower than it might otherwise be.
Justin Jackson (RB, LAC)
Jackson has overtaken Joshua Kelley here as the primary back. He had 20 touches last game, enough opportunities to make him an RB2 play with RB1 upside against a Raiders defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
Yeah, he's always a boom/bust guy, but maybe this is a week where he can boom? Except Vegas is close to the middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed per game to wide receivers, so...I don't know, y'all. Williams confuses me more than pretty much anyone in the league.
Hunter Henry (TE, LAC)
The Raiders have been pretty good against tight ends and Herbert's play hasn't had a huge impact on Hunter Henry. He's a high-end TE2, but I probably would look elsewhere in DFS.
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals
Matchups We Love:
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
I mean, yeah, the Dolphins are allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, but Murray is matchup proof at this point. Start him as a QB1.
Chase Edmonds (RB, ARI)
Miami allows the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs. Edmonds should see virtually all of the running back work for the Cardinals. Start him as a high-end RB2 play.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, ARI)
Like Kyler, not the workd's greatest matchup as he'll see a lot of Byron Jones, but Hopkins is too good to really downgrade this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
Tua won his first NFL start, but he was 12-for-22 for just 93 yards. Those are obviously not the kind of numbers you want to see in fantasy. He'll probably cross the 100-yard mark this week, but we're not ready to move Tua into the starting tier yet. He's probably a better play than Jake Luton, I guess?
Matt Breida, Jordan Howard and Patrick Laird (RB, MIA)
Breida reportedly is dealing with a hamstring injury. Jordan Howard was a healthy scratch for three games in a row. With Myles Gaskin out with an MCL sprain, this backfield suddenly becomes a mess that I really want no part of. If Breida's a full go, I suppose he's a fine RB3 play, but he'll have a very low floor. Patrick Laird should be in the mix as well, likely catching passes out of the backfield
UPDATE: Matt Breida has officially been ruled out for this week.
Preston Williams (WR, MIA)
He was already trending poorly before Tua. After two catches for 15 yards last week, I don't know how you can trust Williams in a lineup this week.
Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)
Well, the Cardinals allow the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends, and Gesicki has one catch for eight yards in the past two games. The trend is bad here. I'm trying to avoid putting Gesicki in as many lineups as possible.
Other Matchups:
DeVante Parker (WR, MIA)
The good times might be over for Parker. In Tua's first start, Parker was targeted twice, catching one pass for a three-yard touchdown. I think you start him as a WR3 and hope for the best this week, but whew, the floor is basically zero.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys
Matchups We Love:
Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT)
The Dallas secondary isn't as bad as you'd expect when it comes to allowing QB fantasy points -- they're right in the middle of the field -- but I still see this being a game where Roethlisberger exceeds expectations and can put up low-end QB1 numbers.
James Conner (RB, PIT)
Dallas allows the eighth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Conner has 18 or more touches in every game since his eight-touch Week 1. This is a great spot for Conner, who projects to be a low-end RB1 play.
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)
Last week was not great, but Johnson is still the WR1 in Pittsburgh. Until DFS pricing catches up with that, he's a great play in that format. And against this young Cowboys secondary, he's a solid WR2 play.
Matchups We Hate:
The Dallas Cowboys Offense, Except Ezekiel Elliott
The quarterback will either be Garrett Gilbert or Cooper Rush. The Steelers Defense is the most expensive D/ST ever in DFS for a reason. I want no part of this team, except maybe for Zeke. But the wide receivers all should be dropped at least a tier below where they'd usually go and...yeah, this could be ugly.
Other Matchups:
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)
He'll probably get enough early opportunities to put up RB2 numbers as Dallas leans on the running game before things get away from them. But Zeke's not going in my DFS lineups, because the Cowboys will be futilely passing in the second half as they trail by 45.
JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool (WR, PIT)
Neither is as safe a play as Johnson and the chance this game gets out of hand and is run-heavy in the second half lowers their floors and ceilings. Both are fine WR3 plays in season-long, but there's enough risk to stay away from both in DFS.
Eric Ebron (TE, PIT)
Dallas allows the 12th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, though Ebron hasn't topped 52 yards in a game this season, so even in a plus matchup, I think his ceiling is limited. But if that ceiling is 50 yards and a touchdown, then he's definitely worth playing if you don't have a top tight end on your roster.
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matchups We Love:
Tom Brady (QB, TB)
New Orleans is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Brady's last five games have seen him throw for 14 touchdowns and just one interception, averaging 287.2 yards per game. Start him as a QB1.
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
I was VERY tempted to move Kamara out of this spot, but he's simply going to have too many opportunities for me to not call him a RB1 play. Yes, I know the Tampa defense allow the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, but that's a reason to not play Latavius Murray, not a reason to downgrade Kamara, who remains a high-ceiling DFS play worth paying up for.
Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB)
The Saints allow the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Gronk has touchdowns in three consecutive games. I think it's time to consider Gronk a TE1 for the rest of the season.
Matchups We Hate:
Drew Brees (QB, NO)
Friends, I've moved Brees into this section. Taking on a defense allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks will do that, and while Brees has mostly been fine this year, he did throw for a season-low 160 yards last time these teams faced. He's a fine QB2 play, but I think there are other quarterbacks who make a lot more sense to play.
Non-Michael Thomas Saints Receivers
I don't like this Saints passing game this week, which means I'm lower on Emmanuel Sanders, Tre'Quan Smith, and whoever else lines up at wideout than I'd normally be. I'd drop them all 10 or so spots over where I'd normally rank them.
Other Matchups:
Ronald Jones II and Leonard Fournette (RB, TB)
Both of these guys could theoretically be No. 1 backs somewhere, but in Tampa they're winding up splitting things too much. We thought this was RoJo's backfield, but then Fournette got healthy and has 26 carries in the past two games. Against a good Saints run defense, both guys rate as RB3/FLEX options with low floors.
Michael Thomas (WR, NO)
Thomas was supposed to be THE WR1 this year, but injuries have kept him off the field. He played one game, catching three passes for 17 yards against this team in Week 1. He's got to be deployed as a WR1 in season-long, but I'm not paying up for him in DFS until I see if he looks healthy on the field.
Matchups Depending On Chris Godwin:
Chris Godwin (WR, TB)
Godwin fractured a finger and sat out last week. He might be back. If he is, his role on this team makes him a low-end WR1 play.
UPDATE: Chris Godwin is expected to play this week.
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
If Godwin is out, Evans is a high-end WR2 based on projected target share and red zone usage. But if Godwin plays, Evans is potentially going to be a disaster, as he's been barely playable when Godwin plays. You still start him in season-long, but DO NOT PLAY EVANS IN DFS IF GODWIN PLAYS.
UPDATE: Chris Godwin is expected to play this week.
Antonio Brown (WR, TB)
Oh hey, Brown's first game with Tampa! If Godwin plays, it's hard to know what the target breakdown looks like, but if Godwin is out, I love Brown as a WR3 play, as he'd likely see a good amount of work all over the field.
Jared Cook (TE, NO)
Tampa's been decent against tight ends. Cook keeps getting touchdowns, but is doing so with pretty low usage, which is worrisome. He's a pretty boom/bust guy who just happens to have boomed a lot this year and is fine as a low-end TE1 play.
Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football
New England Patriots at New York Jets
Click here to read about the Monday Night Football matchup between the Patriots and Jets.
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